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Lib Dems Shouldn’t Ditch Clegg (Yet)

August 23, 2012 2:35 pm

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Life isn’t easy for the Lib Dems at the moment. There are few indications it’s going to get easier any time soon. For two years in a row, their councillors have taken a battering sometimes even losing to people dressed as penguins. Where once their by-election tales were of derring-do and shock wins, now they are of lost deposits and placing below fringe parties. They’re in a nose dive and they need a way out. The obvious place to start would be to ditch their leader.

That Clegg has to go is quite obvious. His is a broken brand that no amount of tinkering is going to fix. All Labour would have to do to beat them in every Labour/Lib Dem marginal in the country is show the first 20 seconds of the Lib Dems 2010 election broadcast on a loop. Approximately half of Lib Dems polled agreed that Clegg should not fight the next election. That number is only going to get higher. But it would be a very foolish move to do this too early.

The Coalition is at a difficult stage. They aren’t getting on and they have had their first really public bust up with the tit-for-tat over Lords reform and boundary changes. The Rose Garden love-in has become a bed of thorns for both parties. But they know that they can’t face the electorate now and are stuck with each other until 2015.

Both parties are praying for an economic miracle to inject some hope into a battered electorate before they are forced to go to the polls. But it seems praying is as far as they are willing to go, as neither party is willing to put their best players into the Treasury. While the Tories retain the clueless Osborne and the Lib Dems rely on the spineless and out of his depth Alexander miracles are all any of us can hope for.

It’s just possible that Alexander will get reshuffled out of the Treasury in favour of David Laws. I can’t see him getting reshuffled for anyone else. Osborne must be delighted with his support for Plan AAAARH, and Cameron is too weak to move Osborne. They have to have someone in the number 2 Treasury slot who will support and can work with not against Osborne. David Laws is the darling of the Tory Party and just as likely as Alexander to support Osborne. Either way, it will be up to Osborne – a man mules call stubborn – to change direction to shore up the economy. Keep praying guys.

So unless Gabrielle was right, and Dreams Can Come True the economy isn’t going to turn around quickly. Even if it did, the indicators that the public really feel and might act upon will lag significantly behind any improvement. So we are definitely looking at a full term government. David Cameron knows it – that’s why the Lib Dem poll has worried him.

It can’t be nice being a Lib Dem right now. Nor can it be nice being Nick Clegg and knowing you are a dead man walking. But what is worse, is that Lib Dem strategists have to know they need to allow it to get worse before it can get better.

The Lib Dems also know they can’t break the coalition this early in the Parliamentary cycle. For over two years they have been making heavy weather of the importance of staying the course and proving they are grown up enough to take the rough with the smooth. They know that to leave early would be depicted by every Tory (and Labour) supporting newspaper, commentator and blog as immature flouncing. They are as stuck with the Tories as Cameron is with Osborne.

Because they know they are being stuck in a Government they aren’t especially enjoying, they also know that if they replace Clegg now, they will leave any new leader too tainted by the compromises of Government for too long. Clegg will have to stick it out which is a rotten place to be. One would almost feel sorry for him. Almost.

My prediction is that the Lib Dems will have yet another shocking round of local (and European) election results in 2014. This will give them the excuse they need to rid themselves of Clegg at the right time. Setting in motion a leadership contest that will define where the Lib Dems will fight the election from.

If they have a proper fight between their two wings, the result will make it obvious which way they will lean at the next election, giving their electorate a clearer choice with a better understanding of how the Lib Dems would behave during any potential coalition negotiations. The electorate already have a clearer understanding of how the Lib Dems would behave in Government (this tragically for them cannot be assuages simply through new leadership).

A new leader, elected in time for their conference, will give them the ability to break from the Coalition by Christmas, in plenty of time to fight a May 2015 election on a new platform. It won’t be a complete panacea. It won’t save their most marginal seats. But it might mean the losses are recoverable from not fatal. If their strategists are wise, if they are able to look beyond immediate tactics to their long term interest, they will know this is the best they can hope for.

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  • coalitionkid

    Any news of Labour’s alternative budget yet. Without that it’s all about personalities – or are we supposed to just believe `Labour would be better` on trust and blind faith because the history of that ain’t pretty.

    • http://twitter.com/renieanjeh Renie Anjeh

      We’re in Opposition, we don’t need to do one. You are in Government not us. Anyway, what about ‘We’re all in this together’ or ‘Britain is now a safe haven’. Get some credibility and then come back to us.

  • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

    Personally I very much want Clegg to stay right up until election night when we can all be made deliriously happy by him and all but a 1960s sized rump of his colleagues capable of holding their next parliamentary party meeting in the back of a taxi losing their seats.

    But dumping Clegg sooner than later could end the coalition earlier and bring that election closer as a new LD leader (who lets face it would be Cable if he wants it – which given how poisoned a chalice it now is by no means certain) would be forced to assert himself in cabinet and to positively create situations where they are standing up to and foiling those few  Tory plans that have not already been implemented.

    And Flashman and his fellow Bullingdon Clubbers won’t put up with such cheek from their fags for a single minute. 

    So that and not the dubious satisfaction of seeing the Lib Dems utterly destroyed in 2015 only to inherit a society and economy to which they have laid irredeemable waste is what we really need.

    Plus if Clegg does make it through 2013 it is almost impossible to imagine him not doing a deal with Cameron on boundaries and on political funding which will be the worst possible outcome for Labour (and the longer they carry on trailing us with no hope of economic recovery the more likely that becomes as desperate men will resort to truly desperate measures) while for a Cable or Hughes this is precisely the sort of issue of principle they would have to take a stand on.

    So while I don’t believe that the Lib Dems will regrow even the single shrivelled orange testicle required to get rid of a figure as weak and pathetic as Clegg, we should be praying that they somehow do so – as if they do maintain the coalition until 2015 then the British state and everything that made it a semi-tolerable place to live will be gone beyond any hope of rebuilding.

  • AlanGiles

    David Laws is besmirched in the expenses scandal.  I think both the LDs and the Conservatives would show they were totally desperate to bring him back. Laws was extremely lucky to get away with just losing his cabinet post. Still, if the Conservatives are not worried about Azul Nadir’s money, I suppose they are desperate enough to try anything.

    I would urge politicians of all parties – ALL parties – not to give second or third chances to people who have – let’s be frank about it – been found wanting where personal integrity is concerned.

    The public have shown their contempt for politicians in general, and a lot of this is due to their greed and avarice.

    I have to say I found Laws excuses totally unconvincing – a millionaire several time over, who was so desperate to keep his private life secret, but couldn’t resist making money over it as well.

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/QDMFX65KM5STSAFHAC4FOLFTO4 fran

      Caroline Flint, Tessa Jowell, Sadiq Khan, Alistair Darling  ! 

      • AlanGiles

         Quite, Fran: I have no sympathy for any of them, regardless of party or party wing and the most disgusting thing is it would be easier to name those who didn’t  have this fault: we should never forget people like Gove, Grayling Duncan-Smith et al have been given high office in the coalition, despite their ropey records.

        That is why I said ALL parties should stop overlooking personal dishonesty. I cannot understand why these individuals haven’t got the decency to slink away, once they have been caught, instead of that we find people still willing to overlook their faults just because they regard them as “clever”

  • http://www.facebook.com/ian.robathan.5 Ian Robathan

    If Clegg goes he will not be replaced with Clegg lite – Laws

    You would think it would be Farron But how many of the party members left are from the Left ?

    Frankly they are stuffed regardless, they have lost so many urban voters their whole base in once strange cities has been destroyed – Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield even.

    We can not gain anymore from them and they are no longer an issue IMHO

    • aracataca

      Sorry Ian this sounds horribly complacent. Labour will rely on disaffected Liberal votes in crucial seats here in the East.  For example, in Cambridge and the 2 Norwich seats we need every Liberal vote we can get in order to win them back. We should  resolutely 
      continue  with our campaign against them.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

        But are they ‘Liberal votes’? Cambridge was a Labour seat, at one time a Lab/Con marginal. The LD’s capitalised on student fees and Iraq, but they can’t do that now. In Norwich they appear to be in quick retreat with the Greens the likely competitor to Labour in South, and Lab/Con in North

        Of course we should campaign against them – because its those votes coming back to us in many Lab-Con marginals which will win us the seat. Definitely no room for complacency

    • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

       What?

      a) Laws is more Clegg heavy than lite as he is even more of a true believer in free markets

      b) His scandal makes him unelectable as a leader

      c) He only sits in Parliament because he inherited Paddy Ashdown’s seat in Yeovil (and almost managed to lose it in 2001) – and like pretty much every other Lib Dem MP owes a large part of his majority to Labour voters who preferred a Lib Dem to a Tory in 2010 but certainly won’t ever make that mistake again. 

  • Brumanuensis

    Normally, the prospect of Clegg vanishing and removing a figure of discontent for anti-Lib Dem feeling to coalesce around, might worry Labour – as Janan Ganesh suggested it should, in the FT the other day.

    However the paucity of alternatives makes this a less intimidating prospect. Laws, as Alan notes, is seen as something of a crook. Huhne may well be an actual crook. Cable is, let’s be frank, too old and considerably overrated. Ed Davey is, well, anonymous. Danny Alexander is too closely tied to Osborne to win back those voters the Lib Dems have lost.

    I suspect someone ‘left-field’ will be required. Maybe Sarah ‘The Comedian’ Teather – if she holds her seat. Or perhaps Norman Baker, who seems fundamentally decent, apart from his rather strange views on Dr David Kelly.

    • Brumanuensis

      Maybe Farron, as Ian suggests. But Farron will a hard time holding his seat too.

      • http://www.facebook.com/ian.morton Ian Morton

        PMSL Farron is in no danger of losing his seat!

    • NT86

      Sarah Teather isn’t going to hold her seat in 2015, even if it’s fought on existing constituency boundaries. It’s a marginal and the membership of the Lib Dems in Brent has plummeted.  Voters have seen how the likes of her and Jo Swinson can back stab them, after years of being principled in opposition. Then came the power.

    • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

      I don’t think one can describe any Lib Dem MP as ‘fundamentally decent’ (apart from perhaps Charles Kennedy who  sensibly seems to have spent a large part of the last two years in a Highlands cave and has been strategically absent for multiple key votes like that on the final reading of the NHS bill) and decent or not Norman Baker’s Lewes seat will also disappear if the Boundary changes happen.

      And I still think the boundary changes are highly possible as the Tories need them too much to give up on – and Clegg will have little choice but to offer them a deal if the coalition is to survive.

      • Brumanuensis

        Well, he has done good work on Tibet, in Parliament. Certainly he has an incentive to vote against the boundary changes.

    • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

      Sarah Teather will definately lose her seat. Her majority is about 2,000 and she is a Lib Dem. Danny Alexander is also very likely to lose his seat too, Inverness is one we could take. Baker could lose Lewes to the Tories come 2015, because though about 45% of Lib Dems have come to us, 7% of Lib Dems have gone to the Tories (and that is in the Tory south).

      • Brumanuensis

        Probably. But if a week is a long time in politics, then three years is an eternity.

        • http://twitter.com/renieanjeh Renie Anjeh

          I think Harold Wilson was wrong about a week being a long time in politics, in many ways. Something won’t change and Lib Dem unpopularity won’t happen unless something extremely unexpected happens.

  • NT86

    I think the coalition itself will split just before the election in May 2015. But Nick Clegg might as well stick around as leader for the entire run. What difference would it make if Vince  Cable or Tim Farron (two names which have been considered as prospective leaders over at Lib Dem Voice)? The party’s image has taken an irreparable battering in just over 2 years. A new leader couldn’t change that so soon before a general election.

    Also, I’d hardly call UKIP a fringe party when they could potentially be a big factor in 2015 if they could deprive the Tories of a majority. They polled close to a million votes in 2010 (far more than the Green Party, who gained one MP) and it’s possible their vote share will just rise with the so many Tory voters wanting a more Eurosceptic option.

  • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

    While a 12,000 majority should be safe  Farron like other Lib Dem MPs in our no hope seats benefits from thousands of Labour tactical votes.

    In fact in 2010 the Labour candidate for Westmorland and Lonsdale got only 2.2% and lost his deposit in what was our worst result in the entire country.

    So I’d guess at least half of Farron’s majority are really Labour voters (based on the normal Labour vote in rural Tory seats where the Lib Dem hasn’t got a chance – and back in the days when W&L was a safe Tory seat and there was no point in voting tactically the Lab vote there was  13% to 20%) who won’t get fooled again.

    • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

       Plus if the Boundary Commission changes do happen Farron’s seat disappears and the new Kendal and Penrith constituency which takes 63% of its voters would only have has a 1,342 Lib Dem majority if the 2010 election had been fought on the new boundaries – so if Clegg does stay on and cuts a deal Farron is toast. 

      • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

        Roger, the boundary changes will not happen.

        • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

          Note my use of the conditional ‘if’.

          Some  smart and well informed observers believe that a deal will be struck to save the Boundary Commission changes in exchange for a party funding reform that benefits the Lib Dems and screws Labour.

          And the coalition has a whole year to fix this deal up (and not much else on its legislative agenda).

          So while I agree there is now a strong probability that the next election will be fought on the old boundaries we are wrong to discount the changes altogether – particularly given that the assumption that they are dead requires us to believe that Nick Clegg and his colleagues possess  backbones.

          • http://twitter.com/renieanjeh Renie Anjeh

            We are right to discount the boundary changes. Rumours regarding political funding was in exhange for Lords Reform. The Liberal Democrats have made it very clear that they will not vote for it, and that it is also because they have made a strong argument that their House of Lords reforms has to be with a reduced House of Commons. Also, if Clegg was to break the pledge he has made on the boundary changes then the Lib Dem grassroot activists will be furious. He has already tied himself to the opposing boundary changes. Also, Iain Duncan Smith has warned of the likelihood of a backbench rebellion with Tory MPs who will back the Lib Dems over the changes, despite enmity, because they’ll lose their seats. There is literally no possibility of the boundary changes going through. Tim Farron will be one of the few Lib Dem MPs remaining after the next election.

        • John_Dore

          Renie,

          If Cameron can get 305 Tory MP’s and the 8 Unionists into the yes lobby he might sneak it through. Sinn Fein dont vote, neither does the speaker or his deputies + a few Labour no shows or independent no shows and he’s there.

          The Libs going through the No Lobby will be very symbolic.

    • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

      We are still far off. Farron has one of the safest Lib Dem seats and is a very good constituency MP who has locally distanced himself from the Coalition.

  • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

     I thought comments were being pre-moderated?

  • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

    I do not believe that the Coalition will split before 2015. They have nowhere else to go. A minority government will be bad for stability. They will remain until 2015 as a Coalition and Clegg will remain leader until 2015. If there is anyone who will really stab him in the back, then it is Lembit Opik (who isn’t an MP), Lord Oakeshott (who is in the House of Lords) and Chris Huhne (who is tainted by the ticket scandal). The membership might want him out but he has loads of allies in the parliamentary party.

  • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

    It is very safe to say that David Laws will be brought back to the Cabinet, as Policy Minister. That will allow Oliver Letwin to be promoted to being Minister for the Cabinet Office and Francis Maude to be made Justice Secretary so that Ken Clarke could “retire” (i.e sacked).

    • AlanGiles

       If it was a question of bringing back Dodgy Dave Laws and sacking Ken Clarke, I think it would put the general public off politicians even more. For all his faults, Ken Clarke is generally seen as a fairly decent man, who does make gaffes but on the whole is seen as genuine and not hypocritical.

      Mr Laws on the other hand, is a millionaire several times over, and yet in the final analysis (if he is to be believed) had a choice of making money as an adjunct to his lifestyle, or saving his parents and family (and possibly himself?) from embarrassment. He chose the former rather than the latter, which shows not only where his priorities lie, but what a devious and untrustworthy individual he is.

      Given how bogus and bankrupt the Coalition is perceived, would they really want to have this reminder of the expenses scandal in plain view again?.

      Once anybody in public life have proved to be dishonest, that should be an end to their careers: it makes a mockery of the “rights and responsibilities” rhetoric of politicians, to see them dragged back as ministers or police commissioners. Obviously they can stay on the back benches, then, at the next election, their constituents can decide if they are a fit and proper person to represent them.

      • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

        Well at the end of the day it would be good politics to remove Clarke and bring back Laws. An extra Lib Dem would pacify the Lib Dems but the fact it is a centre-right economic liberal would cheer on the Tories. Clarke is a good man but he is seen as a liability to the Tories and I think there is a lot of bitterness towards him in the Tory ranks. Also, he is weak on crime. 

  • Brumanuensis

    No, I think Farron’s majority might be less impressive than it looks at first glance. I suspect a well-directed Conservative campaign might knock him out of the Commons.

    If he has to go up against Rory Stewart, assuming the boundary changes go through, then he’ll definitely be gone.

    • http://twitter.com/renieanjeh Renie Anjeh

      Of course his majority will be less impressive but he will hold his seat. He is a good campaigning MP who has built up a strong local reputation and is also a known rebel. In local elections, the Lib Dems have done well in Westmorland and Lonsdale. If Labour was second place or a very close third place in that seat, then he’ll go and we’ll probably win it but we are far off with only abour 2.2% of the vote meaning that he’s safe.
      On the boundary changes, it’s not going to happen and if so then the Lib Dems will get 7 seats. I reckon that Ed Davey will be the next Lib Dem leader.

  • Brumanuensis

    Well, political fortunes can and do change extremely quickly. Just look at what happened to Gordon Brown between September and October 2007.

    • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

      But look at Black Wednesday in 1993? The Tories’ fortunes were set in stone. Somethings are inevitable and Lib Dem demise at the next election is inevitable. They are a party voted by anti-Tories now backing the Tories. That alone puts people off.

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