ComRes, Jan 23: Con 38, Lab 29, LD 19

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

In a new ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Mirror, the Tories have dropped four points to 38%. Labour and the Lib Dems remain unchanged, on 29% and 19% respectively.

Translated broadly to a general election, the new numbers would give the Tories 312 seats to Labour’s 257, resulting in a hung parliament – according to the UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator.

In a press release tonight, Andrew Hawkins of ComRes said:

“David Cameron’s attempt to win the votes of Britain’s families is in tatters…Our survey shows the Tories’ lead over Labour has slumped by four points after his flagship policy of tax breaks for married couples collapsed in chaos this week.

Tory leader Mr Cameron will be equally alarmed at the views of the British public on his policies for ordinary families – one of the key battlegrounds ahead of the expected May 6 polling day. Our study found a majority of voters oppose his plan to give a special tax break to married couples.

Only 47% of those quizzed thought the Tory plan to give tax breaks to married couples but not those who co-habit was a “good idea”. A total of 50% said the special tax breaks were a bad idea with a further 3% saying they didn’t know. Critics have condemned the idea because the tax concession will only benefit married couples where one parent works, while the other stays at home to look after their children.

Our survey also uncovered a furious reaction to the view held by many Tories that married couples make better parents than those who do not tie the knot. Only 38%thought married couples were generally better parents, with 60% disagreeing that marriage is vital for strong families.

But voters strongly supported Labour policies to help ordinary families following the latest policies unveiled by the Government last week. Schools and Families Secretary Mr Balls’ pledge to give grandparents greater access to their grandchildren after their parents split up won huge support. An overwhelming 88% back the plan with just 8% against the idea.

There was huge support for Labour’s introduction of tax breaks to parents so they can hire childcare and go back to work if they wish. A massive 81% endorsed the allowances, with just 16% against.

However, our wide-ranging survey found some opposition to the ideas which Gordon Brown hopes will win him the votes of millions of families who hold the key to the election result. Of those asked, 56% did back a Conservative plan to limit popular Child Trust Funds – which give £250 to every newborn child in Britain – to just the poorest families. But 41% said they did not want to see the payments which are made to all newborns at present slashed back under a Tory government.

And voters were split on whether David Cameron’s party had an “outdated” view of British families today. A total of 44% agreed the Tory Party was out of touch. But 45% disagreed – a sign that Mr Cameron has had some success in modernising his party.

Downing Street will also be alarmed by one finding from our survey which shows one of Mr Cameron’s key messages has struck a chord with the public.

In the aftermath of the horrific court case over the torture of two innocent boys in South Yorkshire, Mr Cameron repeated his slogan about “Broken Britain”. Asked if it was fair to describe Britain as a broken society, 59% agreed with the Tory leader’s view – against 39% who disagreed.”

It’s very clear that Labour’s approach on some of these key areas of family policy strike more populist chords with voters than the Conservative proposals.”

David Cameron also has a problem amongst women voters: his lead of 11% among men shrinks to just 5% among women.

In a separate poll for the News of the World, ICM predicted that a uniform swing of 8.5% in marginal seats would deliver a Tory majority of 38.