Latest LabourList leadership survey: The results

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Ed Miliband is now the prefered choice to be Labour leader amonst LabourList readers, according to our new poll, conducted between Monday afternoon and noon today.

Ed moves ahead of his brother for the first time in this series of surveys, taking the majority of the first preferences with 33.4% of the vote. Brother David is in second place with 30.2%, his lead having been shortened in our last survey, and overhauled in this penultimate one.

Ed also maintains a healthy lead amongst trade union supporters on first preferences (35.3% – a lead of 7.4%), although this is of course a smaller sample than the wider survey, and will naturally include a great deal of overlap.

Diane Abbott remains in third place in our full survey on 14.7%, but when non-members are excluded she slips back into fourth place behind Andy Burnham. Diane appears to be the most “marmite” of the candidates on offer, with nearly 50% of voters placing her as their fifth choice candidate, despite her being in third place on overall first preferences.

Burnham certainly seems to have the most support amongst members who aren’t supporting one of the Milibands. He picks up alot of second and third preferences (23.9% and 27.9%) – and there’s maybe a chance he could still have a role to play in the final reckoning if he can stay alive through the first two rounds of voting.

There’s little good news for Ed Balls in the headline figures, as he languishes in 5th place in both our overall survey (9.1%), and amongst members (8.7%). However this is a near doubling of his support since our last poll, and he’s clearly making up ground – with more 2nd/3rd preferences than last time out, it just seems that he’s struggling to break through into being people’s first choice.

Of course there are real caveats that must be applied to any reading of this survey. This isn’t an opinion poll, the results aren’t scientific (or reflective of the entire voting pool) and of course by their very nature these surveys are self-selecting. However, what this does provide us with is a snapshot of how our readers are feeling about the candidates over a set time period, and some of the trends (Ed Miliband gaining support, Ed Balls winning people over, Diane Abbott failing to keep up her early momentum) appear on the surface to have some merit.

That is not to say that Ed Miliband will beat his brother amongst party members. That’s by no means what these numbers suggest. What they do suggest is that this week, Ed Miliband is the LabourList reader’s frontrunner – and that’s not a position he’s been in before.

The full results of last week’s poll, which was taken by 912 people, are as follows:

* ALL RESPONDENTS”

FIRST PREFERENCES:
Ed Miliband (33.4%)
David Miliband (30.2%)
Diane Abbott (14.7%)
Andy Burnham (12.5%)
Ed Balls (9.1%)

SECOND PREFERENCES:
Ed Miliband (24.4%)
Andy Burnham (23.9%)
David Miliband (22.6%)
Ed Balls (18.8%)
Diane Abbott (10.4%)

THIRD PREFERENCES:
Andy Burnham (27.9%)
Ed Balls (26.1%)
Ed Miliband (19.6%)
David Miliband (16.0%)
Diane Abbott (10.5%)

FOURTH PREFERENCES:
Ed Balls (28.9%)
Andy Burnham (23.3%)
Diane Abbott (16.6%)
David Miliband (15.8%)
Ed Miliband (15.3%)

FIFTH PREFERENCES:
Diane Abbott (46.4%)
Ed Balls (18.8%)
David Miliband (17.5%)
Andy Burnham (11.2%)
Ed Miliband (6.2%)

The spread of preferences was broadly similar amongst respondents who identified themselves as members of the Labour Party (83% of the total number of respondents). Notable differences are the increased support for Ed Miliband, and that Andy Burnham is pipping Diane Abbott into third place for the third time.

* PEOPLE ANSWERING “YES” TO “ARE YOU A MEMBER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?”

FIRST PREFERENCES:
Ed Miliband (35.7%)
David Miliband (30.3%)
Andy Burnham (12.8%)
Diane Abbott (12.5%)
Ed Balls (8.7%)

SECOND PREFERENCES:
Andy Burnham (24.7%)
David Miliband (24.0%)
Ed Miliband (22.3%)
Ed Balls (19.2%)
Diane Abbott (9.9%)

THIRD PREFERENCES:
Andy Burnham (27.3%)
Ed Balls (26.3%)
Ed Miliband (19.2%)
Ed Balls (16.6%)
Diane Abbott (10.6%)

FOURTH PREFERENCES:
Ed Balls (29.3%)
Andy Burnham (23.6%)
Diane Abbott (17%)
Ed Miliband (15.1%)
David Miliband (15%)

FIFTH PREFERENCES:
Diane Abbott (48%)
Ed Balls (17.6%)
David Miliband (17.2%)
Andy Burnham (10.5%)
Ed Miliband (6.7%)

Amongst people who identified as members of a trade union, Ed Miliband holds a commanding lead in first preferences, but the message isn’t as clear when we get into 2nd/3rd preferences:

* PEOPLE ANSWERING “YES” TO “ARE YOU A MEMBER OF A TRADE UNION?”

FIRST PREFERENCES:
Ed Miliband (35.3%)
David Miliband (27.9%)
Diane Abbott (14.9%)
Andy Burnham (12%)
Ed Balls (9.9%)

SECOND PREFERENCES:
Ed Miliband (23.9%)
David Miliband (23.7%)
Andy Burnham (22.4%)
Ed Balls (19.6%)
Diane Abbott (10.4%)

THIRD PREFERENCES:
Andy Burnham (28.8%)
Ed Balls (26.5%)
Ed Miliband (19.3%)
David Miliband (14.2%)
Diane Abbott (11.2%)

FOURTH PREFERENCES:
Ed Balls (25.8%)
Andy Burnham (24.2%)
Diane Abbott (19.1%)
David Miliband (18.2%)
Ed Miliband (12.7%)

FIFTH PREFERENCES:
Diane Abbott (42.8%)
David Miliband (20%)
Ed Balls (17.8%)
Andy Burnham (11.7%)
Ed Miliband (7.7%)

Later in the week, I will look at how people who voted for each candidate used their second, third, fourth and fifth preferences in percentage terms. The leadership contest looks certain to hinge on the spread of those transferred votes.

The survey was conducted between 1.30pm on Monday 9th August and noon on Friday 13th August. 912 LabourList readers participated and repeat IP addresses were revoved.