Poll List: Tory lead widens to 9 points in new ICM poll

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A new ICM poll for tomorrow’s Guardian will show the Tories increasing their lead by a net two points over Labour – just two days after a recent survey by the same pollster showed the Tory lead at its lowest for two years.

The new results shows the volatility of current polls, with the Tories up three points and back at 40%, Labour also up one point, to 31%, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 20%.

Translated on a uniform swing, the poll would still deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories 12 seats short of a working majority on 314 seats, and Labour on 259 seats, according to the UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator.

The Guardian reports:

“Voters remain unconvinced by the Conservative alternative, with 29% thinking a clear Tory victory would be best. Only 18% think Britain would be best served by a strong Labour win this spring. Both groups are outnumbered by the 44% who want a hung parliament in which the government works with smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats.”

Worryingly, amongst 2005 Labour voters, only 38% wanted to see the party win a strong majority in 2010, while 43% would prefer a hung parliament.

In addition, Gordon Brown is behind David Cameron in every individual question, with Cameron ahead by 15% as the person people want to win, and 14% ahead on which party leader would make the most competent prime minister.

The polls was conducted on a sample of 1,002 adults by telephone between Friday and Sunday night, predominantly before David Cameron’s interview on ITV last night.