Green shoots are not enough: why Gordon must have a better plan B

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

Thankfully, after a long winter, the signs of economic recovery that Gordon Brown has been craving for so long are beginning to appear. They are by no means definitive and there is evidently still a long way to go before the recession is over – there will likely still be further increases in unemployment and credit is hardly free-flowing – but economists are beginning to see promising signs in house price rises and industrial production. Many of these improvements are the direct result of government policy, as I have shown elsewhere.

But, comments beneath Liam Byrne’s cause for optimism yesterday do not inspire me with hope that economic turnaround will bring Labour new success in the polls. For many, it seems, too much murky water has passed under the bridge of trust, and no matter what evidence they are given that Gordon Brown has stewarded the country through the worst economic downturn in decades, millions will not renew their support for Labour by 2010.

Yesterday, I asked a question fundamental to Labour’s electoral success considering the economic strategy of the last 18 months and the belief that Gordon Brown would eventualy be seen as an economic saviour:

Will people still reject Labour, even if the figures of economic turnaround are proven to be lasting and that government action is proven to have shortened the recession?

The responses were fairly categorical:

“Still wouldn’t vote for him. If you replaced the majority of the cabinet then maybe I would think about it, but we’ve been lied to and spun so many times over the last 12 years I couldn’t trust them.”

“If a government says they’ve taken actions to deal with a recession without bothering to explain (truthfully) the process, or when people will see the results, then a huge gap in knowledge and trust develops for the opposition to fill. Especially for the man on the street, who sees no improvement at the moment. If Gordon had said last year ‘we’re doing this, and it will take until late 2009 to see the first signs of it working’ people may have given him some slack. As it is he has built on a failure to do this by being caught lying so openly it’s beyond denial. Unfortunately GB and the spin meisters have effectively handed the next election to the Tories.”

“The Brown effect will outweigh any positives the government might be able to justify on the economy. Brown will never be given credit for saving the economy, because people think he was part of the problem. He never apologised for promising to end boom and bust. He never accepted any of the blame. People have long memories.”

“When I go onsite the conversation turns towards GB…I asked why he thought GB was universally hated and this gent relayed a torrent of descriptions that makes Jeremy Clarkson’s comments about GB look positively lightweight. Strangely though when I asked what he thought about Labour he said he’d still vote for Labour if they dropped a couple of policies and got “a half decent chap in the top job”. He may have disliked GB, he might not be best pleased with some of the ideas, but with some minor changes he would vote Labour over Conservative. I won’t repeat what he thought of Cameron.”

“Add to this the sleaze factor, John Major was in a similar situation of pulling the country our of recession and the sleaze of his Ministers (not as expansive as expenses etc) dragged at his heels. Also when Ministers become too arrogant the public seek renewal and look for humility and new ideas.”

“Alex, I am no fan of Brown, so my comments should be viewed with that in mind. However, I think that Brown has so damaged the government and the Labour party, not only since he came to power, but also in the run up to the take over with his positioning and leaks to the press, that he is a liability. People simply do not like him, and they will not vote for him.”

The comments go on.

So Gordon Brown and Labour’s electoral strategists cannot rely on economic upturn to revive Labour’s hopes. Even if Labour’s economic policies may one day be celebrated, it seems that one swallow – now matter how big – cannot make a summer.

Instead, a new set of big, bold policies – and, yes, a tangible change in the culture at Downing Street – will have to emerge. Otherwise, green shoots or not, Labour will lose the next election, and lose it big.