Vote Labour, Vote No

By Joan Ryan

The most important arguments against the Alternative Vote are ones of principle – such as the importance of keeping our ‘one person, one vote’ system rather than giving supporters of the most unpopular parties extra votes.

That said, if you believe that the Labour Party is the best vehicle for creating a fair, progressive Britain, it’s critical to say No to Clegg’s AV referendum. If AV were implemented, it would cost the Labour Party seats in most elections, make it nearly impossible for Labour to win a majority, and preserve the Tory-led coalition.

Let’s take a look at what would have happened under AV in previous elections. Because it tends to exaggerate the effect of decisive elections, under AV Labour would have gained more seats in 1997, but had even fewer seats throughout the 1980s. The party would have lost 30 or so more seats in the 1983, 1987 and 1992 elections, giving Margaret Thatcher even more power.

AV only helps Labour in elections that we would win anyway. Labour Yes supporters focus on the three elections under Blair – elections that we won under first past the post – and ignore the fact that AV would have hurt Labour in the Thatcher elections and in close elections like 1992 and 2010. As pollster Peter Kellner has said, AV ‘would have driven Labour yet further into the wilderness in 1983 and 1987′.

By contrast, the Liberal Democrats always benefit from AV. They would gain more seats under almost any scenario, and Clegg would get to play ‘kingmaker’ over and over again. In the 2010 election, for example, the Liberal Democrats would have won an extra 32 seats under AV according to the British Election Study. That’s why David Laws described the system as a ‘shield against’ their unpopularity.

The other big winners from a Yes vote will be parties like the BNP and National Front. Supporters of fringe parties will be the first – and in some cases only – people to get their vote counted again, and they’ll have more influence over the result in marginal seats than anyone else. AV may not make it more likely that the BNP will win seats, but I can guarantee that their vote share would rise and the ‘free protest vote’ afforded by the ranked choices could be the catalyst for turning them from a party which only gains recognition in proportional voting systems (the EU and GLA elections) to one that has to be pandered to at general elections.

I support the idea of uniting Britain’s progressive majority, but this dream has been shattered by Clegg’s sell-out. The Liberal Democrats could have left the Conservatives to govern alone, but instead they are supporting the most right-wing, ideological government in the post-war era, making cuts that even Thatcher would have flinched from.

If people vote No on the referendum, however, it could push this unprincipled coalition to the breaking point. Clegg’s credibility depends on a Yes vote, and voting No makes a Lib Dem leadership challenge much more likely. To quote Peter Kellner again, ‘Without AV, the Lib Dems’ prospects at the next general election could be bleak’.

A Yes vote, on the other hand, would strengthen the Lib-Con coalition. The Yes campaign has repeatedly claimed that the Labour Party would benefit from Lib Dem voters’ support under AV. Unfortunately, this is entirely mistaken: Only 16% of Lib Dems want a Labour-led government after the next election, while 51% would prefer to see David Cameron in Downing St. Since the general election, polls show that many progressive Lib Dem voters have returned to supporting Labour and the remaining Lib Dems are increasingly likely to give their second preferences to Conservatives.

As a result, AV would make it harder for Labour to win Lab-Con marginals and make gains in the south. In the 50 most marginal Conservative seats where Labour finished second in 2010, polling last summer showed that Labour would win 28 seats from the Conservatives under first past the post but only 16 under AV.

Had the last general election been held under AV, 20 current Labour MPs would not be in the House of Commons. AV would save Clegg’s skin, but that’s no reason for Labour supporters to vote for it. On the other hand, if the referendum fails, it could tear the coalition apart.

Joan Ryan is the Director of Labour NO to AV and former Labour MP for Enfield North.