Quel naïf, ce futur chancelier

By Ellie Gellard / @BevaniteEllie

There’s a wonderful piece in Le Monde, brought to my attention by Paul Waugh, who links to a hideous Google translation. I thought I could do a bit better so sat down ready to give it a go when all of a sudden a pretty perfect translation pops up in my inbox courtesy of @paulstpancras. I have lightly edited it.

Voila…

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It’s impossible. He might have been Finance Minister in Cameron’s shadow cabinet for the past five years but George Osborne doesn’t convince anybody that he’s up to the job of Chancellor. His lack of experience and his boyish looks stick to this 38 year old aristocrat.

The closer the British elections get – they must be held by June 3rd – this number two of a future Conservative government looks like the weakest link in the Cameron team. The economy is the biggest issue for British voters, according to the polls, the heart of the battle between Cameron and Brown.

Osborne’s economic orthodoxy is so dogmatic that it worries people. It doesn’t matter that the British economy is still in the doldrums. Or that growth is so fragile. Nor is it important that the IMF has endorsed Brown’s strategy saying we must not threaten recovery by swingeing cuts or big tax increases. Brown’s approach is the right one.

One must, insists Osborne, reduce the deficit (12.6% of GDP for 2009-10) quickly in order to save future generations from debt.

On the other side, Cameron has had difficulty in adapting his economic programme to changed circumstances.

“We can’t go on like this. I will reduce the debt not the NHS” is one of his campaign slogans, without explaining how he will clear the debt while carrying out his programme.

He seems stuck between a rock and a hard place in the short term. Attacking the exponential debt (80% of GDP by 2014) is Osborne’s priority. At the same time, not going down the Thatcher route which brought British public services to its knees.

While waiting to clarify his position, the Conservative leader is convinced he knows where he is going and that his economic team is up to the tasks ahead. He never misses a chance to say how good his future chancellor is, the man who accompanied his rise to power in 2005 and who helped to create “compassionate conservatism”.

At the same time, he asked Ken Clarke, his Business and Trade Minister, to play a larger role in his team. This former Chancellor of the Exchequer, who under John Major held the purse strings from 1993-97 as the British emerged from the last recession, can’t be accused of lack of experience. Clarke’s presence at his side, he hopes, will reassure voters. For the City, it is a serious gamble.

In City circles, quite used to budget cuts, they can’t quite take Osborne seriously. Cameron’s indecision doesn’t help. Despite coming from a business family, Osborne doesn’t understand business, unlike his predecessors Lawson, Major, Lamont (banking) or Howe (law). It is thought in the event of a victory, the new Chancellor will carry no weight in the Treasury – weakened by the departure of several senior figures.

Little mistakes

Then there are Osborne’s evasive answers, his lack of analysis and his overtly political approach. This “lightweight intellectual” – who lacks both courtesy and punctuality – added to his small, and not so small, mistakes which pepper his speeches. Thus, in Oct 2009, he underestimated his savings by £3 billion by getting the legal age of retirement wrong. He likes to say that this latest Labour government is the first to lower the GDP. He is wrong – it was between 1979-83, as the FT pointed out.

According to his critics, Osborne who studied History at Oxford, is also guilty of misunderstanding the financial mechanics of the City.

His support for a Bonus Tax and Obama’s separation of retail and investment banking has come unstuck. His euro-scepticism is troubling given rivalry between the City and EU institutions is stretched to breaking point on hedge funds and insurrance. When Osborne proposes to return FSA powers to the Bank of England – ill equipped to take on such a role – the chorus groans louder in the background “What a naive future Chancellor of the Exchequer.”