The race in review: David Miliband

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David Miliband campaignBy Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

David Miliband was the first declared candidate in this campaign, and he has been the favourite ever since. Unless something dramatic happens he’ll head up to Manchester in late September as the likely next leader of the Labour Party (and we hope, the next Prime Minister). For David Miliband, this campaign has been about dominance, about getting ahead and staying ahead, and about avoiding the unforced errors that can defeat early frontrunners.

It has been suggested that David Miliband should have dominated this contest more than he has. He has an enviable war chest and is backed by some very serious Labour Party donors. He has a large staff, has had an office in place since the outset of the campaign and has unrivalled name recognition in comparison to his fellow candidates. Whilst it’s easy to say that David should be performing better – and perhaps he should be – currently he is leading two of the three sections of the tri-partite contest by every current measure. The most recent YouGov poll, and the last LabourList leadership survey, place him at the front of the pack. He also has a handy lead in terms of declared support from MPs, with only the union section eluding him so far. Of course these figures shouldn’t be viewed in isolation – union nominations don’t guarantee the support of union members and second preferences will be crucial in deciding the leadership – but it certainly looks healthy for David. Healthy enough anyway.

What David hasn’t done, though, is anything that is particularly out of the ordinary. Credit where it’s due, the Movement for Change, building on community organising, is savvy and shows a real sense that David understands which direction the party needs to move in when it comes to our ground operation, and our day-to-day party structures. However what we haven’t really seen much of from David are any real changes in policy direction. Whilst his fellow former cabinet colleagues have thrown off the veil of corporate responsibility and begun to sketch out where they feel the party was misguided, misdirected or just plain wrong, David has largely stayed on the well worn path of the past thirteen years. Does he feel, as the saying goes, that the song was good, but the audience just didn’t appreciate it? Or is he just uncomfortable removing the political and emotional baggage of New Labour, in a way that doesn’t seem to trouble his (2010 manifesto writing) younger brother?

For a while attempts were made to brand David as the “grassroots candidate“, although this appears to have died down since CLP nominations closed. Perhaps it was nothing more than a rallying cry. Perhaps it was a way of dealing with the perception that David is a party insider. I didn’t really buy the tag at the time, and if the campaign has shelved it for good then I think it’s a smart idea. David Miliband is what he is – an intelligent, thoughtful, Labour Party loyalist. He is an insider, but that needn’t be a negative. It’s often another way of saying he’s experienced – and he’s certainly shown that experience through his sure-footed display so far. He mightn’t have set the campaign alight, but he hasn’t put a foot wrong yet. If that continues, he’ll be hard to beat, and he’ll be the next party leader.

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