Election day: updates from Glasgow North East

By Alex Smith/ @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: My analysis of what the result means.

UPDATE: The results are in:

Willie Bain (Lab): 12,231

David Kerr (SNP): 4,120

Ruth Davidson (Con): 1,075

Charlie Bailey (BNP): 1,013

Eileen Baxendale (Lib Dems): 474

Total votes: 20,638

Turnout: 33%

Labour majority: 8,111

UPDATE: 1.45am – still no results; they’re expected before 2am.

UPDATE: Wille Bain: “This is a great endorsement for Gordon Brown in his efforts to set the economy back on track and it shows the election is very much game on.” Steady on, Willie.

UPDATE: It looks certain that Wille Bain will be the next MP for Glasgow North East now, with the SNP in second and – perhaps – BNP in third. The key aspects still to come will be the scale of the victory, the turnout and the majority; that’s where the real meaning lies in this election.

UPDATE: SNP concede defeat, according to Sky News.

UPDATE: Radio Scotland says Tories think Labour majority may be 6,000; Lib Dem sources “expect” to lose deposit. Sky News also reporting a likely 5,000+ majority for Labour.

UPDATE: 35% turnout, according to Radio Scotland; 17,000 votes.

UPDATE: Turnout is likely to be between 35-40%, the lowest ever in Scotland.

UPDATE: The SNP are privately conceding defeat. Privately, of course.

UPDATE: Severin Carell of the Guardian says the SNP “fear the pensioner vote…out early and voting Labour”. He also says that the BNP’s vote is likely to be in the low hundreds – and that they may lose their deposit.

UPDATE: Guido has £100 on Labour to win.

UPDATE: No one really knows exactly what time the results are expected. I initially heard midnight, but am now hearing 2.30am. Could that be a sign of a higher turnout than initially expected?

UPDATE: Turnout in the 2005 general election here was 45.8% and in this year’s Norwich North by-election it was 45.9%. The Glasgow Evening Times predicts nothing more than 35% today in Glasgow, Mike Smithson suggests it might be more.

UPDATE: Labour Students are still out in force in Glasgow, as they have been over the past few weeks.

UPDATE: LocalNewsGlasgow says (via Paul Owen):

“Willie Bain’s Labour HQ is bustling with party workers and campaigners. There is an expectant and excited yet nervous buzz about the place… From a huddle of red-jacketed canvassers I hear one man in his 30s tell a younger gang of activists; “If you don’t know what to say then just tell them; Vote Willie Bain, Vote Willie Bain, Vote Willie Bain!” …”

UPDATE: It’s been overcast all day in Glasgow. Now rain’s looking likely.

UPDATE: Mike Smithson considers what the turnout might be today.

UPDATE: Alex Salmond cagey on the result.

UPDATE: Ladbrokes‘ latest odds:

Labour: 1/6
SNP: 4/1
Jury Team: 101/1
BNP: 101/1
Conservatives: 101/1
Greens: 101/1
Liberal Democrats: 101/1

UPDATE: 2005 general election result:

Michael Martin (Speaker-Lab): 15,153
John McLaughlin (SNP): 5,019
Doris Kelly (Socialist Labour): 4,036
Graham Campbell (Scottish Socialist): 1,402
Daniel Houston (Scottish Unionist): 1,266
Scott McLean (BNP): 920
Joe Chambers (Ind): 622

–

The battle for Glasgow North East culminates today with the long-awaited by-election. Labour’s candidate Wille Bain is expected to win, but no doubt there’ll be several ups, downs and other news stories coming out of Glasgow today. I’ll be updating this post with news from the frontline throughout the day and evening.

In the meantime, have a look over Willie’s PPC Profile, his campaign diary over the past threeweeks and Freeman of the city of Glasgow Alex Ferguson’s endorsement.

John Harris has been out speaking to local people in Glasgow, and has put together an interesting video featuring Willie, as well as a confrontation with the BNP and conversation with John Smeaton.

You can also watch Willie’s campaign video below and join his team for the last crucial hours.