Where is the next majority?

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

Will Straw has a piece in the latest edition of the Fabian Review, published today, which assesses the trends and demographics of Labour’s postwar support base – and looks at where the party should go next to build a winning coalition.

Straw writes:

“There is nothing inevitable in politics, and that includes the result of the next election. But this time, we must not wait for opposition before asking ourselves how we can build a winning coalition. It would be wrong to stick blindly to the middle Britain strategy without, first, an honest appraisal of what worked and what did not.”

Noting the success of the broad support base changes of the 1990s, he asks whether this plauralistic approach broke down once Labour reached office:

“The most damning critique of the Middle Britain strategy is that it created no organisation able to support its aim and instead haemorrhaged support…Building a new movement will not be easy. But the task will be harder still if the party doesn’t think hard about how it has changed since 1992. While the mixed record suggests it would be wrong to continue without questioning the Middle Brtain strategy, it would be equally foolish to hark back to a romantic notion of class consciousness. Chaning demography, geography, values and political reality should all have a bearing on Labour’s next strategy.”

Straw then argues that Labour must consider subtle changes such as the decline of the manual working class and ageing and deurbanising population – trends that he says should ultimately lead to an embrace of proportional representation that would allow for a broader politics.

I largely agree with Will’s argument. Building a winning coaltion from 2010 will require a pluralism that invites in all the progressive organisations to work together – NGOs, campaigning groups and political parties – each fighting for diverse but shared aims. And we do need to look more at the make up of modern Britain if an effective coalition is to be built that will serve the diverse interests of the people.

But for me, one of the defining failures of the Labour government has been its neglect of those it was first established to advance. That means the party needs a shift in prioirties.

An emphasis on new manufacturing through the burgeoning green industries should make up a critical part of our economy in the future. That, in turn, will provide an opportunity for Labour to draw a broader supporting argument of creating a post-recessionary education curriculum fit for Britain in 2010, a more galvanising welfare state, and a new focus on the provision of social and affordable housing.

Each of those policies should seek proudly to advance the agenda of social equality. For me, those core messages should always remain at the heart of Labour politics.