The state of play for Labour in Scotland

By Peter Thomson

I wish I could say there is a big revival going on – that Gordon’s clunking fist is re-inspiring the Scots’ Labour vote – but sadly it is not. A straw poll this week among senior members of Kirkcudbright Golf Club – while waiting to go off for our Wednesday Sweep – was for the “none of the above” option.

Now down south people might think: golf club = Tory voter. In Scotland the game has always been far more egalitarian. My partners yesterday were a plumber and a dairyman; most members would rate themselves as “salt o’ the earth” Scots (except for the ex pat folk from Yorkshire and Lancashire), the folk who should be Labour’s core vote.

These Labour folk now laugh at the information coming out of the Labour in Scotland’s main media outlet, The Daily Record, for its constant railing against the SNP, no matter what, while sounding just like a wee boy who claims the big boys have stolen his ball. A recent Record attack led directly to Ian Gray, leader of Labour at Holyrood, having his most embarrassing First Minister Question Times since he took over from Wendy Alexander. The subject matter was irrelevant, the attack was botched as it had ‘leaked’ in a radio interview earlier and Alex Salmond danced round Gray landing punches faster than Mohamed Ali while Gray was left looking like the roped dope. “It was fairly typical of Iain,” said one Labour colleague. “He has a habit of cowering in a corner and hoping that nobody will hit him.”

Behind the comradely facade, Scottish Labour MSP’s are actively briefing against Gray and expect the SNP to increase the number of seats both in May 2010 and May 2011. The gist of their complaint is that Labour at Westminster does not allow Labour in Holyrood to develop Scotland-specific policies, and that Gray is spineless and will not stand up to either Brown or Murphy because Brown “owns” him. This in turn leaves the party in Scotland fighting with at least one hand tied behind their back. Fine, they say, chase the ‘Middle England’ vote but the very policies that appeal to this group are an anathema to Scottish Labour voters.

With the current SNP vote share both Alistair Darling and Jim Murphy (Scottish Secretary) are in danger of loosing their seats; Darling to the SNP and – if the jungle drums are right – Murphy to the Scottish Conservatives. Two of Brown’s loyal MSP’s, Margaret Curran and Cathy Jamieson, have been rewarded with PPCships in two of Labour ‘safe seats’ for the general election, with the intention of their leaving Holyrood in 2011. This looks a bit like the Brown rats are leaving a sinking ship.

The view of the political wonks in Scotland does not make happy reading for the party: “Labour losing the general election could be very divisive for the party. That could last for a very long time – beyond the Scottish elections in 2011 – and that’s not good news for Labour,” says James Mitchell, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. “Gray is clearly no match for Salmond. I think, privately, even his own party would admit that, but at the moment I can’t see who else might succeed him.”

According to Mitchell, however, Labour’s best hope is to adopt a more pro-Scottish approach:

“The danger is the UK battleground will be seen to be between the SNP in Scotland and the Conservatives in London. Where does Labour fit into that? Every unionist party has to get the balance right between Scottishness and Britishness. The Conservatives are starting to get the balance right, Labour are way off.”

The writing looks to be on the wall. But will Brown see it?