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Cameron’s popularity plummets with Tory supporters (but there’s bad news for Ed too)

July 18, 2012 2:58 pm

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Mark Ferguson

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The Ipsos-Mori political monitor is out today, so now is as good a time as any to compare how party leaders are faring compared to this time last year. One of the more interesting sets of figures is how party supporters think that their leaders are doing – and the figures make difficult reading for the Prime Minister, and Ed Miliband too. Let’s take a look at Cameron first:

Whilst in July 2011 Cameron had a +58 approval rating amongst Tory supporters, now it’s down to just +35. Presumably rows over Europe, Lords Reform and whether or not the PM is “out of touch” have alienated a substantial chunk of Tory supporters. This won’t help the rumblings of discontent on the Tory Right and on the backbenches. Of course the more people who turn against him, the worse his ratings are likely to get – it’s a vicious circle.

Now let’s look at Ed Miliband:

Whilst his slump is by no means as pronounced as Cameron’s, he started from a much lower base. Despite Cameron’s plummeting approval rating, Tory voters are still more likely to approve of Cameron than Labour supporters are to approve of Ed Miliband. That said, it should be remembered that last July Miliband was seeing a popularity boost in the wake of the News International affair. It’s also important to note that opposition leaders are also more likely to illicit a “Don’t know” response (13% of Labour voters are undecided on Miliband).

Despite being the least unpopular party leader overall (with a rating of -18 compared to Cameron’s -27 and Clegg’s -38), he still clearly has some way to go in convincing Labour supporters that he’s up to the job of Prime Minister.

The question is, is being the least unpopular overall enough, if your own supporters aren’t enthused?

Update: Incidentally, the leader who is more popular with his supporters according to Ipsos-Mori than he was a year ago? Nick Clegg – up from +6 to +13. Still the least popular – but the only leader moving up compared to 12 months ago.

http://www.youngfabians.org.uk/blog/ Louie

Is it possible that Labour party members still associate Miliband with the Brown camp, and too close to the old guard to symbolise the true renewal of the party brand?

The Tories were only able to de-toxify their brand after they almost totally cleared their front-bench of the personnel associated with the Major years. Will Labour have to do the same before it wins again? I wonder…
- Cari_esky5
  
  No because Ed Miliband just doesn’t have the umph to get people enthused with Labour.
  If the Tories had picked Ken Clark the story would have been a bit different whilst they were in opposition.
  - John Dore
    
    I disagree, Ed does have it, but with no policy announcements he’s fighting with an empty gun.
    - treborc
      
      hang on I will load it for him.
Steve

Elicit a reaction, not illicit a reaction. The latter is an illicit usage.
Godwinfan

Could be people are sick of Westminster politics and associate all things Westminster with the city, the press and the Met. And by the way all the parties are clinging on to the union they are all wedded to the BRITISH establishment. All of em in it together. Bastards.
Flu

Personally I’m not convinced by Miliband. He wrote most of the Labour manifesto “A Future Fair for All” and some of the policies outlined stank to high heaven. Anybody remember the wheeze about stripping teenage mothers of all rights to benefits unless they agreed to be sequestered communally in institutions called “Foyers” (copied from France) much like open prisons: obviously the money wasn’t there to build a “Foyer” in every town and so most of the girls affected would be forced to move miles away from their friends, families and support groups to the nearest “Foyer” to them isolating them with a penalty of absolute destitution if they didn’t “volunteer”. Not very human, humane, or Labour as far as I was concerned nor something I could, in good conscience, vote for.

Miliband seems entirely insubstantial as far as I can see.

Like a jellyfish he just takes up the colour of the water around him.
- Lucian
  
  Yea. And don’t forget that diabolically bad speech about Ed “meeting a man” who he though “could be doing something” rather than living on sickness benefits. Woeful stuff. Dire.
  - treborc
    
    You beat me to it, but it was not only that and like it or not it’s my opinion I’ve a feeling until Miliband gets rid of his speech writers and talks from his own ability I nearly said heart.
    
    But when I speak to my friends they say to me have you ever seen a worse group of politicians and I say what the Tories and they say no the whole lot of them, none of them are talking for me.
    
    We have had the hard squeezed middle class, then labour added on the hard working or lower class or lower paid they did it again this week.
    
    Even with labour we are not all in it together are we, the poor those on the lowest wages seem to be always an after thought an add on.
http://griyamobilkita.webs.com/ sewa mobil

Nice article, thanks for the information.
david

The reason why Nick Clegg is more popular with his supporters in 2012 than 2011 is because the supporters who weren’t happy with him in 2011 are no longer his supporters at all in 2012.
Alan Giles

I think this proves that Ed Miliband has to start defining once and for all what he believes in: does he want a genuinely new start with a new set of policies, or does he want to retreat back to the 1997-2007 comfort blanket.

Also – as Louie suggests in this thread – EM is still surrounded by of the ghastly old waxworks of those and the Brown years – is it a good idea to keep Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor? – is it a good idea to keep Liam Byrne, full stop?

There is an awful lot of dead wood in the shadow cabinet, and I would suggest that it is time for a full reshuffle.

With a new and refreshed shadow cabinet it could be that Ed’s fortunes will improve – but he has to stop following public opinion (or what he thinks is public opinion) and lead.
- John Dore
  
  Of course its a good idea to keep Byrne, his thinking isn’t deluded and in step with public opinion.
  
  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voters-will-reject-tax-rises-labour-think-tank-warns-ed-miliband-7953494.html
  - Alan Giles
    
    I know this is akin to spitting in church, but the Fabian Society is not infallible.
    
    As for Byrne, if you think a proven expenses swindler, who hypocritically decries mis-use of public money, is an asset to the party, when he remains one of the most unpopular shadow ministers, well in a couple of years time we will see if you are right.
    - John Dore
      
      He’s only unpopular with a certain group of people. The sort who may frequent an internet forum. The electorate is 40m, what number of those people take an interest in him? Would 400,000 people know him, 1%? I don’t think so, the general public do not know who Liam Byrne is.
      
      Moreover I prefer to believe the Fabians and Independent article over what you say.
      - derek
        
        Less and less people are voting, so your posts is nil and void of any statistical relevance.Byrne has consistently polled the least votes on this sites favoured MP’s comp.
      - John Dore
        
        Your post is tripe. I wasn’t stating any numbers as a statement of fact.
        
        ……. and you have consistently shown no ability to grasp basic financial or statistical concepts, do you remember when you confused the way the banks set Libor and the bank setting base rate? So please do yourself a favour and stick to deriding the Tories, at least you can do that.
      - derek
        
        Poppycock! you tried to advocate a single take tax on income for everyone! while on the banking issue I merely directed you to the fact that the BoE must have been aware of the irregular rate fixing of the cities finances.
      - John Dore
        
        Goodbye. I’m not talking to an …….
      - derek
        
        So long John! I guess the kitchen was too hot.
      - John Dore
        
        No… There’s no reasoning with an imbecile.
      - derek
        
        Really? so your using doctorate terminology now,how quaint! what a catalyst you turned out to be? loaded the gun then ran away.
      - John Dore
        
        A doctorate is an academic degree or professional degree that in most countries qualifies the holder to teach in a specific field.
        
        Imbecile was a medical term used to describe a person with moderate to severe mental retardation.
        
        QED you proved my point.
      - derek
        
        Jeez!youain’t af blowing some bubbles now.
      - treborc
        
        Now he manages people dream world… it is Guy
      - Alan Giles
        
        I know you must place great faith in the Indfependent article since this morning you have linked it to four of your posts.
        
        Agreed a lot of people don’t know who Byrne is, but, sadly for him, Labour supporters do. Some, on the right wing find no fault in his hypocrisy. Others will find him an unpalatable and irrelevant minister, who, lets face it is so “committed” to his job he would quite happily have been a candidate for the post of Mayor of Birmingham.
        
        I can assure you, if Byrne remains in the shadow cabinet he will do nothing to enhance the reputation of polics in general or Labour in particular – yet another example of a “do as I say not as I do” politician.
        
        Also of course, neither you nor Byrne can magic up jobs which don’t exist.
      - John Dore
        
        Really, I manage people and my pay is hinged on growth and I’m not in finance. I’ve done this job for 20 years.
        
        …and that leads us onto why I seriously dislike you. You are very vociferous but your opinions are diametrically opposed to creating the jobs we need. Sadly you’re so blinkered, you’ll cut your nose off to spite you face. Whilst that will make you happy, its misery for anyone who listens to you.
      - Alan Giles
        
        Yet another ad hominem Mr Dore. I recall you saying before you managed people – so have I, but unlike you, I did not have 4 people who I couldn’t manage at any one time as you once complained to us (or any time at all – it’s called leading by example – perhaps if you spent less time calling people “idiot” etc on LL you could manage better).
        
        I am not saying we shouldn’t create jobs, what I am doing is asking you, and others who talk like you, to tell me where those jobs ARE. And I mean where they are NOW not where they MIGHT be IF.
        
        Nothing would delight me more than to have full employment again, but this is 2012, not 1962, Britain and the world is a different place.
        
        Do you not understand that?
      - John Dore
        
        Suggest you Google Ad Hominem. Why would I waste my time explaining anything to you? That will only result in you frothing at the mouth shouting, not socialist, Blair, Byrne etc..
        
        You show no ability to discuss, only the need to sit on your perch and deride anything that isn’t your precious Wilson’esque view of the world. As for your last point, you have shown again and again an inability to comprehend or suggest anything to deal with the challenges of 2012 that we face. You are very good at talking about the good old days.
        
        Keep it up, I expect nothing else from you..
      - Alan Giles
        
        No work today “Mr Dore”? What about those 4 recalcitrant employees of yours?
        
        You seem to be like “Purple Booker” who thinks that we can conjure up jobs out of thin air.
        
        A great number of jobs have been lost in the public sector and the private sector are unable at the moment to completely fill the breach. Many jobs being created are part time or short term contracts. We now have more adult men in part time employment than ever before, for example. They don’t WANT to be part-timers but that is all there is.
        
        Your personal abuse is so deep-seated, you don’t seem to notice when you call people “idiuots” – even “imbeciles” this morning till common sense prevailed and your offensive remarks were deleted.
        
        You need to look at things as they are not hopw you or politicians would WISH them to be.
        
        You shouldn’t demonise the unemployed, because one day you might be amongst their number (especially if you can’t bring that quartet to heel)
      - John Dore
        
        Could medication help you?
      - Alan Giles
        
        Grow up Dore for Christs sake
      - John Dore
        
        Perhaps therapy?
      - Jism
        
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      - Robin
        
        “He’s only unpopular with a certain group of people.”
        
        Any idea of which individuals might appear be in complement of the set of people who dislike Liam Byrne? Any idea as per its cardinality?
      - Billsilver
        
        He’s only unpopular with like errrrrrrrrrrrr 60 million people in the UK who have never heard of him.
        Except for that very good joke – “we’ve spent all the money”?
    - treborc
      
      Come on we know why this hard working manager of people comes out with “Byrne” he knows you will respond.
      
      he must be a hoot with his staff
  - derek
    
    Then I suggest it’s a percentage of public opinion that will turn the undergraduate against the graduate.
  - Shaz French
    
    When asked if they want to pay more tax very few people will say that they want to without the alternatives properly spelled out, especially now when only about 12% of the Coalition cuts have actually been made. From April 2013 the full force of the 88% of remaining cuts will begin to be felt more and more by more and more people. When the effect of the cuts becomes patent people will change their minds. The men and women of this country have good hearts – as demonstrated by the generosity they show every time an appeal is made for help for the dispossessed – and I do not believe that they will continue to support a government which deliberately and joyfully puts so many of the innocent to the sword even if it means they have to pay more tax themselves to curb the slaughter.
- Hugh
  
  ”Ed Miliband has to start defining once and for all what he believes in”
  
  If he believed in anything at all with any strength surely we would know about it after two years.
  - Alan Giles
    
    I don’t think that is necessarily true, Hugh. I think one of the problems he has – well two, actually, is that he is afraid of upsetting the tabloid press, and to some extent he is still circumscribed by the more vociforious right-wingers in the PLP – and beyond, just look at the way Marchant upset himself the other day on LL because EM dared to attend and speak at the Durham Miners Gala. Sadly a lot of our right-wingers are like a group of frightend old women
    
    If I were him, I would stop trying to please – or appease – everybody, establish at least a few of my own ideas and beliefs, and have a reshuffle.
    
    A number of people remain in the Shadow Cabinet because to quote (who it was escapes me) he would rfather have them inside the tent spitting out rather than outside the tent spitting in – personally I would take the opposite viewpoint and dare the malcontents to try confrontation
    - treborc
      
      Now asked should people strike over the Olympics Miliband said no.
      
      Of course if your battling to have a bonus your bosses have got or your fighting to be less of a squeezed middle class, the Olympics is an ideal time to threaten to strike, it makes people think harder.
      
      So why Miliband had to come out again and offer his thoughts on Unions show that Miliband is so very very poor at politics.
      
      If I was after a pay rise or a better deal I would pick the period in which I would make the biggest affect, it does not mean I would go and do it, sadly Miliband has little real idea of life and how you live in the world.
      
      Posh bloke with a posh voice and little or no knowledge of the real world a problem a lot of politicians have on all sides.
    - Hugh
      
      ”he is afraid of upsetting the tabloid press”
      
      That’s news to me; I thought one of Ed’s key strengths was the courage he demonstrated in being unafraid to take on the power of the media.
      
      In fact, I think he isn’t courageous, but the bigger problem is that Ed – much like Gordon before him in fact – plainly came to the job without having any real idea or vision for what he wanted to do. Personally, I”ve got infinitely more respect for those like Rob Marchant, who, whether right or wrong, have some sense of what Britain needs and are unafraid to argue it.
      
      This isn’t about detailed policy that it would be foolish to lay out so long before an election, rather it’s about basic questions:
      
      - If we need to cut spending significantly (and frankly he’s bloody hazy on that), what areas can we do that in, and which must be protected?
      - What about the tax burden generally, not just on bankers – too high, too low, about right?
      - Is the benefits system too lax?
      - Does the EU have too much power and should we resist further integration?
      
      Basically, what are his priorities? Not liking bankers, red top tabloids that don’t support you, and businesses that are mean doesn’t really answer that question. I’d be a bit sceptical of the paucity of flagship policies and the never ending policy review at this stage anyway, but when the policy review seems to be a pre-requisite to determining what he actually stands for, one can’t help wondering what exactly Labour members were voting for when they elected him.
      - http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone
        
        “what exactly Labour members were voting for when they elected him.”
        
        Elementary, old chum – they were voting for the best candidate.
John Dore

Vote Ed Cameron is to politics, what Sunny Delight is to health drinks.
- derek
  
  Slavering Piccolo!
  - treborc
    
    So what is he now saying we should not vote Miliband, the bloke I think may well have a problem a lot of managers seem to have with poor staff they drink a lot, obviously he knows about sunny delight, a sunny delight down here is a lager with a whiskey in it.
Mike Homfray

Seems to me that anyone in the same position would be equally unpopular. It’s all part of the cynicism and malaise regarding politicians.
- treborc
  
  And I think we have celebrated out selves out, it’s been a busy year of watching the very richest enjoying themselves.
Mr 0a

I’m very surprised that Cameron is more popular with the Tory base than Ed is with the Labour base. Looking at the numbers it comes from more Tories saying “Satisfied” and more Labour supporters saying “Don’t know”.

One thing to note is that the question asked to Tory supporters is:

“Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as
Prime Minister?”

As compared to the one posed to Labour supporters:

“Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader
of the Labour Party?”

Slightly different evaluation of a party leader against a prime minister. However I’m still surprised as Ed is currently leading the polls and Cameron isn’t.

Did anyone else notice that the Lib Dem user base had the caveat “*Due to small base size please treat findings with caution” attached to it!
Amber Star

It’s been less than a year since the last Labour conference; the one at which Ed gave his ‘predatory capitalists’ speech. So much has happened in so little time… Labour has a steady lead in the polls, Ed has become much more convincing as a leader who can bring the Party together. His PMQs & media appearances have seen him transformed from a deeply serious, nit-picking nerd into somebody who attacks the Coalition with wit & verve. He appears to have most of the Labour team supporting him & the belief that 2015 will see Labour back in power is beginning to energise MPs & activists.

Does anybody think that he can work the same ‘magic’ on the public over the next year or two? I do. In a year or 18 months from now, we’ll be wondering why we wasted so much time worrying about it.
Daniel Speight

I think what’s missing in the public perception of Ed Miliband is any passion from him. I’m not sure that all the young bag carriers, spinners, hangers on and make-over artists can really supply that. Maybe Ed should ignore them every once and a while and come out spitting with rage on those things he feels matter. He has to stop being a PPE and become the leader Labour, and Britain, so badly needs.
- treborc
  
  That is what I’ve been saying for a while show your feeling get angry spit feathers as they say down here. he’s talking now and it’s like listening to a Posh bloke telling the yokels I’m on your side really, but are you hard working.
John Dore

An article from the Independent may shed some light on this. I don’t think its Miliband, but policy, when we have more policy it will change.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voters-will-reject-tax-rises-labour-think-tank-warns-ed-miliband-7953494.html
aracataca

ConHome’s Tim Montgomerie has leapt on this story. However, interestingly, most of the reaction from Tory supporters questioned how much Miliband’s personal lack of popularity would affect the Labour vote. One particular comment caught my eye.
‘I think that his [Miliband's] popularity is on a slow build and that is the reverse of the Cameron trend. And whatever his polling may be it will not stop Labour winning in 2015. Electorates tend to vote against more often than in favour. We have the disastrous situation of perhaps 1.5 to 2-million former Tories, like me, prepared to ‘vote against’ Cameron and the centre-left … ‘

Quite a perceptive comment – although quite how Cameron’s dog breakfast of a government – combining Thatchertie dogma with ludicrous levels of incompetence – could be described as ‘centre-left’ is anyone’s guess.
aracataca

Another important factor when considering Miliband’s image is the extent to which the Tory press have been on attack mode since he became leader. Frankly, it would have been the same whoever became leader. The Tories have a bit of a thing about Yvette Cooper, whom they privately admire and think of as a sort of Labour version of Thatcher, but even she would have got similar treatment (probably an attack based on her being ‘Mrs Balls’.)

However, the attacks would have been even worse if David Miliband had become leader. There was all sorts of stuff that the Tories were planning to throw at DM if he’d become leader – spurious accusations about his involvement in torture, calling him a war criminal, etc. How frustrating it must have been for them that Ed won instead – not least because trying to attack him on anything substantial was like trying to pin jelly to a wall. So they had to resort to the ‘stabbing his brother in the back’ stuff (David Miliband did not at any time object to his brother standing as a candidate) and the way he resembles Wallace. I don’t think the public, on the whole, are that bothered about either of those things.
John Dore

Alan,

This is quite simple. If you continue to flag my comments for review I will return the favour. You are a troll.
- Alan Giles
  
  You have absolutely no right to go around calling people “imbeciles” or “idiots”.
  
  You seem to have a problem keeping a civil tongue in your head, even when people try to argue politely with you.
  
  And for a man who did the “Alan Partridge” joke 30 times in just a few weeks, you should be very circumspect in making judgements on others
  
  You come over as a little playground bully – you claim I am a troll, what about some of you?
  - John Dore
    
    I absolutely do when dealing with any posters of the feathered kind, living in fruit bearing trees, or any other whack jobs on the Internet. At this juncture I’d like to say “Hi Tre-Bore, Hi Derek”
    
    Partridge your arrogance and mightier than thou attitude is manifested in your use of that button. Alan Partridge displays exactly the same personality disorder I see in you.
    - Alan Giles
      
      Childish, ignorant and stupid, Dore. “Imbecile” has a very specific meaning and it is a term that should not be used.
      
      You have no right to abuse other posters because they don’t agree with you.
      
      And of course “Partridge” reference 31……
      
      Please think carefully, after this rant, before your question anybody else’s mental capacity
      - treborc
        
        He’s an expert on things mental
      - John Dore
        
        A Partridge in a pear treborc! You two deserve each other!
      - treborc
        
        Is that your william
      - John Dore
        
        Suck yourself!
      - John Dore
        
        Sad little member of the AOI trying to discredit me. Is that you Derek? Sure feels like it.
      - treborc
        
        Nope no need married. try it
      - John Dore
        
        Suck yourself and tongue your testicles like the dog you are.
      - Alan Giles
        
        I take it you have been hitting the bottle again, Dore?
        
        Why not try having a lay down and come back when you have sobered up.
      - treborc
        
        Obviously mental health issues, I did not want to say it but this proves it.
      - Alan Giles
        
        I would just like to say that I was not responsible for Mr Dore’s comments this afternoon being deleted – on the contrary, abusive and repulisve as they were, it told you all you need to know about him.
        
        I plead guilty, however, to complaining about one this morning where he called a poster I have a great deal of respect for “an imbecile”, so he was right that time, but not this.
      - John Dore
        
        I was not responsible for the comments that you flagged and didn’t see them either. Click the profile.
        
        I do object, to your comment above, the poster in question who clearly hasn’t a clue, it must be so embarrassing for him. You having respect for an imbecile though is funny.
        
        But as he’s a member of your AOI club I can understand your defence of him.

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