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Labour are the bookies favourites to take back Corby from the Tories

August 6, 2012 8:00 pm

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With Louise Mensch resigning less than half way through the parliamentary term, and Labour’s candidate Andy Swaford already in place to fight the campaign, it’s perhaps unsurprising to hear that the bookies have installed Labour as the early favourites for the by-election (likely to be held on November 15th).

Yet just how big favourites Labour are might surprise some – after all, the seat is currently Tory held, and the party will be stretched across 3 by-elections, a mayoral election and 40+ PPC elections on the same day.

The odds according to Ladbrokes are:

Labour –  1/8
Conservative –  4/1
UKIP –  33/1
Liberal Democrats –  50/1

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  2. “This will be a tough election for Labour”, says Corby PPC
  3. As Louise Mensch resigns – Introducing Labour’s candidate for Corby
  4. Poll List: ICM show Tories back up to 40%
  5. Tories lining up safe Surrey seat for Boris?
  • Brumanuensis

    The Bookies were predicting a Conservative overall majority on election night.

    I’m not trusting anything from them.

    • PeterBarnard

      Bookies don’t predict, Brumanuensis …

      The odds that bookmakers offer reflect the money that is being placed with them and it’s actually the betting public who are doing the “predicting.” A bookmaker always aims for a balanced book, so that whatever runner wins, he (she) will not lose. He (she) is a passive and neutral recipient of the public’s cash.

      The opening odds may reflect the bookmaker’s initial estimates of the chances of any particular runner winning, but just before the off, it is definitely the public who are doing the predicting.

      At the odds shown above, Ladbrokes would take in £113 for every £100 paid out ; in percentage terms, and after removal of the turn, the percentages are :

      Labour : 78%
      Conservative : 17%
      UKIP : 3%
      LD : 2%

      • Brumanuensis

        Fair enough Peter. I’m still not reassured though, unless all the betting is coming from inhabitants of Corby.

  • Jeremy_Preece

    It is interesting but not really important what the bookies think. I hope that Labour does not fall into the trap of thinking that we have any result “in the bag”.
    You can be sure that the Tories will apply their maximum resources to get every vote they can. There can always also be nasty surprises such as the Respect fiasco.

    What matters is what the electrote think, and it is even more important whether the electorate care enough to turn out and cast their vote!

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