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Cameron’s downward spiral (or how Dave began to look like Gordon)

August 6, 2012 9:21 am

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By Mark Ferguson and Marcus Roberts

A dangerous germ of an idea is now in the Tory body politic – and it will grow fast. Last week Benedict Brogan gave voice to it. The idea is that the Tories have lost the next election and Tory minds are now shifting to what that means in terms of donors, leadership, policy and, of course, ideological purity.

What’s striking about this contagion is its source of origin: Westminster. This is evident in the government’s difficulties of maintaining discipline amongst Conservative backbenchers who often feel they have little chance of promotion thanks to their gender (male) and party (not LibDem) – meaning there’s little joy is to be found beyond the government payroll vote.

This malaise is in turn mirrored by the grassroots of the Tory Party. As the barometer of Tory true blue thinking that is the grassroots survey of ConHome readers has revealed 53% of Tories sampled now expect to see Labour back in power either solo or in coalition with the LibDems come 2015.

Interestingly, the one place that this malaise does not seem to have taken hold fully is at ConHome itself where their ‘Majority Conservatism’ (the evil twin of the Fabians’ own ‘Labour’s Next Majority’) is constructively and creatively contributing ideas in terms of message, manifesto and machine which pose a far greater threat to Labour’s own hopes then the dangerous meditations on defeat that the Tory’s high priests now serve up to their rank and file through the medium of ‘all is lost’ briefings and Boris-mania.

The electorate does not reward divided parties. Doubling down on discipline and exhibiting confidence in your leadership isn’t a fashion of politics – it’s essential. Right now it seems like there’s more commitment to the idea of a Tory victory outwith Westminster then within it. If that idea takes hold of the Party writ large it will be nigh on impossible to break and come summer 2013 the Tories will likely find themselves in a death spiral of non-confidence of their own design.

Of course we know exactly how this ends. Post 2005, and especially post 2007, a huge chunk of labour MPs seemed to believe that the party had rode its luck long enough and the next election was lost. After “the election that wasn’t” the number of PLP members who thought salvation (or a less crippling defeat) would come by replacing Brown with someone (anyone) began to hobble the government. A self fulfilling prophecy. The media picked up on it. It was amplified and reinforced. Soon itt was conventional wisdom, and the 2010 election was lost before it was even begun, with Labour the political equivalent of cricketers walking onto the pitch with smashed bats.

Cameron’s position today is now beginning to echo brown’s in 2007. That’s unsurprising – after all neither of them have won a general election. The extent of Cameron’s weakness is reinforced by his willingness to promote rebels whilst junking Lords Reform. He is in hock to his backbenchers. He seems to believe himself that he is doomed. And so he does all he can do to save himself.
Appease the backbenchers. Throw some red meat to the critics. Cling on. And hope for the best.

Gordon Brown and the Labour Party (or John Major and the Tory Party for that matter) can tell him exactly how that ends. It won’t work. It never works. Especially now that the one reason to vote with the government even when you vehemently disagree – preferment and promotion – no longer applies in the Tory Party of 2012. Vote against the government – get promoted. Vote with the government – get promoted. It’s all the same really, except the former means you’re more of a threat – and worth taking seriously. Expect more rebellions in future. Bigger rebellions. Perhaps even vote of no confidence territory rebellions.

So whilst Cameron may – for now – continue to wear the crown, in the land of the coalition the rebel is king. And how long do you think they’ll continue to let him wear it? That depends on how fast that dangerous germ of an idea continues to grow.

Mark Ferguson is the Editor of LabourList. Marcus Roberts is the Deputy General Secretary of the Fabian Society, and writes here in a personal capacity.

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  • Amber Star

    Newsflash:
    Corby By-election in November.
    Louise Mensch has resigned to spend more time with her family in New York.
    Seat for Boris?

    The rats are deserting Cameron’s sinking ship.

    • aracataca

      Re: Mensch.
      Our nation mourns the loss of a colossal intellect and a woman who has shown an almost limitless self effacing devotion and concern for the welfare and concerns of others. A true giant of a woman.

      • treborc1

         So true glad you can see this, but I wonder would this be a seat for our dearly beloved Tony

        • aracataca

          What Corby Treborc? You been on the LSD again?

          • treborc

            Well have you still got nappy rash rash William, I know it can be painful

    • treborc1

      Well done to her for thinking beyond politics, after all she has another job as an author, her  husband lives in New York she is now moving.

      Brown finds it hard to travel from Scotland to London so from London to New York is a lot longer.

      I did not like her much, but she was more Tory then Cameron and his gang, of new labour, Blair look alike’s.

      As for the rest we will see how the public perceive both the Tories and Newer Labour, by how many bother to vote.

      • Amber Star

        Actually it is as easy to get to New York from London as it is to get to Glenrothes! I’m not entirely joking. I’ve done both trips several times because I work for a US company which has a factory in Glenrothes.

        • treborc1

           Interesting then why Brown is not in work.

          • Hugh

            He is “in work” – as a well-paid MP; he’s just not really “at work” much. That the two don’t have to go together is the best answer to any who are foolish enough to claim MPs aren’t paid enough.

          • Amber Star

            Brown’s constituents seem to like him, though. All the folks at the Glenrothes factory speak very highly of him. Maybe he spends too much time on his constituents & not enough time posing around in Westminster.

          • Hugh

             That must be it. He’s always shunned the limelight.

          • treborc

             Except of course we have to accept his new book on how to stop a banking crises should be interesting.

            And his money for charity we are told comes from his books, and his long distance speaking engagements.

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            All former PM’s who stay in Parliament – other than Heath – traditionally stay out of the limelight and don’t make it difficult for their successors

            Many who respect parliament thought that Blair’s action in immediately going and making himself a pile of money showed his contempt for parliament itself

          • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

             QFT

  • Amber Star
  • Amber Star

    Labour apparently already has a candidate for Corby, Andy Sawyer. I wonder if he will be competing with Boris Johnson. Or will Boris bottle out? This could be very interesting!

    • treborc1

      Boris or Blair both seem interested in getting back into politics, but I doubt it’s safe enough for either.

      I’ve not been interested enough to look at Mr sawyer, it does say something that a pretty safe seat for labour was lost to this  Tory.

      • aracataca

        Phil Hope was the candidate last time. Make sure you get the right person before slinging the acrimony about.

        • treborc

           William I will google nappy problems for you.

          • http://twitter.com/kb32904 KathyB

            Sommeone ought to take you two outside & bang your heads together.

            Honestly, it’s like having 2 toddlers squabbling over who is going to sit on the swing first !

            Please grow up.

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            Also, its a marginal seat – and the majority is still only 1300 because the previous MP was regarded as a good one

    • aracataca

      It looks like a dead cert for us whoever stands. Labour is a traditional labour seat and has been since thousands of Scottish steel workers came down to the town during the last century to work in the steel works.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZPXYLRVP4XOIGGDJWAL6HUO7U4 David

      I would confidently state that there is a 0.00% chance Boris would resign London in the middle of the Olympics to fight for a marginal seat in Northamptonshire just to capitalise on a few days’ worth of vaguely positive headlines.

      • Amber Star

        Why would Boris have to resign as Mayor? He could be an MP & Mayor; hasn’t that been done before?

        • Hugh

           Yes, by Ken, a while before he criticised Boris for having two jobs.

          • Amber Star

            LOL, of course Boris is already pretending to do at least two jobs.

            He writes for the Telegraph; it is like the scribbles of a 15 year old school boy. And he treats being Mayor as a personal PR opportunity rather than a serious job of work.

            Ken did seem to be standing in a glass house & throwing stones once or twice during the campaign!

          • Hugh

            “Ken did seem to be standing in a glass house & throwing stones once or twice during the campaign!”

            You think?

            In what sense is Boris’s writing is quite like the scribbles of a 15 year old boy?  His frame of reference, obvious education and couple of decades experience as a writer and editor sort of belie that. As does the fact that he’s paid a quarter of a million to write it for the country’s best selling broadsheet.

            In general for columnists who don’t seem to be far beyond puberty you are better off looking to the Independent, Guardian or New Statesman, I think.

          • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

            I loathe Johnson but there seems little doubt that he could have easily made a living outside Parliament as a writer.

            And it takes real skill for a 40-something man to write and behave as a perpetually overexcited 15-year old boy all of the time.

        • DanFilson

          Boris took an age to resign as MP for Henley after being elected as Mayor of London. He would not blush at being MP for Corby whilst hanging on as Mayor! If he got the chance!

  • RCB

    Treborc is completely wrong. There are two halves of this seat. Corby and East Northamptonshire. Hence the constituency name! 

    Corby is traditionally Labour and East Northants Tory. Not difficult to see this is classic marginal where differential turnout matters. It was Tory held from 1983-1997 and Lab from 1997-2010. It will be a tough election. 

  • Mickelmas

    So, the truth at last. It was the back-stabbing actions of a particularly pernicious cabal within the PLP that lost us the 2010 election (and NOT Gordon Brown).

  • LesThompson

    I find it quite insulting to hear Gordon brown belittlement by even suggesting that the Tory canoren is even in the same league as Gordon brown when he left power he when living this country on a growth clime that was just bitch by this rot-on corrupt government we now sit in a Tory mad rescission and now they are spending money to try and pull them selves out  the Very thing that they ridicule labour for doing  having cut the working man to the bone they relies it the working man that pays his tax  as the will  the rich hoard the cash now Gordon had is fault’s but it a bit  ingenues to suggest that Comoran is any-thin like him blear may- be as Comoran emulates this image as the PM that cast aside the people’s value’s to pause is Owen a-gender yes blear my-be butt not fit to lick Gordon browns boot’s mark pay homage to this man and be respect full ..les       “NOT FIT TO LICK HIS BOOT’S “

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