Who will be Scottish Labour’s next leader?

Scottish Labour suffered a crushing defeat on Thursday at the hands of the SNP. It was inevitable after such a display that Iain Gray would announce his resignation as leader, triggering a leadership contest over the coming months.

Whilst Ed Miliband and his team conduct a “root and branch review”, the party north of the border must busy itself with selecting a new leader, so we’ve spent the last few days looking at some of the frontrunners. Any of these candidates could conceivably be one of the most important people in the Labour Party within a few months in what looks to be an open race.

You can read our assessment of the candidates, and their chances of success, below.

Jackie Baillie – Well respected by Scottish journalists, and Baillie did a good job putting pressure on the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon over health issues. Her backing in the media could propel her into the race. Update: We’re hearing that Baillie (contrary to early rumours), is getting support from across the party. She should be be a frontrunner unless another big hitter steps up.

Hugh Henry – Described by everyone we’ve spoken to in the Scottish Party as “a really nice guy”, Henry has the biggest majority of those who are rumoured to be standing. The former Militant member would be one of the two most likely to be considered a left candidate (the other being Lamont). However the party in Scotland seems to tack more towards the right than either London or Welsh Labour. Therefore the possibility of having a Scottish Rodri Morgan or Ken Livingstone is somewhat slim. Then again, this is no ordinary leadership race… Update: Hugh won’t be standing for the leadership after all. Instead he’s in the running to be the parliament’s next presiding officer.

Johann Lamont – Lamont is the current deputy leader and probably the strongest female candidate in the race. However she only just held her seat in Glasgow and has sometimes suffered from the accusation that she isn’t personable enough. However, she is good in the chamber, polled very well during the deputy leadership election and is considered to have done a good job. If she stands she should get backing from trade unions and figures like Margaret Curran.

Ken Macintosh – Highly rated Macintosh could be an early frontrunner should he decide to run. He would be likely to secure support from Jim Murphy and other senior figures in the party and having worked in TV he is thought as one of the most media savvy MSPs. Although he has a slim majority, there has been plenty of talk (although some have labelled it “hype”) about how well he did to retain his seat. Yet a leader in a marginal seat is still a risk, as his opponents will no doubt be keen to point out.

Elaine Murray – Only elected to a her new seat last Thursday after her old seat was abolished, this long standing and very experienced MSP could be a dark horse in a tight and congested race. However despite being an MSP since 1999 she has never held a major frontline role. Something of an outsider in this race, but could this be her chance to shine?

John Park – A strong contender, yet before the election there were strong rumours that he either wanted to replace Gordon Brown in Westminster as an MP (they are close) or even leave Scottish politics altogether. Park would be the continuity candidate, but also the candidate to beat on his connections alone – if he stands he’d be expected to have the backing of Unite. Yet as the person who headed up what is almost universally considered to be a disastrous campaign, Park may face some of the backlash. Update: It seems that the rumours that Park didn’t want to seek the top job were true – he has pulled out of the race.

It remains to be seen how crowded the field will be in the race to be Scottish Labour leader. Whoever is successful will face a very tough fight with a weakened and demoralised party. The party will need to choose someone who can handle both the internal and external aspects of leading a party. From a depleted pool of MSPs, that might not be too easy, but that’s the challenge ahead of these candidates, and anyone else who may stand.

This is our early prediction based on conversations with Scottish party members. Do you know something we don’t? Email us and let us know.