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Boris and Ken – the final poll

May 3, 2012 9:47 am

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The Evening Standard have an election day poll from YouGov. On the face of it it’s a bad one for Livingstone – Boris leads 53% to 47% after 2nd preferences. However that’s only amongst those certain to vote.

There are three details buried in the Evening Boris Standard write up that suggest that the race isn’t quite over yet:

  • If all Labour voters who are certain to vote cast their vote for Livingstone, he’ll win 54% to 46%.
    • Obviously not all Labour voters are backing Ken, and many will already have voted by post – but there’s still a significant proportion of the vote still to be won.
  • The final paragraph of the Standard report says: “Among all respondents, the result was virtually a dead heat, with Mr Johnson a fraction over 50 per cent and Mr Livingstone a fraction under 50 per cent.”
    • 68% of Johnson’s supporters said they were certain to vote, but only 62% of Ken supporters are certain to vote.
And – Labour is predicted to pick up three seats on the London Assembly as the Tories lose three seats.

Turnout is key – and Labour have spent far more time and effort on the “Ground war” than the Tories. Despite that, I’m not expecting a high turnout – it could be lower than 2008. But turning out the Labour vote could still swing this race.

It’s in the hands of Labour activists now.

Related posts:

  1. Boris retains poll lead – but 78% believe he is Mayor for the rich
  2. Ken trails by 4 points in latest poll (but there are more concerning numbers below the top line)
  3. Boris is back in the lead – but what’s below the top line?
  4. Ken moves ahead in latest London poll
  5. A poll with holes?
  • Carl

    This election was lost the moment Ken was re-selected. There was no coming back from that.

  • Gracie Samuels

    If people want high fares, homelessness, poor transport, fewer police, poor education and a  poor NHS, social cleansing and a Murdoch loving habitual lying part time mayor for London then they will vote Boris, however, if they really want the best for their families and themselves, then they will vote for Ken, who despite his errors his default setting is Londoners first and who will work for their benefit.

    I can not understand why labour voting Londoners are even contemplating voting Boris, it’s their choice of course, however, it really does seem a case of cutting ones nose off to spite one’s face!

    • GuyM

      Ken does nothing for Londoners out in the suburbs, nothing at all other than tax us a lot more.

      Whoeer wins, the voting pattern out here indicates we are sick to death of being used by your party as a pot of money to raid whenever you have another dumb redistributional scheme.

      The best solution would be to make “London” only mean the inner boroughs, then you could all tax and spend yourselves to death.

      • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

        “whenever you have another dumb redistributional scheme.”

        Like when your money was redistributed to the banks and, more recently, was redistributed by Osborne to the IMF (£10bn*) in support of the euro currency project?

        You’d better put in some overtime because Osborne will be wanting to redistribute much more of your money very soon – how else can he finance the failure of predator capitalism?

        *http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17794990

  • Tony

    Won’t be long until you can start celebrating!

  • Tony

    Won’t be long until you can start celebrating!

  • WorkingMan

    Labour took us for granted. The powers that be thought they could ignore our worries about housing, low wages, immigration, unemployment and insecurity and that we would still continue to vote Labour because, as bad as Labour was the Conservatives would always be worse. This isn’t true any more and has been shown to be untrue under Miliband’s leadership by his speeches about welfare coupled with Liam Byrne’s unashamed loathing of benefit claimants, particularly the sick, and plans to become their scourge and hammer.

    So while we won’t be voting Conservative today we won’t vote Labour either.

    Because we won’t be voting at all.

  • John Dore

    ”
    However that’s only amongst those certain to vote. ”

    This tells it all, London Labour would rather stay at home than vote for a Hypocrite that would cost London. 

    As for it being in the hands of the activists, they will not make any difference.

  • john_zims

    If people want a tax dodging, divisive ,high tax ,fewer police, run down tube service vote for Livingstone.

    When is he going to publish the rest of his tax details and explain why he pays a lower marginal tax rate than a cleaner at City Hall? 

    • Dave Postles

       Is your rhetoric carrying you away?  How much tax do cleaners at City Hall pay?  Even on the living wage for London, do they have enough hours to be above the level of exemption from income tax?  If you are accurate, then I apologize, but In wonder …

      • Dave Postles

         I wonder (is what I meant)

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