Ed Miliband & Gordon Brown must twist arms at Copenhagen

By Luke Bozier / @luke_cb

We are now just one working day away from the opening of the COP15 summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, which as we know by now will bring world leaders, scientists and civil society together for eleven long days of debate on an agreement to cut global emissions. The outcome of COP15 is uncertain, but one thing we know for sure is that months of hyperbole will at last come to an end.

To be clear, there is a need for action. Whether or not you believe that climate change is man-made, there is stark evidence pointing to rising global temperatures which could have devastating effects for millions. A recent meeting of experts gathered at Oxford University concluded that there is a chance of a 4 degree centigrade rise in temperatures if radical steps aren’t taken as early as 2012. The world’s eyes will be trained on the Danish capital for the next two weeks, as heads of state and government hammer out an agreement which will, in the best case, see immediate action being taken to reduce global emissions.

But not everybody comes to the table eager to reach a sweeping deal. The Americans particularly are in a difficult position, as President Obama does not yet have the authority from Congress to agree to binding emission limits on his own. The Kyoto Protocol famously failed the American ratification process even though Bill Clinton signed it himself in 1997. For Obama to agree to wide-ranging cuts at COP15 would be a merely symbolic gesture. The major powers of the developing world, most notably China, India & Brazil are reluctant to put their nations in a position which would prevent the rapid economic development which their huge populations need to escape poverty.

Agreement will be necessary however, and even a symbolic gesture from America, along with concessions from the major developing nations, would be a good sign of progress. With mid-term elections coming up next year in the US, now would be the optimum time for President Obama to attempt ratification of a new agreement; and surely if anybody can do it, the most popular president in years can.

As is often the case in major international negotiations, Britain finds itself somewhere in the middle ground. We are no longer the imperial power we once were, but we are still a nation of high standing in the order of international affairs. Despite knocks in our reputation over Afghanistan & Iraq, people still listen to and value our opinion. This is why two leading Labour politicians will be in the international limelight during the next two weeks: Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown will have to use Britain’s influence, and the respect the world has for our own leading measures in the fight against climate change, in order to emerge from COP15 with a global agreement.

Let’s hope for the future’s sake, that the dynamic duo, Miliband & Brown, can convince the world to follow our lead, as Gordon Brown himself convinced the G20 to take sweeping action on financial reform and recovery earlier this year.

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