Poll List: Tory lead at 7 and lowest in ICM poll for two years

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: The YouGov tracker tonight shows: Con 38%, Lab 33%, LD 17%.

A new ICM poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph shows the Tory lead down two points to 38% since last Sunday, with Labour unchanged on 31% and the Lib Dems up one point to 21%.

Translated on a uniform swing, the new results would deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories on 292 seats – 34 seats short of a working majority – and Labour on 273, according to the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator.

It’s the smallest gap shown by ICM between the leading two parties in two years, which has been 20 points at its height. The Telegraph says:

“Mr Cameron is still trusted by voters more than Gordon Brown on three key issues – the economy, education and the NHS – but again his lead has narrowed. The poll findings follow two jittery months in which the Tories have struggled to set the agenda and have been hit by a series of setbacks, including revelations this month over the “non dom” tax status of Lord Ashcroft, the deputy chairman of the party.”

“The ICM poll shows Mr Cameron is more trusted than Mr Brown to deliver on the NHS (by two per cent), schools (by seven per cent) and the economy (by three per cent). However, in January his leads were eight per cent, 12 per cent, and seven per cent respectively.”

Interestingly, 34% of respondents now think Britain’s interests would be best served by a hung parliament. 56% want one party to win a clear majority.

The poll was based on a sample of 1,007 adults on MArch 10th and 11th.