It’s recession

25th April, 2012 9:38 am

It’s a double-dip… (GDP fell by 0.2%)

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  • trotters57

    Osborne’s a perfect combination of arrogance, incompetence and ideology.

  • Trudge74 as alexwilliamz

    If this is true, it is depressing news and extremely frustrating. Maybe now the rhetoric will have to change to reflect reality, including the fact that this gvt is not actually cutting the deficit either.

  • Plan A is up the creek. Austerity has failed. And this is just the beginning.

    • AlanGiles

      What a good job his dad still has the wallpaper factory. At least he won’t have to cope on JSA because I am sure they can find a job as a tea boy for him (unless Jeremy Hunt gets there first)

      • Mike Homfray

        So much for the lovers of coalition economic policy – wrong again

        • I think it was Steve Richards in the Independent, a week or two ago, who commented on the foolhardiness of Labour’s Tory faction hitching their wagon to policies that are about to fail and therefore become discredited.

          It seems the Blairites would rather have Labour go down with the Tories than develop a viable alternative to the mess we’re in.

          • AlanGiles

            Absolutely true, and yet if it all goes wrong and end in tears the Blairites will still blame all that goes wrong on “left wingers”, it is their default position

  • Brumanuensis

    I suspect the data will be revised up once March is included and we might get growth of 0.1 – 0.2%.

    This will still be utterly abysmal, but you can bet your bottom pound that the government will insist this vindicates them.

    • trotters57

      That’s irrelevant and not necessarily the case anyway.
      History shows that GDP revisions can go both ways although the Tories will no doubt spin it the way you suggest.
       The figures say we have a double dip, that’s it.

      • Brumanuensis

        Well the bulk of the figures cover Jan and Feb, when retail sales were weakest (+0.3 and – 0.8%). I think March retail will add on 0.1%, so -0.1% ultimately. What the rest comes out to, I’m not sure, but I think the PMI surveys might indicate an upward revision. We shall see.

        • trotters1957

          The ONS have been fiddling the figures by use of the GDP deflator.
          Basically they understate inflation so there appears to be growth when there isn’t! Magic!
          In 2008 the ONS deflator understated growth.

          I have worked for the ONS for short periods, it’s incompetent and deeply politicised.

          Google: GDP deflator

          • Brumanuensis

            I know what a GDP deflator is trotters, I studied economics at University. I can’t comment on your experience of the ONS.

  • Of course its true what do people expect? Cameron & Osborne have plunged this country back into recession. The austerity measures the’ve implemented are to fast and severe and people are hurting…and I mean hurting. And what’s more its going to get a damn sight worse. What i’d like to know is where is Clegg in all this? you hardly see him… does he know theres elextions next week??

    • Paulwol

      Are you the former policeman who’s putting his name to these God awful anti Boris flyers, one of which I’ve just received?  Thanks for the thought if it is you Brett.  Firstly I’m not your friend, secondly, I don’t care what you think and thirdly, what you have spurred me to do (apart from voting for Boris for the sheer hell of it) is to enquire of the electoral commission as to whether your ‘letter’ meets the guidelines for official political .

      What concerns me is that the mention of labour is so small that many people will not even see it and when coupled with the scrawly faked handwritten style of the note some people may not see it as the rather pathetic piece of electioneering it is.

      If you really care about the deficit and the cuts get your mate Ken to pay his taxes.

      If it’s not you then carry on.

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