Miliband popularity dips, and AV too close to call: State of the Party – February 2011

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State of the PartyBy Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Ed Miliband has seen a sharp decline in his approval rating among LabourList readers in the last month. 12% of readers still consider him to be doing an “excellent” job (-2% on last month), but the biggest change is in the percentage of readers who consider his performance “good” – down 9% to 35%. After a strong surge in January, Miliband’s performance is now rated at 2010 levels again, suggesting that an early 2011 bump hasn’t been retained. There has also been a rise in the percentage of readers who consider his performance “poor” – up 7% to 20%. This drops to 17% when non-Labour members are excluded.

Ed Balls retains his position as the most popular member of the shadow cabinet, with 85% of readers viewing him positively. As in previous months, Burnham and Cooper are the only other members of the shadow cabinet who come close to Balls’ popularity.

The battle for the hearts and minds of Labour supporters over AV is practically a dead heat. So far the Yes and No camps have taken turns at leading the way. Last month the No campaign were marginally ahead, but this time their lead has been slashed to just a fraction of 1% – with No on 40.3% and Yes on 40.1%. Labour votes will be crucial in the referendum, yet so far it seems that neither side has made a definitive breakthrough as far as LabourList readers are concerned. Perhaps tellingly though, the percentage of “don’t know” and “won’t say” responses has declined since January.

The economy/employment is still the most pressing issue for LabourList readers, with 75% of respondents listing it as a main area of interest. Other than that only education, equality and health are backed by more than 50% of readers as key concerns.

659 LabourList readers voted in the survey, which ran from Friday 25th February – Tuesday 1st March. Thanks to all who took part.

Survey Results

How do you think Ed Miliband is performing as leader so far?

Excellent – 11.2%
Good – 35.2%
Fair – 33.3%
Poor – 20.3%

What are your overall impressions of each shadow cabinet member?
Positive Negative Don’t know
Harriet Harman 63.8 19.3 18.8
Yvette Cooper 78.6 8.8 13.1
Ed Balls 85.0 12.8 2.5
Sadiq Khan 49.4 23.1 27.9
Jim Murphy 42.7 13.5 43.9
John Denham 52.9 11.3 35.9
Douglas Alexander 66.5 18.3 15.7
John Healey 41.9 15.0 44.1
Andy Burnham 80.7 8.9 10.4
Caroline Flint 43.4 27.9 29.8
Maria Eagle 22.8 13.9 63.8
Meg Hillier 11.8 12.8 75.9
Mary Creagh 23.3 11.9 65.1
Liam Byrne 34.3 29.0 36.9
Shaun Woodward 16.0 21.6 62.5
Ann McKechin 8.6 9.3 82.7
Peter Hain 43.6 22.5 35.0
Ivan Lewis 15.0 13.7 71.9
Tessa Jowell 42.7 23.8 34.0
Angela Eagle 35.9 12.4 52.4
Rosie Winterton 22.9 11.0 66.9
Hilary Benn 47.0 12.8 40.9

How will you vote in next year’s AV referendum?

Yes (In favour of AV) – 40.1%
No (Against AV / In favour of current system) – 40.3%
Don’t know – 17.0%
Won’t vote – 2.6%

Do you support some form of primary for selecting Labour Party candidates?

Yes – 44.8%
No – 35.0%
Don’t Know – 20.2%

What are your main areas of interest?

Response Percent
Crime / Justice 28.9%
Culture 27.5%
Defence 14.5%
Economy / Employment 75.0%
Education 65.1%
Electoral Reform 21.1%
Environment / Climate Change 29.0%
Equality 52.6%
Families 25.7%
Health 53.5%
Housing 43.1%
International Development 19.2%
International Relations 26.5%
Immigration 12.8%
Parliamentary / Constitutional Reform 27.9%
Party Democracy 31.2%
Taxation 36.0%
Transport 24.2%
Unions 32.8%
Workers’ Rights 48.5%

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