High hopes and expectations (and fears) for 2012

2011 didn’t have much to write home about for politics in general. Europe’s political elite – politicians of all stripes – have been pretty poor in dealing with the economic crisis before them. While I’ll admit I was never Gordon Brown’s biggest fan, I did spend much of 2011 wondering who it was among the 27 leaders who would be following his 2008 example and picking up the phone and cajoling, persuading and perhaps even begging the others in to a particular course of action to chart our way out of this nightmare. But seemingly none of them quite has the mettle to lead. None more so than Cameron and his rather pathetic veto that stopped nothing.

All of this, and more in one of the busiest political years ever, created some opportunities for Labour. Some that we took, some that we didn’t so well. But I think we saw the beginnings of some positive moves to rebuild the party into a fighting force for the next election. I believe we’ve laid the foundations and the starting point for 2012 is pretty much as Luke Akehurst set out for Progress just before Christmas. So where do I think we can and should go in 2012 – and crucially whose responsibility is it?

What I hope for from our leader and shadow cabinet

It’s never been more true that “it’s the economy stupid”. Pretty much everyone (apart from George Osborne) thinks the UK will dip back in to recession at some point this year. Currently nearly 2000 a day are being added to the jobless total. Incomes are falling in real terms at a faster rate than pretty much forever as wages stagnate and inflation soars. Economics is real for ordinary people. In the shopping basket, in the wage packet at the end of the month and in the jobless figures. And many of these growing problems can be laid firmly at the Tories’ door. They’ve increased our debt. They’ve seen hundreds of thousands more out of work and continue to cut too far too fast.

No one should expect Ed (or Eds) to lay out a detailed economic plan for 2015 in 2012. We just don’t know where we’ll be and we end up handing the opposition a tool with which to beat us. Broad principles are good enough. In 2011 we started this work and started well. I’d like to see Ed M build on his predators vs producers analysis – everyone who’s ever had a job knows there are good and bad employers and anyone who’s ever bought something knows there is good and bad customer service. It’s an analysis grounded in real people’s experiences and can be built for the future, both in terms of how good and bad business practice can have significant benefits for or a devastating impact on the economy and their local communities, but also in terms of what it means for real people’s lives.

In addition Ed has done all the running on the major narrative about the income squeeze and drop in living standards with his ‘squeezed middle’ analysis. This should be further developed and evidence based. It lends itself to the personal and local politics that all good campaigning is based. Because we can all use local examples of local services that have been lost or pared back. Local jobs that have been lost and local prices that are rising.

While the economy is going to be the major battleground again in 2012 I think we also need to hit the Tories where we can hurt them on other major policy areas. Particularly Health and Education. In the NHS waiting lists are growing before £20bn has to be cut from budgets. Thousands of schools have lost vital money to rebuild or refurbish and budgets there are being cut. We should press the Tories on their pre-election promises on both policy areas because they are weak. We can link falling standards in both to broken pre-election promises and failing policy. It’s a win we should go for it.

In deciding on a strategic focus now we end up less buffeted by events. It still allows room for manoeuvre on big issues like for example hacking, but would keep us focused on the prize.

What I hope for from our party organisers

Refounding Labour has given local parties new responsibilities, but also a unique opportunity to organise in a way that suits us as the local building blocks of the party.

My real fear for the year is that CLPs could be left on their own while the national party looks to high membership CLPs and councillors to fill the coffers nationally. While I believe in redistribution and am happy to support fundraised money (and indeed donate regularly) so the party can campaign in marginal seats, there’s a big concern that the party proposals particularly around funding and the councillor levy could have a negative impact on parties like ours that invest in local campaigning and organisational infrastructure. Any new way of raising money – such as the new councillor levy – must be transparent, accountable and take in to account local investment in campaigning that must not be undermined.

Many of us that have been actively involved in campaigning will be able to hold the party to account without any extra effort – we’ll be able to see whether we are winning council seats back from the Tories in marginal seats. We’ll be able to judge the strength of the investment. The party will need to deliver.

As local parties we will also need some support in how best to reorganise. A very specific request is a space on membersnet where CLPs and LGCs can share ideas on how parties should be constituted and a systematic way, through regional offices of ensuring that good ideas for structures, organisation and process are shared. This is going to be particularly important as this will be starting to happen just before the party re-organisation for the 2015 boundary changes takes place. If neighbouring CLPs or borough structures come up with very different methods of organising we could end up with a right mess to sort out when they start to be broken up and rebuilt in 2013.

What I hope for from London (and local elections)

A Ken win.

It’s going to be tough. Boris is no ordinary Tory and isn’t viewed as one by Londoners. But today’s Fare Deal campaigning showed thousands of us are prepared to get up on one of the coldest, wettest mornings we’ve had in months and campaign against Tory policies that are hitting Londoners in the pocket. And bad for jobs and growth. And Ken is hitting back with a campaign that just connects, on a very human level with Londoners. We need more of it please!

If we’re going to win this will need to be one of the best organised and motivational campaigns ever. But we’re all there, ready, willing and primed to pound the streets for Ken.

Outside London we have elections in many of the key seats we need to win to have a chance in 2015. The locals this year provide a further opportunity to demonstrate, in actual votes for Labour, that we are gaining ground. Those who went jelly kneed at Cameron’s brief EU bounce need some calming.  While the London contest might overshadow the media coverage it’s other parts of the country where the General Election will be won or lost. How we perform in these elections will be a far better indicator of how Labour is doing under Ed’s leadership than either the London result (win or lose) or the opinion polls. Based on last May and by-elections since we’re doing better than many of Ed’s detractors would have you believe.

And finally

2012 is a key year for Labour. Ed set up 2 year policy reviews that will conclude this year. There are key elections and the party is going to start undergoing it’s biggest organisational shake up pretty much forever.  There are big challenges ahead. But the building blocks are there. Labour can make great strides this year, particularly if we, as activists, all pull together and put in serious shifts in against the coalition, against the economic and political settlement they are offering and continue to fight for the alternative and fight for Labour values.