Poll List: Half those who will tune in say debates could influence their vote

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A new ComRes poll of 1,001 people on Monday and Tuesday for ITV News/The Independent shows the Tories down one point from yesterday to 35%, Labour down two points on 29% and the Lib Dems up two points on 21%.

Translated to the election on a uniform swing, those numbers would deliver a hung parliament, with Labour and the Conservatives on 280 seats each, according to the UK Polling Report.

ComRes also asked voters if they would be watching tomorrow’s debate, and whether it could influence the way they vote. 31% said they wouldn’t watch any of the debates, 32% said they would watch but the debates wouldn’t influence their vote, and 33% said they will watch the debates and are open to them influencing how they vote.

That half of all those who will watch the debates are still open to persuasion will add pressure on the leaders to perform well. This morning, I wrote about why I think the media and the bookies are expecting a Cameron win.

Again showing the unpredictability of the current polls, in the YouGov tracking poll tonight the Tories are up two points to 41%, Labour are up one point to 32% and the Lib Dems are down two points to 18%. That 9% lead would also deliver a hung parliament on a uniform swing, but with the Tories over 40% for the first time in a while, they would be just 5 seats short of securing a working majority.