Poll List: Tories up; Labour down – but voter turnout likely to be down, shows ComRes

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A new ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday shows Labour down two points on the same poll at the beginning of the month, with the Tories gaining two points.

According to the poll, the Tories are now on 40%, with Labour on 29% and the Lib Dems up two points to 21%.

Worryingly, but perhaps not unexpectedly, the poll suggests that voters are more alienated from politics than they were at this stage before the 2005 election: only 44% said they were “absolutely certain” to vote compared with 56% in February 2005. 18% said that they were “certain not to vote”, compared with 11% five years ago.

There were also some interesting other numbers in the poll:

“Gordon Brown has a warm human side to him”

Agree 50%; Disagree 43%

“David Cameron is a slick salesman but I worry about what he is like underneath”:

Agree 56%; Disagree 36%

“I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close”:

Agree 70%; Disagree 25%

“The voting system in this country needs to be changed”:

Agree 47%: Disagree 48%

Andrew Hawkins, CEO of ComRes, said tonight:

“My overall assessment is that:

(a) This provides evidence that the Conservatives are making little headway outside the South East because David Cameron lacks sufficiently broad appeal.

(b) The broadcast interview with Gordon Brown ought to help shore up Labour support further among women in particular by showing a warmer human side to him.

(c) Alarm bells ought to be sounding over turnout at the forthcoming election. Labour stands to benefit most from encouraging core voters to turn out but the signs are clear that many people intend not to vote at all.

This poll makes it seven out of eight which have shown Conservative support lower among women than men (37% to 42%). Correspondingly Labour support among women is higher than it is among men (32% to 26%). The Conservatives are therefore 16% ahead among men but only 5% ahead among wome.

The figures point to Labour voters threatening to stay away on election day: 24% of DEs [“working class” and those at “lowest levels of susbsistence” according to the NRS social grading system] are ‘certain not to vote’, almost twice the 13% of that group who said the same in February 2005.”