Poll List: Labour gains 9 points on the Tories; gap down to 7 in second poll

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: A YouGov poll for the Telegraph this weekend also shows similar numbers, with the gap at 7 points.

In a new poll tonight taken by Ipsos-Mori, Labour have increased its share of voting intentions by 6% to 32%, while the Tories have dropped three points to 40%. The Lib Dems are also down, by four points to 16%.

The gap between Labour and the Tories is now at 8 points in this survey.

Translated broadly to a general election, these numbers would result in a hung parliament, with the Tories on 321 seats and Labour on 269 – with the Conservatives falling five seats short of a working majority.

Ipsos-Mori polls have been unpredictable of late. Their recent polls have shown the following results:

December: Con 43, Lab 26, LD 20 – Tories up six on November; Labour down five.

November: Con 37, Lab 31, LD 17 – Tories down six; Labour up five on October.

The November poll was the first to raise seriously the prospect of a hung parliament, but was later discredited by a series of polls showing the Tories back up.

So this new poll should be taken with a pinch of salt, and will only be corroborated with further improvements in other pollsters findings in the coming days and weeks.

But that’s significant, because in another poll tonight, the more reliable YouGov has the gap between Labour and the Tories at seven points, with the Tories on 38%, Labour on 31% and the Lib Dems on 18%.

Political Betting’s Mike Smithson says this second poll – which would also translate to a hung parliament with the Tories 28 seats short of a working majority – is definitely positive for Labour:

“of all the polls that we’ve seen in recent months this is the one that will most worry the Tories. It’s from YouGov and will have a dramatic impact on the narrative and should put some real heart into Labour.“

Expect new speculation about an early election over the weekend. My hopes are that Labour can now begin to compound these gains with further scrutiny of Tory policy as it unravels, and by articulating its own positive vision – and build on that with eyes fixed firmly on May 6th.