You are here: Home » Comment »

Labour’s record poll lead

May 15, 2012 9:23 am

Author:

Tags:

Share this Article

Last night YouGov gave Labour a fourteen point (!) poll lead over the Tories (45/31) – the largest lead for Labour with the firm since it was founded ten years ago. If replicated in a general election, it would give a marginally better result than the 1997 landslide.

But let’s get real – this is a one off poll.

Indicative? Yes.

Positive? Undoubtedly.

But a word of caution is needed – back in 2008 the Tories once held a 26 point lead over Labour with YouGov. And as we all know they didn’t even win the subsequent election.

But there are two clear positives to consider here. Firstly, the media (even the hostile Murdoch-owned Sun) are spinning this poll lead as an Ed Miliband lead – suggesting Miliband’s leadership is not the polling weakness it once was.

Secondly (and more importantly) is that Labour has – for the first time since the election – taken a lead on being most trusted to handle the economy. Whilst the party still has a huge distance to travel to regain economic credibility, the Tories appear to be losing theirs remarkably quickly – as recently as January the Tories held a 12 point advantage over Labour in this regard.

Labour is also ahead on the crucial indicators around taxation and unemployment too – the abolition of the 50p rate couple with a failure to create jobs has really hurt the Tories.

That’s what we should really be focussing on from this poll. Three years from a likely election, we’re still miles away from forming the next government. The champagne isn’t on ice. In fact, it hasn’t even been bought from booze busters yet…

20120515-092131.jpg

Related posts:

  1. Poll List: Tory lead at 7 and lowest in ICM poll for two years
  2. Poll List: ICM has Tory lead at 8%
  3. Ceding ground on cuts sees Tories take poll lead
  4. Poll List: Tory lead widens to 9 points in new ICM poll
  5. This poll lead is soft – here’s how Labour can harden it
  • AlanGiles

    1003 BST Rebekah Brooks charged with conspiring to pervert the course of justice – hubby too.

    * Vic Dickenson (1904-1984)

    • treborc1

      No surprise really

    • Daniel Speight

       Yes!!! There is some fairness, or at least the CPS is scared not to be seen doing the right thing. I suspect at least part of this is putting the computer in the rubbish skip in their London apartment’s car park.

      • AlanGiles

        I’d love to be the trial judge – I wonder if it is too late for me to take silk? :-)

        * Frank Rehak (1926-1987)

        • geedee0520

           Fair trial anybody?

  • BenM_Kent

    Agreed.

    Labour’s reaction to the recent local elections was well pitched. 

    More of that over next 18 months or so will stand the Party in good stead to face the next General Election. 

  • AlanGiles

    Seriously, I hope Ed Miliband will take this poll into consideration when considering his reshuffle – a good reason to declutter in earnest – to send the useless old relics off to the jumble sale. What more encouragement does he need?. He who hesitates is lost and all that.

    * Dennis Rollins (1964-    )

    • treborc1

       Any bets the old relic master of the dark is back again, we are told Mandleson is speaking with Ed Balls on the new structure and debating a different type of deficit reduction. if he is then god knows were Welfare is going

  • Pjed440

    Absolutely spot on, we need to keep our feet firmly on the ground and talking to the voters on the doorstep arguing that an alternative is possible. We have a council by election in a solid Tory ward on 31 May, but response to Labour on the doorstep is positive.

  • aracataca

    Given that EM is going to be personally vilified and that there will be a tax bribe in the run up to the next election the current approval rating for the government remains too high (-42) to be confident that the situation will remain as it is for 3 years. We must therefore resist any kind of complacency. However, Cameron’s problems have been going on for more than 6 weeks now which suggests that this period is something slightly more serious than a mid-term blip. With the impact of  NHS privatisation and the Welfare Reform Bill due to register in 2013 alongside the prospect of an economy remaining in the doldrums over the coming period and an increasingly sneering Cameron in Parliament we do (IMHO) have some cause to be optimistic at last.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

    Yes – lets not count our chickens. But I think it confirms that Ed’s approach – slow burn, no panicking – is the right one

    • Peter MacDonald

      Perhaps – here’s hoping – so long as in there’s momentum – steady progress.   While recent Tory Tribulations seem like more than a “blip” there is still a long time to go until the next election (if the coalition lasts) and Governments have come from pretty appalling positions early in their midterm to win re-election. 

    • aracataca

      Yes Mike. These recent advances seem to have vindicated his strategy.

      • aracataca

        Perhaps  the most positive aspect of the party’s position at the moment (and utterly unlike other periods of opposition) is its unity. We have also witnessed the first discernible movement of ferrets in the Tory bag.

  • Peter MacDonald

    Far from even planning a trip to ‘booze busters’ I think the party needs to grasp this opportunity now.  People are listening – or are at least a tiny bit more likely to listen – to Labour again – and the party needs to have something to actually say!    Even I’m tired of “Too far too fast” and would be happy never to hear it again.  What no one is doing, which boggles my mind, is telling people “dealing with the deficit is NOT like dealing with household finances – the analogies with credit cards, maxing out the overdraft, etc, are ridiculous!”.  The party needs to keep hammering away at the Tories and showing them up for what they are.  Nadine Dorries has, in my mind, so far delivered the best publicity Labour could ask for – but we can’t depend on her to keep showing how out of touch Cameron is!   Don’t even think of champagne, folks – pour yourselves another cup of coffee and get back to work. 

    • Peter MacDonald

      Oh – and a prize to the first person to spot George Osborne blaming the Diamond Jubilee for poor growth in the second quarter.

  • postageincluded

    But also remember that 3 years before the 1979 election Thatcher and CAllaghan were pretty much neck and neck. Grim determination is not the only alternative to blind euphoria.

  • bustop

    Why the heck has Harman backed down over Hunt just because Leveson had a tantrum? Why are parliament allowing an unelected judge to walk all over them? It seems Leveson has decided he needs to interview Smith and Michel – WHY?   What does a specific, and potentially criminal breach within DCMS have to do with him?  Is he perverting the course of justice?  I have to suspect they are all in it together.

Latest

  • News Ed Miliband statement on Woolwich murder

    Ed Miliband statement on Woolwich murder

    In a statement this evening, Ed Miliband said: “This is a truly appalling murder which will shock the entire country. “All of my thoughts are with the family and friends of the victim. “The British people will be horrified by what has happened in Woolwich. They will be united in believing that this terror on our streets cannot be allowed to stand. “The Labour Party will offer the Government our complete support in establishing the facts of what happened and [...]

    Read more →
  • News Equal marriage – How every Labour MP voted at every stage of the bill

    Equal marriage – How every Labour MP voted at every stage of the bill

    By Kirstin Hay

    With much jubilation, the 3rd reading of the same-sex marriage bill passed the House of Commons last night, carried through on the weight of Labour votes, but how have individual MPs voted on this bill? In the 2nd reading of the equal marriage bill, Labour MP voting totals were: 217 – for 22 – against 14 – non-voters For the third reading 192 – for 14 – against 49 – non-voters —————————————————————- 192 Labour MPs who voted yes on 3rd reading (9 didn’t [...]

    Read more →
  • News Ed Miliband’s Google Speech – full text

    Ed Miliband’s Google Speech – full text

    Speaking at the Google Big Tent event Ed Miliband said (please note, Miliband spoke without notes, but this is the text released by the party): It is great to be here inside the Google Big Tent. My sons Daniel and Sam think I do a very boring job, so they will be excited when I tell them I appeared along with the “Killer Robots” and the “Captain of the Moonshots” at your sessions. I’d like to start by showing you [...]

    Read more →
  • Comment Unions The chutzpah of Peter Mandelson – and why we need more trade unionists

    The chutzpah of Peter Mandelson – and why we need more trade unionists

    By Mark Seddon

    Lord Mandelson, or Baron Mandelson of Foy, as he should be referred to since he was packed off to the House of Lords by a small cabal, recently accused the Unite union of ‘manipulating selection procedures’ in the Labour Party. He went on to warn Ed Miliband that this ‘stores up danger for a future Labour government’. Irony has always been in as short supply as sheer chutzpah has been plentiful with old Mandy – but since his faithful disciple [...]

    Read more →
  • News Cameron says no more EU-turns – Media roundup: May 22nd, 2013

    Cameron says no more EU-turns – Media roundup: May 22nd, 2013

    Subscribers to our morning email get the best of LabourList – including the Media and blog round up – every weekday morning. If you were a subscriber you would have already received this in your inbox. You can sign up here. Cameron says no more EU-turns “After one of his most difficult weeks since becoming prime minister, David Cameron put in a polished and assured peformance on the Today programme this morning. The most notable line came on Europe, with Cameron [...]

    Read more →