As the polls narrow – when will Labour take the lead?

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

In recent weeks, and laregly ignored by the media, Labour have been gaining in the polls. Without a permenant leader, without the shadow cabinet in place, and after a difficult election, we’re withing spitting distance of the Tories. On Tuesday Labour stood 1% behind the Tories on the YouGov daily tracker (40/39/12), and today the Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor suggests that we’re level with the Tories (37/37/15) for the first time in two years.

Clearly this is positive news for the party. We’ve got few political advantages at the moment, and party organisation is to a certain extent paused until the result of the leadership election is announced. Yet for us to be within reaching distance of the lead so early on in this parliament, and before the real pain of the coalition cuts begins to bite, suggests that there may be a way back to power in five (or less than five) years.

With the end of the leadership contest just nine days away, to be followed by conference, the possibility (if not probablity) that Labour will move ahead of the Tories in one or more opinion polls begins to present itself. Labour will dominate political coverage from Saturday evening, when the new leader is unveiled, until at least Tuesday, when they make their conference speech. The conference poll boost is an established political phenomenon – therefore if we stay as close to the Tories as we are at present for another week, it is a near certainty that a conference/leadership poll bounce will take Labour into the lead.

What the newly elected leader does at that point is crucial. It must be made crystal clear that the honeymoon period is over for the coalition, and that Labour is the government in waiting.

Only by making the most of that opportunity can Labour gain the early momentum needed to have a chance of forcing an early election. If we can’t do that, then the life chances of millions could be destroyed by the time we get the chance to do something about it.