An improvement – but much more to do

By Anthony Painter / @anthonypainter

Let’s get the easy calls out of the way first. This was an appalling, abysmal, soul-destroying, structural defeat for the Liberal Democrats. They have been annihilated in Scotland and the north. For activists and councilors who are used to year on year improvements and incremental gain, this will be a shock to the system. The message ‘from the doorstep’ that Nick Clegg seeks to ‘learn’ from is loud and clear- get out of the coalition or there is more of this to come.

For the Conservatives, they will be exceedingly relaxed. Those who support the coalition vote for them. Those who don’t kick the Liberal Democrats. Their vote has held up in England and they have even (as of 10:24am) made a few gains – at the Liberal Democrats expense across the south.

In Labour’s case, the picture is far less certain. Scotland is clearly a disaster and there must now be a deep inquiry within the party up there. Liberal Democrat voters went to the SNP en masse. Labour is a tribal block that seems to have little appeal to disgruntled voters of other parties. The party shouldn’t console itself that its vote has barely fallen. This was a new electoral landscape and Labour fell well short. It’s easy to blame Iain Gray – and he must bear some responsibility for a strategy that focused on the Conservatives instead of the SNP. But this is a more profound failure than that.

These are Scottish elections and really nothing to do with Ed Miliband. From that perspective, Labour will not take a national hit though it does mar the night. What it doesn’t mean – contrary to the hysterical reaction in some of the media – is that Scotland is hurtling towards independence. In fact, their majority could force the SNP to overreach and go for a referendum that will mobilise its opposition. Hubris awaits.

More broadly, the picture for Labour across England is mixed. Where it is face to face with the Liberal Democrats it’s been a breeze. The key though is those mainly Midlands and southern industrial, new, and commuter towns often found alongside motorway corridors. These are the places that Labour wins when it is heading for office. There was good news in places like Telford and the Wrekin, Thanet, North Warwickshire and Gravesham – and there are still over half of results to come in – but more mixed news elsewhere.

There are two initial conclusions to this: Labour has improved its position considerably since the general election and that is good but it still has a way to go. Did the AV campaign harm Labour? I’d put it another way. It helped the Conservatives. It helped them to get their vote out given it was far more certain about AV and motivated to vote. It also meant the focus of the campaign was constitutional reform rather than the cuts and their impact on local communities.

However, this is a tactical question. There are still longer term structural issues about Labour’s appeal in those corridor towns and, in places, there is further organisational work to be done. Labour has travelled a considerable distance since last May but nowhere near enough. These local elections may have been a missed opportunity to drive some key critiques about the Conservative-led government home.

Having said that, should Labour be concerned with where it is at this point of the electoral cycle a year after its second largest defeat in living memory? No, it’s in a reasonable position. The worry is that the Conservatives seem to be holding on to their support. Much to be done.