Lessons from America

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

The results of the US midterm elections make chastening reading for those of us who cheered so loudly as Barack Obama was elected President less than two years ago. Obama now faces a tough two years with a hostile house and a Senate that could continue to hold up legislation. Republican obstructionism should be expected.

Clearly though there are lessons that can be taken from the latest US election and applied to the current British political situation. If anything, studying the 2010 US election is more important than studying the 2008 election when looking for pointers for Labour, and how an opposition party can thrive in tough economic conditions.

It’s the economy, stupid!

Bill Clinton’s campaign team lived by the now famous mantra that the economy was the most important issue in elections. Republican gains in the midterms have reinforced that idea. With a faltering economy that the Democrats haven’t been able to get under control, and unemployment above 9%, the economy was the issue which dominated this election. Exit polls showed that 88% of voters believe the economy is in bad shape, with 86% worried about the direction the economy will take over the next year. The American people haven’t shifted their political views so radically in two years that they now prefer the Republican world view to that of the Democrats, but the economy has hit confidence hard, and swing voters and looking for any alternatives they can find.

Opposition works

What Labour can learn from the success of the Republicans is clear – governments struggle for popularity in economic times a difficult as these, especially if their measures are seen to make things worse, or make little difference. There has been a clamour from many in the media (and some within the party) for Labour to develop an alternative economic strategy, and even to outline what Labour would cut. The Republican victory in the house of representatives shows us that it is possible (and perhaps even preferable) to win by being the “party of no”. Indeed, by refusing to articulate alternative policies all of the focus remains on the flaws of the incumbent government, leaving the “party of no” to be the alternative for voters.

Unemployment saps confidence

The high employment rate is seen as being particularly damning for Obama, with some even going as far as saying “It’s the unemployment rate, stupid!”. High levels of unemployment have a pronounced and negative impact upon government approval ratings, so if Osborne and Cameron’s plan to raise unemployment while reducing the deficit comes to fruition, they could struggle with damaged voter confidence come 2015. In this respect, Labour’s current tactic of attacking the Tories for failing to provide for growth and jobs is the right one, and will allow Labour to point to Tory failings in the future. Additionally, this allows Labour to do what the Tea Party Republicans have done so well – moving the debate on to our own terms. We can move away from the Tories definition of economic success (deficit reduction) and towards our own (growth and jobs).

GOTV (Get Out The Vote)

In Nevada, Harry Reid proved that GOTV works. Whilst it is understandable that many on the left wish to move towards community organising and away from traditional campaign methods as we seek to rebuild trust and faith in politics, it would surely be foolish to abandon something which has been clearly shown to work, not only in the US, but also in UK marginals like Oxford East and Islington South.

Across the US, a dedicated focus on GOTV (organised in part by “Organising For America”, the offshoot from the Obama campaign) may have staved off worse results for the Democrats, especially in close Senate races. What Labour needs to do now is utilise advanced GOTV methods, and use them as an offensive weapon in 2015, rather than a defensive one as in the last general election – pinpointing those who have suffered at the hands of the coalition and ensuring they turn out to vote.

Conclusion

The Republicans have shown that it is possible to be the “party of no” – to oppose every decision taken by the incumbents – and still win. While this isn’t a tactic that we should seek to adopt wholesale in the UK, it is one that should still be taken seriously. Ed Miliband should consider the 2010 US elections (which as a former US resident, he surely will) when considering his strategy for the coming years. Opposition works, but it is a roll of the dice, entirely dependent on the economic situation failing to improve. If we are certain that Tory policies on the economy will fail, then we too should be the “party of no”. However, if we are unsure as to the impacts of this economic experiment, then Ed may prefer instead to renew his focus on optimism. Either way, it’s the economy that will decide the next election, and Labour must make sure we’re on the right side of the arguments. The Republicans have shown the dividends that can pay, whether you have the answers or not.