Labour’s budget bounce

March 26, 2012 10:15 pm

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Beware rogue polls etc. but even with that in mind, this is a poll that stands out. Especially when (and bear in mind this is an unweighted sample) the Labour lead was +17 points post “Sleaze Sunday”:

ComRes/Indy – CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 11%

A Ten point lead. That’s Labour’s biggest lead for years. The YouGov poll tonight isn’t too shabby either:

YouGov/Sun: CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%

Both well outside of the margin of error. In the Times it’s a little less rosy, but still a clear lead:

Populus/Times: Con 34%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%

There’s a definite “Budget Bounce” here.

  • Amber Star

    Populus, like ICM, make an adjustment for likelihood to vote. That’s why their numbers aren’t quite so good for Labour.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

      Only this tends to underplay Labour, given that our vote has been less likely to show for the past couple of elections – this won’t necessarily be the case next time. 

      • Bill Lockhart

        People who don’t vote aren’t “your vote”. They’re nobody’s “vote”. Next you’ll be demanding power for Labour because some people who abstained last time *might* have voted Labour had they bothered.
        Democracy doesn’t work like that.

        • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

          Rubbish. There are very clear indications that Tory voters stayed away from the polls in 2001, only partially returning in 2005, for example. There is certainly ample evidence that some Labour voters chose not to vote for anyone last time, but are not about to go and vote Conservative. Hence the importance of winning back those votes rather than wasting our time with people like you, who have so little to do that they spend their time trolling on sites of parties they never vote for. 

          Sad little man  

          • treborc

             I suspect a lot of Tory voter stayed at home hence the Tories did not win out right. Of course labour have to get the people who did not vote back, but I suspect telling everyone that labour is middle class all the time is not helping

          • Jeremy_Preece

             Treborc: I suspect that your Tory Party prooving that it is really only interested in the top 1% of the population (in terms of wealth that is) has done Cameron very few favours.

  • Thomas_Stephens

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5072

    This UKPR analysis makes interesting reading – some of the comments below are also quite positive for Labour. Unfortunately, however, the post-Sunday section of the ComRes poll contacted only 350 people – a statistically insignificant sample. We’ll have to wait into the next few weeks to garner the extent – and the sustainability – of Labour’s lead, but nevertheless the poll figures are unprecedented for Ed Miliband. His showing at the Budget was also outstanding. He didn’t slur his words against Francis Maude today either – he could have said a bit more, but then at least he bothered to turn up.

  • Amber Star

    Off topic but the NHS Transition Risk Register has been leaked. It is like a generic corporate transition document filled with ‘wonk’ speak about costs/ savings/property ‘vehicles’ etc. I think patients are mentioned once, maybe twice.

    It’s as if they are managing the transition of a corporate IT system not healthcare for 50 million people. It’s the things which aren’t in it that is shocking!

  • mikestallard

    OK So Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg are not delivering what they said – a reduction in spending by the government and slashing the debt and deficit. 
    The rest is just froth.
    More and more the European government and bureaucracy is the place to look for our economic and legal decisions.
    Meanwhile we are going broke which, of course, means that our currency is going to take a serious tumble and we – that’s you and me – are going to go bankrupt in a few years’ time.

    I am genuinely asking what the Labour policy is in all this because I really do not know.

    It cannot be to increase the borrowing and the state expenditure even more, driving the currency into melt-down.

    Can it?

    • Hugh

       “OK So Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg are not delivering what they said”

      It’s not just that – they were already not delivering that pre-budget. This reflects the fact that cutting the 50p rate while decreasing pensioners tax allowance (and trying to hide it) was politically inept.

      • mikestallard

        You are talking pennies.
        Zimbabwe, Turkey, Argentina have all had mega inflation in the last twenty years. We face the same.

        Oh no – we are British so it cannot happen to us.

        • Hugh

          Even if we did face hyperinflation, it wouldn’t make the budget any more politically adroit.

          • mikestallard

            I love the subjunctive mood! Let’s hope that it is justified.

    • Jeremy_Preece

       Or look at it the other way. How can we exist as a country with huge unemployment, and a lack of tax payers and revenue. The current Tory method is only shrinking the economy and not expanding the revenue.
      A company that is in serious trouble will do better to win new business rather than to cut its way into profit (which won’t happen). The firms that did that tended to go out of business.

      So the question could be whether we can afford not to invest.

  • Mike Murray

    Yes, UK Polling Report are projecting a 60 seat majority in the event of a General Election. Well done Ed Miliband. No wonder the Tories and their Lib Dem stooges wanted to destroy his reputation.

    • Hugh

       That seems an odd lesson to draw from it. Had Ed Miliband been replaced by a moderately ripe orange for the past week it seems likely the polling would be exactly the same.

      • Mike Murray

        I don’t think a moderately ripe orange would have given Ed’s brilliant response to the budget.

        • Hugh

           I don’t think Ed’s “brilliant response” has anything to do with the polls.

          • Mike Murray

            Everyone I talk to think Ed’s budget response was highly effective and has influenced the polls  but there is no doubt that events and the same old Tories are certainly helping him.

          • Hugh

            Most people won’t have even seen it.

          • Mike Murray

            Pensioners will have seen it.

          • Hugh

            And if they hadn’t they’d be backing Osborne’s decision to reduce their tax relief?

          • Mike Murray

            Of course not, and certainly not when those who had seen it had discussed Ed’s performance with them. But you are obviously no supporter of his.

          • Hugh

             And you obviously are. It doesn’t really alter the fact that it seems very unlikely Miliband’s response has much to do with how the budget has gone down with retirees.

            As for pensioners sitting around discussing Ed’s performance, if that’s what I have to look forward to in my twilight years I think I’ll just keep on working.

          • Mike Murray

            If the Rabid Right go on breaking the contract between the State and those  people who have been paying PAYE for decades you won’t have a choice comrade. You’ll be forced to work into your seventies. It still doesn’t alter the fact that Labour are ahead in the polls largely due to Ed’s brilliant leadership.

          • Hugh

             I’ve replied above.

          • Jeremy_Preece

             Yes but we are going back to default politics again. It is probably the fact that Cameron almost hung himself. Therefore by default the vote goes up for the opposition. But that is a long way from the electroate at a real election deciding that they trust Labour

    • treborc

       So you rather a labour with a Liberal stooge, the same  thing really.

      • Mike Murray

        Don’t understand what you are talking about. Are you a Tory?

        • treborc

          yes…

          • Mike Murray

            Ah, now I understand why you don’t say anything  positive about Labour.

          • treborc

             Why I’m a Tory

    • Jeremy_Preece

       A fair few Tories celebrated EM’s election to the Labour leadership. As for “Ed’s brilliance” well… blessed are the easily pleased.

  • Suey2y

    A Cliche, I know, but in response to this and your article on turning the poll lead from soft to hard, “Oppositions don’t win elections, Government’s lose them.”

    Actually, there’s a tipping point where people decide the Tories are yucky and forget that they thought that about Labour not so long ago. Blair’s general awesomeness hid the fact that you could have pinned a red rosette on a sheep and won a landslide by 97. 

    You know that if we start policizing now, the Tories will have destroyed them by 2015. I’m afraid we’re just going to have to stay naked on the doorsteps a little longer til the emperor himself is seen to be more naked still ;)

    • Jeremy_Preece

       And that is a good strategy?

  • treborc

    Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has been mocked by Tories and members of other parties, after he and the vast majority of Labour MPs couldn’t be bothered to vote on a motion in the Commons on Monday night on a motion relating to the scrapping of the 50p tax rate.
    Speaking at the start of four days of Budget debate in the Commons last Thursday, Balls said: “There will be a vote next week, we will vote against the 50p. It’s the wrong tax cut at the wrong time.”
    But when SNP and Plaid Cymru MPs forced a surprise late-night vote on the proposed new income tax rates on Monday night, no more than a couple of Labour MPs were among the 22 registering their opposition.

    Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has been mocked by Tories and members of other parties, after he and the vast majority of Labour MPs couldn’t be bothered to vote on a motion in the Commons on Monday night on a motion relating to the scrapping of the 50p tax rate.

    Speaking at the start of four days of Budget debate in the Commons last Thursday, Balls said: “There will be a vote next week, we will vote against the 50p. It’s the wrong tax cut at the wrong time.”

    But when SNP and Plaid Cymru MPs forced a surprise late-night vote on the proposed new income tax rates on Monday night, no more than a couple of Labour MPs were among the 22 registering their opposition.

    God help us……

    • Jeremy_Preece

       If that is correct then it is appauling

      • John Ruddy

        Good job its not correct. 

        There is an official vote on this as part of the finance bill – and Labour will vote against. The SNP and Plaid deliberately sprung this vote when a majority of Labour MPs were absent…..

        • treborc

          Funny how they all seemed to be absent at the same time…..

          The SNP has claimed that Labour’s credibility is severely in question
          after the party abstained in a vote, forced by the SNP and Plaid Cymru,
          to oppose Tory plans to cut the top rate of tax for the highest
          earners. 

          Despite vocal opposition and several pledges from
          shadow chancellor Ed Balls (pictured) to vote against the measure, in an
          embarrassing no-show Labour MPs failed to vote against the measure in
          the Commons.

          Speaking at the start of four days of Budget debate in the Commons on
          Thursday last week, Mr Balls said: “There will be a vote next week, we
          will vote against the 50p [tax cut].  It’s the wrong tax cut at the
          wrong time.”However despite Mr Balls’ pledge, the vast majority
          of Labour MPs failed to show up for the vote against the tax cut.  The
          Coalition Government won the vote on the 45p rate by 319 to 22, giving
          them an overwhelming majority of 297.The realisation that Labour
          MPs had failed to vote against the cut in the top rate of tax prompted
          mockery from Treasury minister David Gauke and his Conservative
          colleague Andrew Bridgen.  Mr Bridgen asked Commons Speaker John Bercow
          if he had powers to “censure HM opposition who spent five days opposing
          the cut in the top rate of tax from 50p and then abstained from voting
          the lobbies”.A Treasury source described Labour’s no-show as “bizarre … given their rhetoric just a few days ago”.Deputy
          leader of the Liberal Democrats, Simon Hughes MP, said: “After five
          days of huff and puff from Ed Balls, and sustained protest about the
          proposal to lower the highest level of tax rate next year, Labour MPs
          were not in the chamber to vote against the change.  This says all the
          public need to know about Labour’s position.  A last-minute increase in
          the higher tax rate before the election and no real commitment to
          continue the 50p tax rate while they are in opposition shows how they
          value rhetoric more than action.”Mr Balls attempted to play down
          the embarrassing no-show on the Labour benches, saying that the party
          had earlier voted against the whole Budget package.  Responding to jibes
          on Twitter, Mr Balls said:  “No chance to vote solely on 50p tax.  Will
          ensure there is in Finance Bill and vote against.” Commenting
          on Labour’s failure to vote against the cut in the top rate of tax for
          the highest earners, SNP Westminster Treasury spokesperson Stewart Hosie
          MP said:”After claiming they opposed the Tories tax cut for
          millionaires, Labour’s credibility is now severely in question after
          this embarrassing no-show.”Since the Budget, Ed Balls has been
          in and out of television studios blustering about the Chancellor’s tax
          plans and promising to oppose them – but at the first opportunity to
          vote against this unfair Tory plan and Labour abstain.  Yet again Labour
          are letting the Tories off the hook.”While Labour capitulate,
          the SNP will oppose the Tories unfair Budget which punishes pensioners
          and public sector workers and does nothing to stimulate the economy.”This
          was not a budget for Scotland and is proof of the urgent need for
          Scotland to have control over financial powers with independence.”

           

  • Hugh

      “It still doesn’t alter the fact that Labour are ahead in the polls largely due to Ed’s brilliant leadership.”

    That brilliant leadership in full from the Yougov poll:  “Thinking about Labour leader Ed Miliband, which of the following qualities do you think he has?”

    In touch with the concerns of ordinary people: 24%
    Honest: 18%
    Sticks to what he believes in: 17%
    Decisive: 6%
    Strong: 6%
    Charismatic: 4%
    Good in a crisis: 4%
    A natural leader: 3%

    None of these/don’t know: 63%

    Would you like to rephrase?

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