The Lib Dems will have an Okey-Cokey strategy – Labour must have a plan to counter it

Avatar

Clegg Cameron The Paul Richards column

People expect their pundits to have the gift of clairvoyance. Prescience is an important attribute in commentators, because it suggests that they can detect trends which other actors on the political stage – mere MPs for example – cannot. Martin Kettle is obviously chuffed that he identified the date of this year’s general election on 12th March 2008, the first pundit, or so he claims, to do so. I am particularly pleased with this, from my weekly Progress column, on 12th February this year:

“Then there’s the prospect of a coalition government. But coalition with whom? Labour historically has been propped up by the Liberals, but a lot has changed since the last bout of Lib-Labbery in the late 1970s. Clegg would rather be the social conscience of a new Conservative government than the prop holding up a Labour government which people feel has been rejected at the ballot box…In my view a Lib-Lab pact is less likely than a Lib-Con pact.”

If you write 2,000 words a week, on the law of averages some of it will turn out to be accurate.

For a few weeks now I’ve been banging on about how the Liberal Democrats will position themselves as a junior partner in the Tory-led government. I’ve argued that, although we can have lots of fun hanging the rise in tuition fees, cuts to old people’s homes, and other social services, round the necks of Lib Dems, they are not stupid.

The Cowley Street strategists understand full well the perils of Clegg, Cable, Alexander, and the rest joining a Tory Government. They know that Labour will seek to carve out the entire territory to the centre and left of the small state conservatives, and their yellow allies. They know that in the key seats, where Liberal Democrat MPs beat Labour candidates by the slimmest of margins, the charge of collaboration with the Tories could cost them dear. They know that in every council election, Labour will be able to print leaflets of Cameron and Clegg outside Downing Street, and say Vote Lib Dem, Get the Tories. If spoof ‘Lib Dems Cutting Here’ diamond posters are not currently in production, they should be.

Cowley St knows that the moment of greatest opportunity – to serve in government for the first time since the 1920s – is also the moment of greatest peril: to be subsumed by the larger party to their right, like a pike devouring a minnow.

What will the Lib Dems do? Unfortunately for Labour, they won’t fall into the trap. To understand their tactics, you have to understand their party. They don’t operate as a single entity; they are devolved and federal. Because they are liberals, they tolerate dissent to a far greater degree than the Tories or Labour. The spectrum of ideology is huge, probably wider than Labour’s. They include traditional, laissez-faire Liberals, now coalesced around the Orange Book faction (Clegg, Laws, Davey, Huhne). There are single issue campaigners and conspiracy theorists such as Norman Baker, who thinks Dr Kelly was murdered. You’ve left-wingers such as Vince Cable, who is a social-democrat by instinct and background. You’ve Simon Hughes, who wants to be the radical conscience of the party. From people who want higher taxes and a bigger state on their left, to free market liberals on their right, the Lib Dems are not just a broad church, but a gathering of different religions. You’ve also got all kinds of people, especially councillors, with hardly any political philosophy at all, just a yellow rosette somebody pinned on them when they begged them to stand for office.

The Liberal Democrats’ over-arching tactic is pragmatism, flexibility, and shameless inconsistency. We’ve been saying for years that they say one thing in one area, and something different somewhere else. The problem with that is that we judge them by our own standards, as a single unified party that agrees a line and expects everyone to stick to it. The Lib Dems, by contrast, are a franchise operation, like Costa Coffee. The branding is the same everywhere, but their approach to issues is dependent on what will win votes.

Therefore, my prediction is that the Liberal Democrats will allow an internal split to take place, which gives dissidents carte blanche to oppose the government. It will be sanctioned, indeed encouraged, from on high, and it will allow Lib Dem councillors and candidates for parliament to say that the cuts are nothing to do with me, gov. You’ve already seen Ming Campbell announce that he will vote against rises in tuition fees. Other Lib Dems will have trouble with Gove’s Academies Bill. Lib Dem-run councils will oppose it locally, whilst their colleagues in parliament are whipped to vote it through.

Simon Hughes is positioning himself as leader of the Continuity Lib Dems. The new deputy wanted to appoint Lib Dem spokespeople to ‘shadow’ every department: in effect to be both government and opposition simultaneously (and keep claiming the Short money too, no doubt). Clegg has vetoed that move, but according to Allegra Stratton in the Guardian, will probably accept shadow departmental committees, with Lib Dems scrutinising their own ministers.

This is the first of several moves which will create a space for Lib Dems to oppose the government, whilst continuing to be part of it. It will mean local parliamentary candidates will be able to parade their opposition to cuts imposed by their Lib Dem colleagues in parliament, without fear of expulsion or rebuke. Sure, I’m a Lib Dem, they will say, but not one of those nasty Lib Dems who cut all your local services. It’s the Okey-Cokey strategy: one foot in, one foot out. Labour will need an equally crafty strategy to counter it, something I am sure our next leader is working on.

More from LabourList

DONATE HERE

We provide our content free, but providing daily Labour news, comment and analysis costs money. Small monthly donations from readers like you keep us going. To those already donating: thank you.

If you can afford it, can you join our supporters giving £10 a month?

And if you’re not already reading the best daily round-up of Labour news, analysis and comment…

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR DAILY EMAIL