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High speed or super fast – is it time to knock HS2 on the head?

July 6, 2012 2:30 pm

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Reflecting on Margaret Hodge’s comments about the expectations for HS2 helped coalesce a few thoughts.

Last week I had my first pitch on Skype and my third webinar.  For some that will indicate I’m a bit dated or a late adopter of technology; others may still be wondering what Skype or a webinar actually are.

While both were  a little weird at times and sometimes suffered technical hitches, both saved me time, perhaps half a day between them, and of course no travel cost (typically much higher than web costs). Given other participants were based in over 50 different locations across the UK the time and travel savings will have been sizeable.

Listening to and working with people engaged in the Knowledge Transfer Networks (KTNs), the Technology Strategy Board, and innovators personal transport, and wider sustainability you start to hear ideas, issues and emerging trends that will have a big impact on how we see connectivity in the future.

The number of young people who hold a driving licence is falling, down to under 40% compared to over 50% in the mid 1990′s;  while there are economic reasons there are also social media reasons, younger people are connecting and keeping in touch increasingly through the web.  Some car manufacturers think the trend significant enough to rethink how they will sell cars to the coming generation.

Some bigger multinationals already have robust video conferencing facilities, as do some government departments – I recall the DfEE link to Moorfoot,Sheffield. Even more interesting will be the rise of 3D printing which will allow people to produce things in their homes or at local ‘printing hubs’. Who’ll need the post and its road and rail infrastructure for widgets, parts and knick-knacks when you can download and print them at home?

So what does that mean?  Strategically it means decisions made by DfT (Department for Transport) will be becoming increasingly flawed, because they are considered in the context of moving things and people about, rather than connecting people, ideas, and places.  These matter within the UK and of course our connections with the world.

It might mean DfT needs re-purposing to include a proper awareness if not some responsibility for connectivity and high speed broadband.  That would deploy their talents in understanding flows of people and material and in infrastructure with our national need to have a massive integrated upgrade in our broadband capability.

If we did that how then would we view the trade-offs of benefit and cost for High Speed Two, if we expected many more people to use the web for meetings, for communication and connectivity without the need to be present in person – at the very least that would change any expectations or predications of demand for moving about  . . . . . And surely change the nature of at least some of the transport infrastructure we should build for a Britain fit for the 2030′s and beyond.

Of course the questions of connectivity apply globally as well as nationally, what would high speed broadband do for video conferencing with businesses in the BRICs.  At the very least it would change our expectations of future airport capacity.

It’s time to deliver super fast broadband, and leave HS2 in the sidings.

Related posts:

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  2. Railways for the many, not high speed rail for the few
  3. High speed rail will support one million jobs
  4. Reaching out: how high-speed rail will benefit our economies and our communities
  5. Proposal #10: Commit to building a national high-speed rail network
  • Paul Bigland

    This is a flawed analysis that misses some major points and fails to understand what Hs2 is all about, capacity on the UKs railways. You say young people aren’t driving but you forget to mention how they’re travelling instead – which is by train.

    Passenger numbers are growing year on year (6% this year alone), not falling – despite the internet, which has been with us for many years now.

    You’ve also completely failed to consider freight, which is also growing and predicted to increase dramatically as new ports are built.

    The importance of the internet is overstated (not for the first time either). Put simply, you cannot move the growing number of passengers or freight down a fibre-optic cable.

  • Nettle001

     Those who choose or are commercially forced to switch to using virtual meetings over the internet are lost as rail passengers. This sector of the industry is being permanently lost to new technology, as has been and still is happening today at Royal Mail.

    Royal Mail whose letter volume growth had for decades shown a strong link to GDP (adjusted for population) faced a similar level of threat when the internet brought access to websites and e-mails delivered at up to 1,000 times the speed of a letter – some for as little as 1/1,000th of the cost of a stamp.

    The HS2 business case projects rail passenger numbers to forever go up with GDP (as Royal Mail used to predict their letters would) and assumes (by ignoring the internet) that the very same internet that will have taken half of the Royal Mail’s letters in a decade, will have no effect at all on their rail passenger behaviour or numbers.

    It is just not credible that we build a £34 billion high speed rail network that is financially doomed from the start because of the DfT’s inability to comprehend how technology will affect rail passenger numbers. The DfT say it is ‘not their job’ to consider the internet. They have stated that the internet can be ignored over a 75 year project. Royal Mail would not agree.

  • Andwhynot

    The flaw in this thinking is that it undervalues real human interaction. I regularly participate in audio and video conferences. I embrace social media. But nothing beats real human to human contact. I fear that we are developing a generation of people who believe they need never leave the house and still have a wonderful and fulfilling life.
    I agree that we need super fast broadband across the country but as well as HS2 not instead of.
    The anti progress brigade, often calling themselves conservationists, will really be the death go this country.

  • Keith Barrow

    From a business point of view, there is still no substitute for a face-to-face meeting – IT has a long way to go before it can really compete with actually meeting people in person. As people have said below, if you lose the human element you lose a fundamental element of interaction that is often important in business meetings. Count the number of businesspeople on flights to destinations such as Frankfurt and you’ll see online meetings have a long, long way to go before they can realistically offer a viable alternative. Sure, technology will advance considerably by the time HS2 opens, but it won’t stop people wanting to meet each other.
    You also have to consider the impact of urbanisation on travel habits in the longer-term – in a rational development scenario, new housing (which this country needs a lot of) is likely to be high-density and oriented towards sustainable public transport use, in a way that developments of the last 40+ years have not been. So if rail becomes more accessible, more people will use it for short journeys.That means you need capacity on local rail networks to support better services, which means putting fast inter-city services (which devour capacity) onto dedicated lines. HS2 is as much about creating the breathing space for improvements to rail services locally (and for freight) as it is for inter-city journeys.

  • Bill Lockhart

    How will people buy the 3D printers and the chemicals needed for them to function without a distribution network? The physical mass of specialised raw materials which will need to be distributed to be turned into 3D-printed widgets is exactly the same as the mass of the widgets currently being distributed ready-made, plus some more for wastage. The costs in money and time mean that small-scale 3D printing will never- that’s never- achieve unit costs or energy efficiency which are anything like competitive with mass- production factories distributing their products via modern transport networks

    You haven’t really thought this through, have you?

  • drwilliams

    Ultra High Speed Broadband, starting in the North, is a far better and environmentally friendly use of valuable cash than the Victorian solution being pushed by Greening of yet another railway.

    Who benefits from HS2…even Phil Hammond called it ” a rich mans railway”

    Ultra High Speed broadband will connect ALL northern cities and towns (and their young people) with not only each other, but the whole world.

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