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We’re 5 points ahead, did you notice?

February 8, 2012 10:16 am

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Mark Ferguson

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The latest YouGov poll released last night was as follows:

CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%

That’s the highest Labour lead YouGov have shown since before David Cameron’s veto in December, and a significant shift away from the level pegging we’ve seen between the parties in recent weeks.

My first reaction was to write this off as a rogue poll – but responding to me on Twitter last night, Michael Dugher MP said:

“Rogue polls only get coverage if they put the Conservatives 5 points ahead…”

He’s right you know. Perhaps we’ll see the Tories flying into a frenzy of panic about their poor polling today? Somehow, I imagine that won’t be the case…

http://twitter.com/carlbaker Carl Baker
Maybe so, but there are all kinds of possible explanation for the discrepancy here:
(a) our side knows better to be cautious about what one can infer from a single poll (which would be a good thing — far better to ignore it until it becomes a trend!)
(b) given the economic situation, it’d be more of a surprise to find the govt 5 points up than to find the opposition 5 points up.
etc…

Anonymous
Here here

Redshift
To be fair, it does match the timing of the party finally delivering a couple of harder messages:-
Opposition to ludicrous bonuses3 months to save the NHS
Both of these are popular with the public and things that people have been disappointed that Labour hasn’t argued a stronger case on.
Keep pushing those lines as well as criticism of unemployment and growth and we can make this a consistent trend.

Anonymous
He has to tell the public where he is, it’s no good a minister saying he backs private companies working in the NHS, then we hear that Miliband does not it’s not joined up at all.
And the Tories have been waiting 60 years to do this.

Redshift
I think he did just the other day, in his article that was about having 3 months to save the NHS and apparently the shadow cabinet have agreed this to be the primary message over the next few months – better late than never.
If they stick to that, I can see this lead being sustained or even expanded. Keep reiterating the criticism, keep saying we will reverse the reforms and encourage the party to get the message out on the doorstep, and they can win big on this.

Anonymous
You hope! the problem is about trust, would you trust a party that took a year to decide that the NHS was a priority, we have three months to save the NHS should have been we have a year to save the NHS, but to much of what is going on is of course caused by New labour.
But of course people listen they hear the opposition minister say oh I do not really mind privatisation of some parts.
Miliband has to rein in his ministers tell them and us what his priorities are, you do not need policies, but again what about education, no more education education education, it now well the Tories might be right.
yet in Wales and Scotland they are saying nope sorry it’s wrong.
We now have the Scottish labour party, the English Labour party and the welsh, sadly we all have to be members of the English one.

http://twitter.com/joshfg Joshua Fenton-Glynn
I think the tories are showing themselves to be the nasty party, and an incompitent nasty party at that, I think the reaction to the Welfare Reform Bill and NHS reform bill (which doubtlessly this is) shows that a party who has aspiration for a party who want to build world class services, not the cheapest services tories can get away with.

Anonymous
The Labour Party are in agreement with The Conservatives on the Welfare Bill.

http://twitter.com/joshfg Joshua Fenton-Glynn
Have you been watching any of the votes in the House of Lords, or indeed speached by Baroness Lister (Ed Miliband’s best appointment to the Lords IMHO).

Anonymous
But of course the Tories side stepped the question. But Miliband is trying but I’m not to sure he has not decided what he wants to back
Anonymous
It was reported that Ed Miliband didn’t want the Labour Lords to vote against the Government. Liam Byrne has basically endorsed the Governments plan; he’s even gone further, preferring a regional based cap.
Labour want to build world class services??? To do that they would need money. There isn’t any…
Anonymous
Do I need to remind you of Miliband conference speech on disability and illness, you do not even need to be a doctor these days to decide if your able to work just look at them.

Anonymous
Sadly true. Labour gave the Tories David Freud, Frankie Field is best buddies with Duncan-Smith, and TBH you can barely get a sheet of Bronco between Labour and the Coaliton – the pretence of outrage looks very bogus in some quarters

Anonymous
Maybe, it is because Ed Miliband has started to oppose things a bit more forcefully.
However, I think that the Labour Party should be way ahead of the rest because there are two Parties in Government doing unpopular things and they are the only ‘real’ opposition.
It shouldn’t be that much of a struggle, or should it?
Mr Chippy
Funny I have seen little comment from the BBC’s Nick Robinson on Milibands turn around.
http://twitter.com/SimonG_1 Simon
rogue poll.
tonight labour 2% behind again.
Anonymous
Currently only about 6% of Coalition cuts have taken place with 94% yet to happen. The full horror of the Coalition’s programme will only begin to become apparent from the spring of 2013 onwards: from April next year the pain, injustice and misery inflicted on the weakest and most helpless members of our society will be impossible for anyone to ignore. Even now critical articles in respect to welfare reform have appeared in the Mail Online, viz.,
Welfare Reform Bill: Where is our national conscience?
In just over a year more of the same will undoubtedly begin to appear in Tory organs like the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail when the staggeringly badly thought out Welfare Reform package goes sour and fails both the country and its people.
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to any polls or psephology now.
But from the Spring of 2013 onwards – when Coalition lies, deceits, broken promises and failures finally come home to roost – if Labour are only 5% ahead of the Conservatives I would begin to worry. With unalloyed, unadulterated, undiluted, unreconstructed, unconnected, unsympathetic, uncompassionate idiots like Liam Byrne charged with developing Labour policy I still wouldn’t be surprised if Labour managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at the next general election.

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