Boris is back in the lead – but what’s below the top line?

There’s another poll out today on the mayoral race from YouGov for the Evening Standard – and after Ken Livingstone’s surge in their last poll, it’s now Boris who is (just) ahead (51-49). We’re well within the margin of error, as we were with the last YouGov poll, so essentially it’s neck and neck. After months of big leads and volatile polling, the race is settling down in its final months to be what it was always likely to be – a tight race that will be decided on the day. Or as the Evening Standard put it:

“a bookmakers’ dream: a battle between two heavyweights that could go either way.”

In a tight battle like this one, organisation is everything. That should give supporters of Labour and Livingstone cause for cheer. The greatest lesson to come from Labour’s 2010 campaign was that “on the ground” campaigns are absolutely key in winning when the polls are tight. The Livingstone campaign have heeded this lesson, and invested heavily in a “ground war” strategy – phone banking, co-ordinated door knocking, investment in organisers on the ground – that provides a stark contrast with the “air war” deployed by Team Boris. For the Tory mayor’s campaign, publicity for the candidate matters above all else,. In contrast the Labour campaign focussed on getting a strong organisational base in place before the “Fare Deal” media blitz in recent months that mirrored Ken’s poll boost.

Who is successful is likely to be determined by which approach is more suited to the style of contest we’re seeing. If London is a “single issue” campaign (like a referedum) then “air war” might have a place, but if this is an issue based mid-term election – which I believe it is – then the organisational “ground war” is all important. This is especially true when considering that Ken recieves a smaller percentage of his own party’s vote that Boris (82% vs 91%). The power of CLPs across London to turn out the Labour vote (far bigger than the generic Tory vote in London) and ensure that a higher percentage backs Ken will be crucial in delivering victory in May.

For either a ground war or an air war to work though, a campaign needs issues to work with and “squeeze” the electorate – especially when turning out voters in a potentially low turnout election. It is the issues – rather than the top line – which Boris should be looking at today. Although we know he’s not so hot on detail, even he should be able to see the issues that Londoners care about are not moving in his direction.

Transport and Crime are the most important issues for Londoners – with Ken Livingstone’s 7% fare cut having far greater resonance than any other policy. 36% of voters describing this as the most appealing policy put forward by the mayoral candidates. In second place with 21% is increasing police numbers, whilst Boris Johnson’s measly £3.10 1% council tax cut is viewed as the most appealing policy by just 9%.

The top line figures migight suggest that Boris has his nose marginally in front at the moment, but he has little room to manoeuvre on the issues that matter most to Londoners. It’s going to be an interesting race – whether it takes place in the sky, or on the ground. And it’s there to be won.