A beginner’s guide to the Scottish Elections

By Kezia Dugdale / @kezdugdale

To fully understand Labour’s chances of regaining power at next year’s Scottish Parliament elections, you need to appreciate the impact of three things:

1) Boundary changes
2) The Additional Member System and
3) The growing unpopularity of Alex Salmond

Alex Salmond was once the SNP’s greatest asset, now he is an electoral liability. Pinning down the exact point when the tide changed is difficult. Was it the dodgy dealings with big business? The demise of the ‘Arc of Prosperity’? The countless broken promises? Or the release of Megrahi? Make no mistake, Kenny MacAskill’s decision to release Abdul Basset ali Al-Megrahi is a hugely controversial and emotive issue in Scotland. At the time of his release around 12 months ago, on compassionate grounds – nothing to do with Prisoner Transfer Agreements and BP, opinion was divided and it transcended party lines.

I met countless SNP voters in the run up to the general election campaign in the Craigmillar area of Edinburgh who vowed never to vote SNP again because of what Kenny MacAskill had done. These patriotic Scot’s blood boiled at the pictures of Saltires swaying in the gentle breeze of Tripoli airport.

Yet, I also met Labour voters who were deeply ill at ease at the lack of compassion in our party’s stance. This man was terminally ill with cancer they’d say, no matter his sins, it was not right for him to die in jail.

Nearly 12 months on, Mr Megrahi is still with us having outlived his life expectancy 4 times over. Those in favour of his release shuffle uncomfortably in their seats whilst the anger of those opposed is increasingly palpable.

However, will the fate of Mr Megrahi have a material impact on next year’s Scottish Elections? I think not… There are too many issues closer to home impacting on voters not least the security of their jobs and the future of their public services.

Scottish voters are a canny lot. Next year’s election will be the 4th since devolution was delivered by Labour. They are now accustomed to voting in a sophisticated manner. It’s extremely common to hear voters say “I vote Labour at Westminster but SNP for Holyrood” and such a view plays havoc with the veracity of our Voter ID systems. It is this factor which is critical for understanding that Scotland’s outstanding general election results do not automatically translate into regaining power at Holyrood.

In order for Labour to win at next year’s Holyrood elections it must do two things; firstly, regain the trust of voters in the constituency seats we lost time around, and secondly, give Labour voters a reason to vote Labour on the regional list too. I’ll take each of those in turn. Glasgow Govan, Edinburgh East, Stirling, Kilmarnock, Dundee West are just 5 of the seats that Labour lost to the SNP last time around which we must regain if we are to have any chance of regaining power.

The two most interesting seats are Glasgow Govan and Edinburgh East, not least because they are held by two sitting SNP Ministers, Nicola Sturgeon and the controversial Kenny MacAskill. Both equivalent seats at Westminster faced a heavy charge from the SNP at the recent General Election, a charge easily rebuffed by the new Labour MPs Anas Sarwar and Sheila Gilmore. Both seats are now subject to major boundary reviews, which plays to Labour’s advantage. But Kenny MacAskill, and Nicola Sturgeon in particular, are extremely powerful figures in the Scottish National Party, and their party machinery will demand that no expense is spared in an attempt to hold the symbolism of their constituency victories.

Because of course first-past-the-post constituency races are just one half of the Scottish Election game. 73 MSPs are elected by FPTP and 56 seats are elected by regional lists; each of the 8 regions returning 7 list MSPs.

This additional members system introduces a degree of proportionality by using the complicated D’Hondt method to distribute list seats to political parties after all constituency results within a region have been declared. Political parties produce their own “list” of candidates ranked in order of preference.

Kenny MacAskill and Nicola Sturgeon will both undoubtedly ‘top’ their respective regional lists. Therefore it is almost impossible to unseat them – for as long as the SNP rank them at the top of their lists, these two stalwarts of the SNP Hierarchy will have seats in our parliament. That in my view is undemocratic, a view shared by the Welsh Labour Party which led them to outlaw such practices, but that’s an argument for another day.

Despite the advantage that the boundary changes offer Labour in Edinburgh East and Glasgow, theyare by no means all positive.

Significant changes to boundaries in Edinburgh Central, Aberdeen Central and Eastwood and Dumfries give cause for serious headaches amongst sitting Labour MSPs.

Labour will need to defend these seats first and foremost before it chases the SNP trophys on offer.

Labour will also have to attract regional list votes to ensure it tops up its total number of MSPs in areas where constituency gains are unlikely.

Labour has never really had an effective list strategy and as a consequence of that Labour voters are accustomed to playing with their second vote, perhaps giving it to the Liberal Democrats, the Greens or the boundless Margo MacDonald.

These voters will need to be gently told that if they want a Labour government they will have to vote Labour and only Labour.

There is no escaping the fact that next year’s Holyrood election is a numbers game. A psephologists delight. But the momentum is undoubtedly with Labour.