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A good day to bury bad news (and a coalition)

August 3, 2012 9:59 am

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Mark Ferguson

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You can say many things about our Prime Minister, but he’s not stupid. Nor is he completely without guile when it comes to managing the media.

Yesterday was Golden Thursday, today the highlight of the Olympics – the athletics – kicks off. As I noted earlier this week, no-one cares about politics at the moment.

So what better time to bury bad news – and a coalition?

Yesterday evening Cameron slipped his first bit of bad news under the wire. George Osborne will remain a Chancellor until at least the next election. The man who has done this to the economy will be encouraged to do more damage. The pyromaniac has run out of matches, so Dave hands him a flamethrower to finish the job. Awful news for everyone in the country with two exceptions. Osborne of course, who still has a career (for now), and Ed Balls, who would have been bereft without his favourite Tory chew toy.

Evidently noting that Osborne’s stay of execution had barely rippled the pond of the British consciousness (how could he compete with the thighs of the mighty Sir Hoy, the never say die spirit of Gemma Gibbons, and the furious exertion (and expulsion) of Pendleton?) Cameron took his chance to squeeze out another golden nugget of bad news. Lords reform, it seems, is dead.

What a huge surprise… I am shocked, SHOCKED, that the Tory Party aren’t that interested in removing entrenched priviledge and patronage from our legislature, despite their feeble protestations to the contrary.

Yet this is not just another bit of bad news parped out late at night to those few political obsessives who are still paying attention. This is a potential coalition killer. Just a few weeks ago Nick Clegg emailed his members saying:

“When we return in the autumn to vote on this again, we fully expect the Conservatives to deliver this crucial part of the Coalition deal – as we have delivered other Coalition policies.”

And now Cameron has canned it. After tuition fees, the shambolic budgets, control orders and NHS “reform” all made their way past Clegg and co, I had begun to believe that they’ll swallow anything. But surely not even this passive bunch will swallow this?

If the Lib Dems follow their AV humiliation with failure to reform the Lords, what will they have got out of this coalition exactly? Effectively nothing (unless they kill the boundary review). And even then, is that really an acheivement for 5 years in government, stopping one bit of legislation but losing out on your party’s raison d’etre – democratic reform?. Their press office might tartly argue that they are “running the country”, but it’s clear that the Tory Right (despite feeling powerless) actually have more control over the government’s agenda than the Lib Dems. And if the yellows don’t believe that now then they never will.

And when you factor in the fact that the Lib Dems might need to leave the government before the election to balance the books, then you have a very dangerous cocktail indeed. And David Cameron might just have picked the middle of the Olympics as the time to collapse the coalition government.

Hold on tight folks, the rest of 2012 is going to be a bumpy ride.

Leeden

It bothers me that nobody is interested in politics at the moment. Not even the BBC who even lead news programs with Olympic news, coming even before Kofi Anan and Syria yesterday. It is another problem that even with the Olympics you have a bloke from Britain admitting yesterday that he deliberatly crashed at the start of the race so that the team could start again. I know we are not the only ones to do it but this Olympics seems to be about big business and cheating, and it oooks as if a lot of London shops are losing business because we are told not to travel.

Perhaps Nick Clegg will walk away now, but could any party win an election if one happened this year?
- http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=620287541 Kevin Leonard
  
  Your claim that the BBC are not reporting on political matters is wrong in the assumption that that is a bad thing because for the last 24 months they have been nothing but the mouthpiece for this coalition condemnation of liars tax dodgers and fraudsters. The case of the NHS is one most prevalent but even over the last 72 hours they have been running a public bad private good campaign regarding Circle health which is one of the most disgusting companies ever to get their hands on public money. They did so with the backing of a majority of MPs who are in the boardrooms of health insurance companies and in the pockets of Bankers.
  - Just_Another_Voter
    
    “Liars tax dodgers and fraudsters” I’m sorry but that describes all parties. Labour are as bad as the Tories.
    
    Liars:              WMD, Referendum on the Lisbon treaty. tuition fees.
    Tax dodgers: Ed Miliband’s IHT, Chuka Umunna’s offshore shenanigans, various    non-dom Lords
    Fraudsters:    Four Labour MPs sent to prison, Margaret Moran currently playing
       the too ill to stand trial card.
    
    These are just a few examples. All parties are at it.
    - AnotherOldBoy
      
      You forgot to mention Mr Livingstone and his corporate tax affairs.
  - JoeDM
    
    The BBC has been consistent in its provision of an open door for any critic of the Government. Milibean and associated socialists are given prime time at every opportunity. Any Questions and Question Time panels and audiences are packed with trendy-lefties.
    
    It is time the BBC was privatised.
    - http://twitter.com/NewhamSue Newham Sue
      
      ’erm isn’t being critical the role of a broadcaster in a free society. Long may they continue doing so (even though it equally made them a thorn in the flesh of the last Labour govt).
http://twitter.com/Stub_Crouch Patrick

“A bumpy ride”. I hope so. Sadly though, I fear the LibDems will cave in to the lot claiming it to be some sort of victory in the process.
PeterBarnard

Some bad news that was completely unreported : in 2011/12, spending on health decreased by a real terms 2.3 per cent*. Given that the population probably increased by around 0.6%, that’s a real terms decrease per capita of almost 3%.

“I’ll cut the deficit, not the NHS.”

* Public Spending Statistics July 2012 ; HM Treasury ; page 39
- jaime taurosangastre candelas
  
  @ Peter B,
  
  spending on medical services (i.e. the NHS in common parlance) increased by £339 million in the year to which you refer. Spending on central functions in the DOH fell by £264 million, and on R&D fell by £96 million, so generating an apparent overall reduction.
  
  See Table 5.2 section 7 on page 53 of the document you refer to.
  
  This has the feeling of Cameron and Miliband shouting at each other at PMQs both claiming (and being correct), but actually talking about different things. The DOH budget is very largely made up of the NHS budget, but DOH does other things as well. It is those other things that have been cut.
  
  There is some anecdotal evidence (circulating in memos, not as far as I know publicly available) that a new form of estimating demand that was introduced a few years ago is bearing some fruit – resource allocation does seem more precise, but my view on that is not very wide-ranging – I only see local data. But it does seem to be going in the right direction on a national level. The net effect is to reduce the “margin of error”, which means lower reserves need to be held and more money can be used for real procedures instead of being held as “contingency”.
  - PeterBarnard
    
    Real terms, Jaime, real terms.
    
    Plus £339 million from the previous year, in an expenditure of around £118 billion, will without doubt equate to a real terms reduction. In addition, you would need around (plus) £700 million just to keep up with the population change.
    - jaime taurosangastre candelas
      
      Peter,
      
      you need also to factor in an almost unprecedented expiry of many drugs in 2009/10 (the year was noted for an unusually large number of such expiries), which resulted in an overall drop of 9 point something per cent in drug cost to the NHS in the year you refer to. For examples, Valtrex, Mepron, Prevacid, Topamax, Migranal, Imitrex, Lamictal, Keppra, Lipitor, Arimidex, Aricept… (I had to Google the list – it was a bumper year for the generic manufacturers, and I’m no pharmacologist). But there was quite a lot of talk about it. Of course, these events are predictable and budgets adjusted accordingly, even if there is a roughly one year lag in between a patent expiring and a generic replacement being licensed.
      
      I really don’t want to get into a “tussle” on this issue (mostly because I have great respect for the honesty and rigour with which you approach statistics, also because I don’t have a particular “angle”, but I would observe that the high level statistics often obscure all sorts of complexities. At a local level, I was able to get a 6.3% increase “in real terms” in my department’s budget for the year you mention – an inflation index increase, some additional funding for taking on some additional work from MAU (an internal transfer, if you like – MAU got the same sum deducted), and a 2% increase for hitting some “stretch” targets. We came in under budget by just under £100,000, and because it was less than £100,000, I was allowed to have a couple of extra training courses for the team.
      
      I suspect that these sorts of budgeting arrangements happen all over the country, not just in hospitals but in the DVLA, the Customs, Transport Department and so on. I would observe however that your high level statistics are not (in this case) indicative of what is happening at low levels or “cost centres” – it is much more varied.
      - PeterBarnard
        
        Thanks, Jaime – good points.
        
        I would have thought that HM Treasury would not have posted a hostage to political fortune in making the statement that “The real terms decrease in health spending was -2.3 per cent …. ” On the face of things, it seems a pretty damning admission
        
        It’s there (in the referenced document) in black and white, published by Mr Osborne’s department. It seems to me that some people in the Labour Party are either asleep at the wheel or on holiday.
      - jaime taurosangastre candelas
        
        Thank you Peter,
        
        of course there was a -2.3% decrease in the DoH out-turn (I don’t like the word outturn – it feels wrong), but as discussed above that’s not quite the same as the NHS budget, and then we mix in your suggested population increase, the real world inflators, and my suggested decreasing factors of cheaper drugs and better forecasting, and the whole thing becomes arguable anyway you wish!
        
        It is certain that Ed Miliband may truthfully make a claim at PMQs that “the Department of Health spending was 2.3% less”, but conveniently ignore such factors as the forecasting efficiencies allowing that, and the quite significant drop in the cost of drugs. Actually, you could do more real healthcare with better forecasting and cheaper drugs, even with a -2.3% cut, and what is more important, sticking to some clumsy budget or delivering better results under budget?
        
        It is also certain that David Cameron can claim that “ the NHS received more money in the year (cf Labour plans under Darling for a cut in absolute NHS budget), while slightly skating over whether it is a real terms increase or an increase in absolute numbers.
        
        No-one has mentioned population increase in those statements, another complicating factor.
        
        I recall about 3-4 months ago there was this stupid argument on PMQs about health figures, and both LL and the tories I read on the Torygraph accusing each other’s leader of being wrong, and the Channel 4 “Factcheck” programme also getting it wrong in a third dimension because it is written by a lazy journalist who only checks the claims made, not the reality happening. It is all laughable.
      - PeterBarnard
        
        I agree, Jaime – complicated.
        
        The output trend has been consistently upwards for 15+ years – Public Service Productivity – Healthcare refers – although inputs have exceeded outputs, fractionally.
        
        One quibble to wrap up – I’m sure that Labour, in one of its Budgets (either 2009 or 2010, I read it once but can’t find it now) said that the NHS Budget would be inflation-protected up to 2012/13, but was silent for the following years.
http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

You suggest Osborne is damaging the economy – but whether of not it is ‘damage’ may depend on what your interests are – as Ha-Joon Chang* surmised:

“… by pushing these policies against all evidence, our leaders are really telling us that they want to preserve – or even intensify, in areas like welfare policy – the economic system that has served them so well in the past three decades.”

Not so much the fool but the focused operative continuing the work of Thatcher, Major, Blair and Brown.

*http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/04/austerity-policy-eurozone-crisis
BlackTriangleCampaign

Nothing about Channel Four Dispatches and Panorama on Monday evening showing Grayling to be a complete liar and the DWP/AtoS Work Capability Assessments administration to be akin to a fascist ‘selection’ procedure? Or is that just too uncomfortable for ‘Labour’ to face up to?

It’s time for Labour to stand up for what’s right and repudiate this barbaric assessment régime with immediate effect!

Dear Mr. Miliband,

I am a UK-based journalist and broadcaster. Here is a link to my website. http://www.soniapoulton.co.uk.

On my site you will find all the media outlets that I contribute to across print, TV, radio and internet, nationally and internationally.

I am prompted to write to you having just watched these two programmes on the subject of ‘fit to work’ testing for sick and disabled people: Channel 4′s Dispatches (‘Britain On The Sick’) and BBC2′s Panorama (‘Disabled or Faking it’).
This year, as a writer, I have been made painfully aware of how distressing, unreliable and costly – both physically and emotionally – the Work Capability Assessment is for those undertaking it.
The financial cost to the country is another concern altogether.
I am aware that Employment minister Chris Grayling has made much capital from blaming Labour for the introduction of this system, administered by ATOS. Equally, Mr. Grayling has made it clear that he views the Coalition’s implementation of the process as preferable, and less harsh, than that carried out under the Labour government.
WCA, clearly, is beset with problems. The ATOS assessor, captured undercover in C4′s programme, referred to it as ‘Toxic’. It was made clear that it was designed to reduce benefit recipients. Chris Grayling continues to deny there are targets. I am less inclined to believe him.
The test, at best, is unquestionably inadequate and not fit-for-purpose. Even the Government’s own adviser, before he resigned, described it as ‘patchy’. At worst, it is downright disadvantageous to those who are subject to it.
For many people the horror of the ATOS test has been the worst kept secret for years. Sadly, others have been less fortunate and are no longer here to register their misery. There currently exists a known demographic of people who have died after being found ‘fit to work’. Are you aware of this?
This year doctors at the British Medical Association have opposed WCA. Those who endure it have opposed it. Even the occasional newspaper and TV programme dares to oppose it. As a Social Commentator, I certainly have.
Why, then, has Labour – under your leadership – not opposed it? Should I assume that you support it?
I am disturbed by what I view as a dangerous trend in our country. There is a clear demonisation of sick and disabled people, routinely labelled as ‘scroungers’ by the media, and driven by frequently skewed statistics issued by the DWP.
Meanwhile, the incidences of attacks on sick and disabled has risen. Disabled people are more in fear for their safety than at any other time in recent history. I believe that there is a direct correlation between the resentment whipped up about ‘spongers’ and the physical assaults taking place.
Surely this is not acceptable to you. It certainly isn’t acceptable to me.
The names listed below this letter are from people who support the core message contained within it. Like me these are concerned citizens. Some are directly affected by issues of sickness and disability, others are not.
For my part, I am healthy, able-bodied and work full-time but I believe it is my duty to support those who need help. I believe that is a duty of us all. Including the Labour party.
Sickness and disability can happen at any time and to any one of us. I would like to think that others would also support me in my hour of need.
I believe what we need in this country is more compassion, not less. The WCA is unacceptable for a progressive country and it is a clear failure. The money spent on the appeals process confirms that, quite aside from the human misery it costs.
I have just heard that Tom Greatrex, MP, has secured a Westminster Hall debate on September 4 with regard ATOS and WCA. I ask you, Mr. Miliband, can we count on you to take a long overdue stance in support of our sick and disabled?
I do hope so. I look forward to your response.
Best wishes,
Sonia Poulton

https://www.facebook.com/notes/margo-milne/sonia-poultons-letter-to-ed-milliband/10150941223062371
- Alan Giles
  
  Sonia, I agree with you. I think it has to be admitted that Labour cannot say too much about the welfare reforms because all the coalition is doing is what Labour started in 2009 by adopting the crackpot suggestions of the dilitante David Freud.
  
  Nothing will change while Liam Burne remains the shadow minister – who has said in terms he approves of “three quarters” of the Duncan-Smith/Grayling measures.
  
  Sadly, you only have to show some sympathy for the sick unemployed and disabled and you not only get petulant right wing Conservatives crawling out of the woldwork on LL to denounce you as “hard left” or “Commie”, but some hysterical right wing Labour supporters as well saying the same thing – most notably John Dore, and the absurd “Purple Booker”. I really give in – but Labour cannot be credible on welfare and support for the vulnerable till they stop trying to be as “tough” as the Tories.
Bill Lockhart

”What
a huge surprise… I am shocked, SHOCKED, that the Tory Party aren’t that
interested in removing entrenched priviledge and patronage from our
legislature, despite their feeble protestations to the contrary.”

Your witty sarcasm would be even more devastating if you could spell the word “privilege” correctly.
- Ted
  
  I bet you’re a compulsive picture straightener too aren’t you Billy-boy?
AnotherOldBoy

Thanks for reminding me of the appalling behaviour of the last Labour government when they used 9/11 to “bury bad news”.

The Olympics last over 2 weeks. Some things are bound to happen and be announced during that period. The Olympics do not involve the loss of thousands of innocent lives. People will notice if Lords reform au Clegg is shelved (as it should be – his proposals are appalling) as they will if Mr Osborne continues to be Chancellor of the Exchequer. There is no question of “burying” either piece of news.

To compare the news items to which you refer to the actions of Mr Byers 11 years ago is rather pathetic.
Libera Me

The Liberal Democrats would argue their case as follows: If we had not formed a coalition with the Conservatives it is very probable that after trying to govern with no majority they might have called another general election, won a majority and done even more disastrous and wicked things than they have because the Lib Dems have acted as a brake and stopped Cameron and Co., from doing some really terrible things. (For example cutting 10% from the Housing Benefit of anybody unemployed for over one year, no matter how hard they have tried to get back into work, which WAS blocked by Clegg.) As bad as things are, the Lib Dems would say, it is as nothing compared to what the Tories would have done with a majority.

Nick Clegg is more like Oskar Schindler than Philippe Pétain the Lib Dems would say.

Maybe they’re right.
- ClearBell
  
  How about joining a coalition with Labour???
  - Libera Me
    
    The Liberal Democrat leadership would have to fall on their own swords first. I can’t see them doing that. Not for the sake of the nation, their party, or even their loved ones and children.
    - treborc
      
      few in labour that needs stabbing as well.
000a000

Bad news? This pointless lords “reform” bill which is nothing of the sort that would create the nightmare of commons style elections but for 15 year terms?

Far from burying this news Cameron would love to shout it from the rooftops, it’s only Clegg that stops his doing that.
PenWalters

Anyone for an Olympic bounce to seal a Tory majority at an earley General Election? How many non-held but target seats have the Tories selected candidates for already? Enough for a majority?
ClearBell

AtoS has just been awarded £400m of contracts for making more lives abject misery (see Guardian p.11). Presumably they are doing exactly what Grayling and Co (and some in old New Labour) want.

Remind me exactly how is money being saved – look like they’ve worked out exactly how to suck money up that should be going to those who need it.
http://www.themoronmormon.com/ TheMoronMormon

ATTENTION
U.K TAX PAYERS >>>> Tear Yourself Away From The
Synchronized Water Hurdles & Horse Dancing & Remember You Are
Now A Third Way Of The Way Through The £9bn Olympics!!
- Lee Matthews
  
  Does that mean we’re now intothe 6 billion overspend?
http://twitter.com/NewhamSue Newham Sue

As Osborne’s been focus of so much public mirth and ire seems amazing Cameron would stand by him. Possibly a good thing for Labour, though hell for folk like us who have to suffer his policies.

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