Equalising constituencies must mean the end to double registration

By Paul Smith

“There will be a consistent approach towards the equalisation of constituencies throughout the nation” Nick Clegg June 7th 2010

I hope that a blog about the mathematics of the forthcoming parliamentary boundary review will not lead to too many readers dozing off. However an important fact has been largely ignored in the discussion of creating constituencies which are broadly equal in numbers. Nick Clegg has talked about equalisation and the value of votes; in the same debate he made the reasonable point:

“That is simply not right. It is the ultimate postcode lottery, whereby the weight of one’s vote depends on where one lives”

However what is forgotten is that some people are counted more than once in determining the total size of the electorate and its size in certain constituencies. A surprisingly large number of voters are registered in more than one constituency, skewing the electoral calculations, in some areas significantly.

Given the numbers involved I estimate this to be equivalent to 15 – 20 constituencies on the coalition stated target of 75,000 population per seat. Not only is this figure quite staggering in absolute terms, if one considers the impact of this number of constituencies on the outcome of an election in a parliament with 600 seats it becomes clearly untenable that some people should be counted twice in calculating constituency size and distribution.

Also there are currently no checks on whether people break the law and vote twice in general elections, with universal access to postal voting this is possible. Surely if we want a fair voting system how can we continue to allow people to be allowed onto the electoral register for two or more constituencies? It is possible to allow people to be registered for local elections without a general election vote as is the case with European citizens. Giving over one million voters the real opportunity to vote twice is unfair and undemocratic.

Second Homes

The number of second homes in England is estimated at 241,000 (source: CLG 2007) in Scotland there were 30,000 at the time of the last census and in Wales estimates around 25,000 Second (and more) home owners are able to register in every local authority in which they live. It is not unreasonable to estimate that this adds around 500,000 voters to the electoral register or around 6-7 (75,000) constituencies. These voters are by definition wealthier residents and the second homes are concentrated almost entirely in Conservative constituencies, with a smattering of Lib Dems. The areas with the highest proportions of second homes are Cornwall, Dorset, North & South Devon, Isle of Wight, West Sussex coast, Central London (the rich bits), East Anglia coast, North Yorkshire Coast and Cumbria. These concentrations help fuel the statistics which suggest Conservative MPs represent larger electorates than Labour MPs.

Students

There are over two million students in higher education in Britain, 60% of these are in full time study and are likely to be living away from home. I think a fair estimate of those living away from home would be around 1.2 million (although I’m happy for someone to post exact numbers) of which around one million will be registered to vote in two constituencies (around thirteeen 75,000 constituencies). Students in higher education are still more likely to be from middle class backgrounds with a huge over representation from non-state schools. This factor therefore also will suggest that Conservative and Liberal Democrat constituencies are over-counted due to this double registration.

Any change in electoral rules and review of boundaries must also end the right of people (mainly wealthy people) to be registered in more than one parliamentary constituency i.e. they must be forced to choose where they register.

This would also remove from the calculations of constituency size around 1.5 million double voters or 3% of the national electoral register.

Fair votes must surely mean only one vote for each citizen.