Vote Cameron, get “tougher than Thatcher” Tories – we can’t say we haven’t been warned

The Paul Richards Column

For the third day in a row the YouGov daily opinion poll tracker suggests that the Conservative lead over Labour is six points. Being behind the Tories is a disaster when we should be ahead this close to an election. Six point Tory leads are no reason to celebrate. But the narrowing of the Tory lead gives us cause for cautious optimism. For a party that was flat on its back a few months ago, this is a step in the right direction.

In the past six months, even in the period since Christmas, three forces have been at work on our politics. The first is that there are signs of economic recovery. This is no time for complacency: no green shoots are in view just yet. Most of the country is still hurting. The high streets are still filled with empty shops (mine have works of art from the local gallery in the window, which makes things marginally less grim). The threat to Corus highlights the problems faced by UK manufacturing. The snow has crippled many businesses, making January a truly terrible month.

The last thing voters want to hear is complacent or triumphalist ministers telling them happy days are here again. But the economy’s return to growth, albeit but such a small margin, shows that the worst may be over. Unemployment is falling slowly. Business confidence is returning. In some ways the fragility of the recovery helps Labour’s case. People see a fragile recovery like a delicate flower: the last thing it needs is a Tory chainsaw. George Osborne’s Mais lecture yesterday was light on specifics. It sounded like an A-level paper by someone who had spent too long in the pub instead of revising. It repeated the demand for ‘real cuts’ in the same week that the IMF said savage cuts would endanger Britain’s recovery. Osborne went further this morning, promising to be “tougher than Thatcher” on public spending. We can’t say we haven’t been warned.

This links to the second factor: enhanced scrutiny of the Tories. The best line from Gordon Brown’s speech last weekend at Warwick University was “take a second look at us, and a long hard look at them”. For almost three years Cameron has been the heir apparent. Many in the media have named him Prime Minister before a vote is cast. As the options for the date of a general election narrow to late Spring or early summer, it suddenly becomes very real. People are looking longer and harder at the Tories than they have since 2005.

Cameron remains the Tories greatest asset. Their greatest weakness is the rest of them. Labour’s strategy should be to damn Cameron with faint praise, whilst reminding people that if you vote Cameron, you get the Tories. Vote Cameron, and you get Clarke who you thought you got rid of in 1997, and Hague who you rejected in 2001. In my mind’s eye I see a Labour poster with Cameron’s smiling face. Behind him, making bunny ears and sticking their tongues out are Hague, Lansley, Clarke, Willets and the rest. Vote Cameron. Get the Tories. That’s the slogan. It’s probably a good thing I’m not in advertising, but I am sure the Mad Men types at Saatchi’s could come up with something better along these lines.

The third factor, and bear with me on this, is the Tories’ attempt at character assassination of Gordon Brown, fuelled by the new book by Andrew Rawnsley. No one likes a bully, but after a week of media feeding frenzy there is scant evidence of bullying at Downing Street. That’s not to say it’s a haven of calm and order either. Of course there are terrible outbursts, raised voices and the kind of language you might hear at a football match or even the newsroom of a national newspaper. I don’t believe Andrew Rawnsley is in the business of making things up, or simply rehashing Westminster gossip. John Prescott’s angry ad hominem attacks have been counter-productive. They remind people of Prescott’s own legendary temper, described as “volcanic” by Chris Mullin in his diaries.

Far better has been Peter Mandelson’s approach: to acknowledge that the Prime Minister gets angry, is passionate, is demanding and driven, doesn’t suffer fools gladly, who “lashes out”, and to ask the killer question: so what? People don’t want unassuming weaklings as their Prime Minister. They want someone with a big clunking fist. Opinion polls suggest that the wash-up from ‘bullygate’ is that the PM looks ‘tough’ and ‘passionate’. So the second look at Labour’s leader might make people think again about Gordon Brown. I doubt they’re ever going to love him. Shouty sweary Mr Brown is not very loveable, unless you’re Mrs Brown. But the voters might just respect the Prime Minister enough to give him a mandate.

As Peter Mandelson told another packed fundraising dinner last night at the Arts Club, Mayfair, Labour’s climb is still very steep, but slightly less steep than it was six months ago. The climb is steepest in the marginal seats – the seats New Labour won in 1997 from the Tories and have held ever since. Here the Tories have been working solidly for nearly five years. It’s not just the Ashcroft bonanza. It’s also that they selected their candidates early and put them to work locally, whilst Labour MPs and ministers were in London representing their constituents. Early candidate selection is a lesson Labour needs to learn.

In the last quarter, the Tories raised £10 million – twice as much as Labour - according to the Electoral Commission. It will be ploughed into their efforts to wipe us out in the south east, outer London, in the Midlands, and the rest of the seats in play. David Blunkett’s efforts to raise cash Obama-style, in tens and twenties, should be supported. But we have a great deal of catching up to do. And yet despite all the challenges, there’s a swelling mood of optimism amongst activists. The party’s unofficial slogan for the coming weeks reflects Labour’s growing confidence: ‘game on’.