You are here: Home » Archives »

Election reflections

May 7, 2010 6:09 pm

Author:

Brian Barder

Share this Article

I don’t think that the Lib Dems have any serious alternative to signing up to Cameron’s not particularly generous offer and getting the best deal they can in terms of policy concessions. But they have a weak hand: they couldn’t justify climbing into bed with Gordon after Labour has won under 30% of the vote, nearly as awful as 1983, and lost 91 seats. The astonishing thing is that the Tories won only 36.1% of the vote when they started with so many huge advantages: and they can’t explain that away by reference to the ‘unfair’ distribution of voter numbers among constituencies.

I had consistently and wrongly predicted an overall Tory majority, which seemed inevitable after 13 years of Labour, with a deeply unpopular Labour leader, the MPs’ expenses scandal, two unpopular wars, all flights grounded for days on end, and above all the deepest recession for a generation, all inevitably blamed on the Labour government, however unfairly in some cases. I’m still at a loss to know why Cameron failed to get his overall majority when circumstances were so uniformly favourable for the Tories. The Lib Dem share of the vote (a mere 23%, with only one more result due today) is less than 1 point better than they won in 2005, before Nick Clegg had been invented.

So I see no reason to change my revised forecast of this morning: Cameron leading a minority Conservative government with the provisional acquiescence of the Lib Dems following loose agreement on a number of policy promises. The mechanics of achieving this won’t be at all straightforward if Gordon Brown insists on exercising his right to meet parliament as prime minister seeking a confidence vote on May 25th on a Queen’s Speech full of seductive goodies for the Lib Dems and for the other left-of-centre parties. I suspect, however, that he will be prevented from dragging things out in this way by an appeal to his patriotism: the country can’t afford to prolong the uncertainty and to delay urgent decisions on the economy for another 18 days. Brown will also be under pressure from younger Labour ministers not to discredit the party in this way for fear of yet more punishment by the electorate in the next election, which could well take place within the year.

Comments are closed

Latest

Comment
The culture of high risk credit is being exploited by betting shops

By Matthew Zarb-Cousin

Since the financial crisis, the perfect storm of recession and banks restricting access to credit has led to the rise of payday lenders. Our high streets are slowly deteriorating from the vibrant, diverse places they once were into an abyss of pawnbrokers, payday loan shops and bookies. The three feed off of each other, targeting some of our most deprived areas and perpetuating a cycle of despair driven by the need for extra income. Research carried out by Geofutures found [...]
Read more →
Comment
Should people be asked if they are party supporters when they register to vote?

Chris Clark and Rav Seeruthun on a small change that if adopted, would free activists to spend more time on community work Every year at party conferences we hear professional politicians eulogise hard-working party volunteers. And there’s no activity more often evoked than that of ‘knocking on doors’. It’s a common delusion that the purpose of doorstep canvassing is to ‘persuade’ voters. Having taken part in our fair share of Labour canvassing sessions, we’ve both had the dispiriting experience of [...]
Read more →
Europe Featured
You can always rely on the Conservatives to ignore the public when it comes to Europe

By Douglas Alexander

Europe is not often the issue which comes top of people’s concerns on the doorstep. Nor do opinion polls suggest that Europe is a priority for voters when compared to issues like the economy or jobs. But you can always rely on the Conservatives to ignore the public when it comes to Europe. This week saw over a hundred Conservative MPs rebel and vote against their own Queens Speech. They were angry that it hadn’t included a bill which would [...]
Read more →
News Seats and Selections
Vicky Foxcroft selected as Labour’s PPC for Lewisham Deptford

Vicky Foxcroft has been selected by Lewisham Deptford CLP as the party’s candidate for 2015 at a selection meeting this afternoon. Here’s a brief biography: Vicky grew up in the North West in a single parent household, and was the first person in her family to go to university. She has held many positions in the party including Chair of Labour Students, has sat on the National Policy Forum and is currently a local councillor and is Chair of Lewisham [...]
Read more →
Comment
Labour’s future schools policy: why accountability matters

By Mike Ion

Stephen Twigg, Labour’s Shadow Education Secretary is one of the more thoughtful and pragmatic individuals to hold this vitally important brief for some time. To his credit Stephen has been out and about these past two years listening to pupils, teachers, parents and governors and finding out more about the challenges they face on a day-to-day basis. In addition Stephen has been looking closely at some local, regional, national and international programmes that have had a demonstrable impact in raising [...]
Read more →