The Tory decline offers Labour the opportunity for renewal

By James Maker

For Labour supporters, Tuesday’s Populus poll in The Times made pleasurable reading. The poll indicates that Labour is still just ahead, on 38.2%, down from 45.3% in the 2005 election with the Tories on 37.6%, up from 31.4%. The switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is in the region of 1.5 to 2 points higher in the marginal seats than nationally. Replicated at the general election this might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, only taking them to the threshold of the 326 seats they need to scarp an overall majority in the Commons.

These Populus results alongside the decline in the performance of the Conservatives in various national polls in recent weeks reveal the disentanglement of their ‘modernisation project’ as we come ever closer to an election. On economic policy the Tory party is wobbling. On the one hand the message is austerity to reduce the ‘biggest threat’ to our economy, the deficit. On the other hand, its no savage cuts during the first year of office, only efficiency savings. Such a condescending message has a clear motivation. Revising the austerity message was only pursued once Cameron’s focus groups started to become uneasy at the thought of axe wielding Tories chopping away at vital public services.

Recently on LabourList, Jonathon Rutherford highlighted that three years ago Cameron claimed Thatcher’s neo-liberal economic revolution as his own when he stated that, due to the enterprise economy she engineered, “our country does not face economic breakdown… we’ve won the economic argument.” At its core, Tory economic policy has no solid commitments expect to play homage to the economic settlement bequeathed by the New Right; to get the budget deficit down and appease the financial markets, whilst floating business tax cuts to draw support from the CBI. As New Labour’s own ‘what works’ derivative for the financial sector showed when the financial crisis exploded in mid-2008, such a philosophy encouraged financial greed and immorality, leaving Britain wide open to the socio-economic damage unrestrained free-markets can create. Moreover, their proposed tax cuts for multinationals will shift the burden of deficit reduction to individuals and communities through VAT rises and public service asceticism. Inconsistent and regressive, the Conservative economic plans contain no long-term strategy for the much needed rebalancing of our economy.

Despite the rhetoric of ‘vote for change’ and their marketing of themselves as the party of the protest vote (for example the ‘I’ve never voted Conservative‘ posters), the Populus and other polls also show thatthis message is making little headway. Voters remain unclear about the Tory message of ‘change’. In the marginals, 41% of all voters believe that it is “time for a change” but only 34% see the Tories as the party to achieve this, with 19% saying that it does not seem like “time for a change” from Labour.

The ability of Cameron to present the Conservatives as the party of change has been his supposed shifting of party policy to the ‘centre ground’ and modernising its ‘nasty’ image. Occupying Blair’s much heralded centre ground has meant that ‘Compassionate Conservatism’ has had to acknowledge the realities of modern Britain. They tread on traditional Labour turf by condemning the prevalence of poverty and inequality in our society. They attempt to broaden their electoral appeal by demanding political transparency, speaking openly of their regret for section 28 and promoting ethnic minorities and women as parliamentary candidates. Traditional hallmarks of the Conservative creed such as immigration and tax cuts have been pushed to the sidelines for fear of driving a wrecking ball though the ‘project’.

But look a bit closer, as voters evidently are, and the modern Conservative façade begins to crumble. In the marginals the revelations over Lord Ashcroft are weakening their claims for greater transparency in politics, and the assertions that they no longer represent the interest of the financially privileged. The Populus poll revealed that some 28% of the 68% who stated they had followed the Ashcroft story quite closely or even vaguely said that it had made their overall view of the party less favourable.

In the past week, scare tactics have been deployed on immigration with allegations of Conservative and BNP councilors colluding in Thurrock, and Conservative MP Andrew Rosindell lending, and then denying, the support he gave to the dog-whistle tactics of his local Conservative Party. Such right-wing antics shouldn’t be dismissed as isolated incidents. On Saturday The Guardian reported on the growing influence of the Young Britons’ Foundation, a radical organisation within the Conservative Party. John Prescott’s remark that this “shows the conflict between the smiling, liberal face of Cameron and the real gut feeling” that some Tories contain is quite pertinent. Even Ed Vaizey, part of Cameron’s inner circle, told Vanity Fair “He [Cameron] is much more conservative by nature than he acts, or than he is forced to be by political exigency”.

As the Conservative modernisation begins to split at the seams, Labour must continue to unearth the underbelly of modern Conservatism. Furthermore, by putting forward a radical and visionary manifesto, they can lay claim to being the progressive party of change. Winning back the millions of disillusioned Labour supporters, and those toying with the idea of Compassionate Conservatism, requires Labour’s pitch to the country to contain ideas such as turning the minimum wage into a living wage, a firm commitment to maintaining the 50% tax rate, radical reform of the financial sector, rebalancing our economy by supporting the growth of new green industries, removing penal tax withdrawal rates on benefits and tax credits, and abandoning the renewal of trident.

Harking back to the achievements of the past 13 years won’t be enough to secure a forth term. Only by admitting the mistakes of the past and offering credible remedies to these failures will see off Cameron; and in the process reignite the ascendency of the publically hidden hard-right of his party.

This post was also published at Compass.

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