Review of the race: Diane Abbott

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diane abbott big benBy Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Back in August when we took our first look at how the different campaigns were unfolding, I described Diane Abbott’s campaign as, “plucky, threadbare, underfunded, over-achieving and muddled”. In the last six weeks I’ve seen little to change my mind, except perhaps that it no longer seems that Diane is “over-acheiving” – Ladbrokes currently have Abbott pegged as the favourite to be eliminated first.

The organisation behind her campaign seemed to improve as the summer went on. There seemed to be more hands on deck, and emails and phonebanking began to take precedence over media appearances as Team Abbott sought to turn a difficult political climate to their advantage, and win over party members and trade unionists unconvinced by the New Labour years.

MPs though began to abandon Abbott over the summer. The initial 33 who nominated her back in June began to dwindle as those loyal to other candidates (especially David Miliband) began to express their support for others. Today Diane is supported by just 11 MPs (including Harriet Harman who may not vote for her). That’s less than 5% of the PLP, 1/3 of those who nominated her and five fewer than John McDonnell had when he stood down to support Diane. That fact alone means Abbott isn’t a viable candidate to win this election – no candidate so hobbled in one section of the ballot can expect to last through to the final round intact – but she could still be a shadow cabinet member.

Of course the very people whose support Diane will need to become a member of the shadow cabinet in the coming weeks are the very people with whom she has struggled most, her fellow MPs. Women standing for the shadow cabinet are likely to have a better chance of being elected than men (because there will be more male candidates), but Diane will still face tough competition. Even if the left of the PLP rallies round her, she’s not gaurenteed to secure a place on the front bench – even if she gets the full throated support of McDonnell, Corbyn and others on the left again.

If the vote were taken amongst the wider party, then it’s likely that Diane would be taking up a shadow cabinet role in October. She’s undoubtedly popular with a significant section of the party, although it doesn’t seem that she has a lock on the left vote – with many on the left choosing Ed Miliband, or even Balls as their first preference.

It’s not all bad news for Abbott though, and it’s important to remember the successes that Diane has had in this campaign. She has shown that the Labour Party has talent on the back benches. She helped move the debate away from immigration when the contest could have become a race to the bottom. She has given a voice to many in the party who don’t feel represented by the other candidates. And perhaps most importantly, Abbott is a bigger political figure now than she was back in June. It may not be the leadership, but it’s not to be sniffed at. Plucky? Yes. Threadbare and underfunded? Certainly. Over-achieving? Perhaps not. Muddled? Sometimes. A better race with Abbott in it? Most certainly.

Every evening this week I’ll be taking a look back at each of the leadership campaigns. The reviews will be in alphabetical order, and replace our “In the race” feature, which is taking a break until conference.

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