100 days, 100 percent

January 27, 2012 4:24 pm

It’s just 100 days to the London Mayoral elections.

Ken Livingstone’s recent poll surge is good news but it would be foolish to be complacent about thinking this means certain victory.

Ken’s challenge to Boris Johnson on fares has certainly made an impact. And Boris’s rather pathetic response of “he would promise that wouldn’t he, but he’ll not be able to deliver it” does not wash. Ken will deliver it. His track record on low fares goes back to when Boris was still in short trousers.

And I write as one who in my time has criticised Ken when necessary. I was a member of the London Assembly and my job was to hold him to account, and I used the opportunity. So take it from me Boris – when Ken promises on this he will deliver.

There remain three big challenges for Labour.

Ken needs to resonate more in outer London where train fares more than bus or tube fares are the issue. He needs to be loud and clear about his plans for tackling crime and he has to make sure that the Labour vote turns out.

In 2008 Ken won more votes in inner London and among black and minority ethnic voters than the current Mayor. Boris won the majority in outer London seats. This divide was stark and I believe needs to be broken down if we are to have a really effective Mayoralty. We need to actively woo the outer London voter.

Across London we are picking up concerns about crime on the doorstep. Concern about police numbers is making an impact. And there are real rises in street crime in many areas.

When outer London mothers of men in their 30s start ringing to check their son’s got home it’s bad news. When women are frightened to go on late night transport this is the real concern.

Ken needs to address these concerns. The Mayor on drug raids with armed police does not address the worries that cause Londoners to change their day to day behaviour. Gimmicks are not reassuring. Londoners can see through the PR.

Here too Ken has a track record of delivery. This was largely through increases in police numbers in his first term in office to 2004. But Ken also pioneered the introduction of police community support officers. These replaced a myriad of differently uniformed neighbourhood wardens with similar but different roles. Ken saw through this and simplified it.

Now money is tighter so Ken needs to be clear and simple in explaining that he understands these fears and that he has a plan to keep Londoners safe.

The Tory electoral strategy in 2008 was simple. In every polling district which the Tories had won in 2004 the aim was to identify and turn out enough extra Tory voters to win. Simple enough to motivate activists to deliver and know they could make a difference. And they delivered the Mayoralty to the Conservatives for the first time.

So the electoral strategy for Labour in 2012 is not rocket science. The number of activists out every weekend in my own area of Hackney underlines the understanding that Labour votes here can counteract Conservative votes in strongholds such as Westminster.

But we cannot look at the polls and ease off. We need to turn out our vote. We need to win London. Media manufactured debates about party leadership are an intellectual exercise that belies the reality of the next 100 days.

So for those who are armchair critics of Labour: don’t turn in on ourselves. Speculation about leadership is an indulgence that we cannot afford. We need now more than ever to focus on what really matters. My constituents need a Labour Mayor so I shall be giving the next 100 days 100 percent.

Meg Hillier is MP for Hackney South and Shoreditch

  • Anonymous

    What worries me is if Ken gets another chance, will he have learned from his past mistakes. No more Lee Jaspar for example and his schemes. When Ken was presented with evidence regarding Mr Jaspar all he did was shoot the messenger by just pretending it was some media plot.

    The trouble with the Mayorality is that it encourages patronage often of rather dubious characters (Johnson has been equally as guilty). Expensive mistakes are bad enough in central government, in London we pay twice over

  • Anonymous

    We will see, and we will know it’s not that long now

  • Anonymous

    Ms Hillier says of Mr Livingstone that his “track record on low fares goes back to when Boris was still in short trousers”.

    What is that record? According to Mr Andrew Gilligan, blogging at the Daily Telegraph, it suggests that Mr Livingstone’s record is utterly dreadful.  I cut and paste:

    “Promise
    “I will freeze bus and tube fares in real terms for four years” – Ken Livingstone manifesto at May 2000 election
    What actually happened
    - In January 2004, the single bus fare outside central London was raised from 70p to £1, a rise of 43%.  Fares on the Tube rose by up to 25%. Inflation was 2.6% at the time. (Oyster pay as you go users could avoid these rises, but Oyster pay as you go was not introduced on buses until later in 2004.)
    - The weekly bus pass for those travelling outside central London rose from £7.50 to £9.50, a rise of 26.6%. For those travelling in central London it rose by 11.7%, from £8.50 to £9.50. See pp210-14 of this PDF.
    - Livingstone himself states in his recent memoirs (page 491): “I decided to increase the fares before the [2004] election.”
     
    Promise
    A rise in the congestion charge “won’t be necessary. It’s now quite clear that £5 was enough. I can’t conceive of any circumstances in the foreseeable future where we would want to change the charge, although perhaps ten years down the line it may be necessary” – Ken Livingstone, Daily Telegraph, 25 February 2003
    What actually happened
    Just over two years later, in July 2005, the congestion charge rose by 60% (from £5 to £8). Livingstone had made no mention of this in his 2004 election manifesto.
     
    Promise
    “I will hold any future fare increases to no more than the rate of inflation” – Ken Livingstone, 34th mayor’s report to London assembly, 2003, after announcing 2004 increase.
    Livingstone also states this in his recent memoirs (page 491): “I decided to increase the fares before the [2004] election and then promise that they wouldn’t rise by more than inflation.”
    What actually happened
    - In January 2005, the single Oyster bus fare was raised from 70p to 80p (a rise of 14.3%). Inflation was 3.2 per cent at the time.
    - In February of the same year, the fare was raised again for peak hour travellers from 80p to £1 (a further rise of 25%.) The peak rise had been planned to start from January, but was delayed by seven weeks because of technical glitches.
    - In January 2007, the off-peak Oyster single bus fare was also raised from 80p to £1 – a 25% rise. Inflation was 4.2 per cent at the time.
    - Just before the election, Livingstone reduced the fare from £1 to 90p. Even allowing for this, bus fares during Ken’s second term rose by about 11 per cent above inflation over the same period.
    - TfL was condemned for misleading by the Advertising Standards Authority after claiming in publicity material that fares had been frozen.
    - Livingstone himself admits in his recent memoirs (p497) that he “increase[d] the fares…this meant breaking my promise not to raise fares faster than inflation.”
     
    Promise
    “I see no need to raise fares above the rate of inflation and I guarantee to hold down fares to the rate of inflation in 2009 and 2010.” – Ken Livingstone, press conference, 30 October 2007.
    “There should not be any reason why fares need to rise more than in line with inflation over the next four years.” – Ken Livingstone to London Assembly, 14 November 2007 (see p25 of this PDF.)
    What actually happened
    - On 24 October 2007, just six days before promising the opposite at his press conference, Livingstone had secretly approved plans to increase bus fares by two per cent above inflation, and Tube fares by one per cent above inflation, in both 2009 and 2010.
    - In emails leaked to the Evening Standard, TfL’s director of finance, Steve Allen, stated: “TfL’s [fares plans], approved by the board and the Mayor, are materially different from the Mayor’s most recent statements and he will be asked awkward questions once that becomes clear.”
    In the same emails Peter Hendy, the transport commissioner, admitted that Ken was telling “stories” on fares.”"

    So I, taking over from the indefatigable Mr Gilligan, continue, is there any reason to believe what Mr Livingstone is now promising?  Mr Gilligan says not, but you might say – with Mandy Rice -Davies – that he would say that.  But Channel 4 – no bunch of right wingers – agree with Mr Gilligan: http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/can-ken-livingstone-deliver-a-fare-deal-for-london/9186

    I apologise for the length of this post and the large extent to which it is simply a cut and paste, but to suggest that Labour and Mr Livingstone can rely upon the latter’s record on fares is – to put it mildly – eccentric.

    • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

      Yawn… Why didn’t you just post a link?

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