Tories lead the polls, but Labour has a real opportunity

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Today’s ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror contains the potentially disheartening news that the Tories have a six-point lead after the conference season (40/34/14). Meanwhile YouGov’s most recent poll suggests a lead of only 2% for the Tories (41/39/11).

However, it is the other questions from the ComRes survey that provide more cheerful Sunday reading for Labour supporters. The Tories may have a poll lead at present, but there is a rich vein of public opinion that Labour can take advantage of in this most crucial of weeks. Nearly half (46%) of those questioned believe that the government understands the interests of the wealthy better than the interests of ordinary people and 56% believe that welfare benefit cuts will hit hardest the poorest, elderly and most vulnerable in society. Even more damning for the coalition, only 30% of those polled believe that the cuts announced this week will be “fair”, compared to 43% who believe they won’t be.

At the same time, the potential for Labour to win significant support from former Lib Dem voters doesn’t yet seem to be exhausted – 24% of those who voted Lib Dem in May would now vote Labour. Only 57% of people who voted Lib Dem in May would vote Lib Dem now, suggesting that there are further inroads that Labour can make into Lib Dem support.

This week is pivotal in terms of Labour crafting economic arguments that can resonate with the “squeezed middle” that the party has been identified as crucial in winning the next election. Whilst some in the party were surprised (and perhaps even concerned) that Alan Johnson was appointed shadow chancellor ahead of some colleagues with more economic experience, it is important to remember that Ed Miliband is himself an economist, and he’ll be crucial in crafting Labour’s response.

The Observer today has snippets of a keynote speech that Johnson will give tomorrow morning, which seem to hint that Labour will move beyond the Darling plan and argue for a growth led recovery. Johnson is set to say:

“We are constantly told that there is no alternative to the current economic strategy pursued by the government. But there is another way. A balanced approach. That gets the deficit down, but recognises that growth and jobs are not a sideshow to an economic strategy.”

“Without growth, attempts to cut the deficit will be self-defeating. A rising dole queue means a bigger dole bill. And less tax coming in. The Tory plan, for all its Liberal Democrat cheerleaders, is a huge gamble with growth and jobs.”

While this will be welcomed by many in the party – and should provide a robust platform upon which to build an alternative economic strategy – it is clear that Labour’s economic plans must remain credible and easily explicable. Fortunately in Alan Johnson, Labour have one of the most accomplished communicators in British politics delivering the message. He will need every ounce of his communication skill this week.