Why Cameron and Grayling can’t go on like this

By Gabe Trodd

The more you really think about what Chris Grayling is trying to achieve in deceiving the British public about the reality of crime rates in Britain, the more despicable it becomes. Exposed by the BBC, rebuked by the Chairman of the independent UK Statistics Authority for “damaging public trust”, debunked by this week’s Economist in a front page special feature, condemned by local police commanders and denounced by more honourable Conservative colleagues, Grayling has vowed to maintain his crumbling stance on this issue until the general election.

Last Friday, it was left to the Director of Reform, the right-wing think tank, to set the record straight at ConservativeHome with a decent intervention, after Tory activists and bloggers had wearily attempted to defend the indefensible on the site earlier on in the day.

The truth is that this problem is not isolated to crime figures. For example, today only half as many girls between 15 and 19 years old bear a child in their teens than when their grandmothers were that age. Smoking is falling among adults and children and is now at one of the developed world’s lowest rates. And it has just been revealed that the number of divorces in England and Wales has fallen for a fifth successive year to the lowest rate for 29 years. These are just a few of the cold, hard facts that Cameron whimsically airbrushes out of his somewhat hallucinatory narrative on what he calls “Broken Britain”.

There are urgent questions that need to be asked, particularly in light of Grayling’s defamatory press releases, which have been sent out under the radar to every constituency in England and Wales, purporting to show that violent crime had risen sharply under Labour; these press releases have the sickening aim of terrifying decent British people into what would be a mistaken Tory vote.

Firstly, why exactly do the Tories find it so difficult to accept that violent crime has fallen? The issue is that when your reality is constructed around long-term hysteria, prejudice and episodes of The Wire, having to honourably front up to the fact that crime has fallen 41% since 1997 becomes difficult. Everything you thought you knew about the world, and how it works, is shaken up by it. Violent crime is now almost half of what it was in 1995, and is no higher than in 1981, for example. Police figures indicate a 10-year low for murder rates, and the number of people worried about antisocial behaviour has fallen to 15% – the lowest on record.

Secondly, what are the potential dangers of Grayling’s deceit and cowardice? Well, the negative and imbalanced portrayal of disadvantaged British communities and youngsters by the Tories does nothing but whip up insecurity, resentment and division around individual acts of crime, when they do happen. The result is a culture of fear and alienation, which trickles down to vulnerable youngsters, who seek status and protection through arming themselves. All knife-related violence has just fallen by 12% in the latest figures – however the 85% of that small minority of 10-19 year olds who previously reported carrying a knife cited the need for protection as their reason for carrying a knife. The damage done to real British youngsters and real British communities by Grayling’s misleading campaign could be potentially devastating.

Finally, what can Westminster and the media do in response to all of this? For a start, Grayling and Cameron could front up to the truth, stop pushing their fiddled statistics and apologise to the British public, as well as the hardworking British police forces, who are much more often than not doing a great job. In the longer-term, Cameron could stop talking Britain down and have the bravery to produce some firm, detailed, substantive policies, if he sees issues he wants to address. However, I suspect that, in the striking absence of any substance, on issues around crime, law and order from the Tories, it will be left to Labour to tackle the Tories’ duplicity head-on, at every turn.

Labour needs to keep on getting the message out, nationally and locally, because people are really listening to us about this, and in the end, there is nothing more powerful than the truth.

Related posts:

1. Chris Grayling: opportunism, scaremongering, political positioning and youth crime gimmicks at Comment is Free
2. Chris Grayling: telly addict
3. Does this look like your street corner, Mr Grayling?
4. Stats watchdog rebukes Grayling for dodgy crime figures
5. Chris Grayling: true to form