Northeners will never pass the ringmaster’s hat to BoJo the Clown

August 11, 2012 3:00 pm

So much of our political debate nowadays is viewed through a London filter. Housing shortages, fears about knife crime, worrying about decent secondary schools; they are all are legitimate concerns for people in every part of the country – but they are mega-issues in London.

They are steroid-pumped by experience in the capital and assumed to equally apply to the rest of the country. London opinion, it is casually assumed, is shorthand for British public opinion.

Only it isn’t.

Nowhere is this ill-informed belief more evident than in the persistent chatter that London Mayor Boris Johnson is ‘on manoeuvres’ in his bid to succeed David Cameron as Tory leader and PM.

The obvious explanation for this headlong lurch into surrealism is that Thames Water is putting hallucinogenic compounds into its pipes. What else could generate and sustain such a fantastical suggestion?

Silly season speculation of the most ludicrous kind? This was my initial explanation for this humorous mass delusion; however it shows no sign of abating. The man himself this week proclaimed he has no interest “at the moment” in being Prime Minister; ensuring, of course, that the speculation that he really wants to will drone on for longer than one of Homer’s poems.

But even those for whom Boris is a refreshing antidote to the pallid automatons of British politics will stop short of passing the ringmaster’s hat to the chief clown. Moreover, this rejection will multiply the further from London you care to venture. The Tories already face an electoral desert in northern England and struggle to gain traction in most large cities.

A recent YouGov survey asked the public which other leading Tory should replace David Cameron if he were to step down. Out in front was Boris with 24% of the vote; however this figure was actually 29% in London but just 23% across the north of England, dropping to 18%  in Scotland.

With large parts of the north and midlands, not to mention Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in the economic deep freeze, the idea that this comedy sketch character could make it to Number Ten in order to make things even worse is greeted with something less than alacrity by millions of us north of the Watford gap.

The same poll asked if people thought their financial circumstances would improve or get worse over the next 12 months. 46% of Londoners thought they would get worse, rising to 55%  of Northeners and 58% cent of Scots.

Boris is an in-joke, a metropolitan folly, an indulgence for those who like their politics amusing and irrelevant. Here in the real world, we know we can’t afford him.

Granted, a few more mavericks in British politics would be welcome – and there’s certainly public support for that; but strip away the bravado and all you are left with in Boris’s case is a neo-Lawsonite champion of financial deregulation and the City’s venal interests who, we learn, is now cosying up to Rupert Murdoch while squatting in the remnants of Ken Livingstone’s legacy.

As Bradley Wiggins would put it, Boris is the political equivalent of a celebrity famous for, well, nothing, apart from being themselves. Like Russell Brand, another luxuriously-barneted irritant who uses elongated sentences and abstract metaphors, Boris has as much substance as hydrogen.

The idea that this shambling, incoherent man with no discernible achievements in office is fit to lead a political party, never mind the country, is , as he might put it himself, an inverted pyramid of piffle.

Clearly the role of London Mayor is unlike any other job in British politics; being two parts showbiz to one part public administration. It’s important, but, whisper it, not that critical.

If great issues of our time amount to whether there should be bendy buses or double-decker Routemasters then it is hardly comparable with being Prime Minister. Like being Secretary of State for Defra, it is perfectly conceivable to imagine the world muddling through mayor or no mayor.

Boris may moisten like one of his infamous otters at the prospect of replacing his Bullingdon Club co-diner as Premier, but he is hopelessly, historically, hilariously ill-suited to the job.

And the farther you live from the Westminster bubble, the less you appreciate the prospect.

  • jaime taurosangastre candelas

    The last Prime Minister who came from north of the Watford Gap – viz one James Gordon Brown – was hardly a role model for competence either.

    And before him, there was Tony Blair, also from north of the Watford Gap.  He was not so popular either.

    Before him, John Major, from Huntingdon which is about level or slightly south of the Watford Gap.  Not really unpopular, but not hugely popular either.  In terms of achievements, better than Maggie (from a Labour perspective), but worse than Maggie (from a perspective of actually changing things, mostly for the better).

    And then Maggie, from Grantham.  That is north of the Watford Gap.  According to Labour, she was truly Old Nick herself, with a sickle and a mission to murder industry.

    And before her, “Sunny” Jim Callaghan, from south of the Watford Gap but further away from London.  He had a Winter of Discontent in his PM CV.

    And before him, Harold Wilson, apparently from Liverpool.  His Government saw income tax levels at 90%, and 98% on investments, and an outflow of money from the UK to overseas of about half a trillion pounds (that is 1974 pounds).

    Perhaps the real message is that PMs from north of the Watford Gap are toxic?

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=715486331 Alex Otley

      Actually the real message is that clown Boris is a loveable TV character, but outside London and the Home Counties nobody is particularly impressed.

      • AnotherOldBoy

        I think you will find that Mr Wilson hailed form Yorkshire.

        • PeterBarnard

          Huddersfield, AOB (Harold Wilson).

          Corny old rhyme (Sheffield University Rag Mag c.1965) :

          There was a farm near Huddersfield,
          Where lived a cow that wouldn’t yield.
          The reason why it wouldn’t yield,
          It didn’t like its udders feel’d.

          Jaime was inaccurate on the income tax rates on earned income, too.

          All through the 1950s, 1960s, and into the early 1970s, the top rate of surtax was 50% ; this was raised to 75% in the last year (1973-74) of the then Conservative government, and to 83% (not 90%) for 1974-75.

          • PeterBarnard

            Not writing too clearly there. In 1972-73, the surtax was added to the basic rate of  income tax, so that the tax payable on a chargeable slice of income of £15,000 + would have been 38.75% + 50% = 88.75%

            Surtax was abolished in 1973-74 so that a slice of taxable income of over £20,000 attracted just an income tax rate of 75%. Investment income over £2,000 attracted a 15% surcharge in 1973-74.

            High tax rates on high incomes were not uncommon in those days, whether the government was Conservative or Labour.

          • John Dore

            Wrong coulmn eh Peter? Whatever its just  semantics.

          • JoeDM

            And the economy was continually up the creek without a paddle.

          • PeterBarnard

            Well, Mr DM, if we take two indicators of general prosperity – home ownership and private car ownership – in the 18 years before your Blessed Margaret received the keys to 10 Downing Street, and the 18 years afterwards :

            Cars + 8.5 million before ; + 7.0 million afterwards

            Home ownership + 4.8 million before ; + 4.8 million after, only with the assistance of council houses sold at give-away prices … council houses that were built when we were “up the creek without a paddle.”

            More :

            Miles of motorway built : 1,270 before ; 480 after

            Electrical generating capacity added : 37 GW before ; 1.3 GW after.

            Economic output increase per head of population : 50% before ; 43% after.

            Some creek … some paddle.

      • jaime taurosangastre candelas

        That’s the message you draw from the main article, but I do not.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=715486331 Alex Otley

          Did you even read the polling data? In the North, Scotland, Wales, Midlands and even the South BoJo the Clown has negative net support for succeeding Cameron. Only in London do voters back him over Cameron. Indeed in everywhere apart from London Hague has better net approval over Cameron than BoJo does. Outside of London, nobody is particularly impressed. Go figure.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Polling data is only that:  a snapshot according to one polling company at one time.  The evidence referred to involves a specific single poll of a very limited amount of people, conducted in London and mostly about the Olympics – the political questions are secondary.  Do you expect me to extrapolate anything from that?  Do you extrapolate anything from that?  If you do, you need to watch out for being bitten on the bottom by an assumption of your own.

            So, go figure, if your mathematical education in the UK has equipped you to do so.

          • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=715486331 Alex Otley

            You can argue about the methodology and the choice of question. Everybody knows that opinion polls should be taken with a pinch of salt. But the difference between support for Boris in London and outside of London is significant however, which is really what this article is about. Didn’t realise that pointing out that people in the Westminster bubble bigging up Boris’ hopes of leading the Tory party might be getting ahead of themselves was such a mistake. 

            Obviously calculating if John Major was born north or south of the Watford Gap is far more relevant than pointing out that Boris might not be quite as popular as some people think.

    • derek lancaster

      I would argue that you should never let anyone Scottish run a bank or the the country or the budget. If recent history is anything to go by,

      • John Dore

        That’s actually racist against the Scots. Brown was useless but Darling very good, go figure that out.

        • JoeDM

           So good that the Coalition have continued the economic policy that Darling kicked-off in the first place.  He seems to be one of the few Labour politicians who actually understand the nature of the problem.

          • http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

            But because the Tory-led coalition has scuppered the recovery more and more significant voices are crying out for a Plan B.

            Or, to put it into IMF-speak: “The Government’s reduction of deficits over the past two years has created the space for recalibrating fiscal policy.”

      • john p Reid

        Sir alec Douglas Home a Scot, on leaving Downing street in 1964 was responsible for Reginauld MAulding saying to incoming Chancellor Jim Clallaghan ‘sorry about the estate of the economy’ for the record,I seem to recall the tories not caring what Scotland or Wales thought when they were running the country, aslong as London and the midlands kept voting them back in

      • john p Reid

        Sir alec Douglas Home a Scot, on leaving Downing street in 1964 was responsible for Reginauld MAulding saying to incoming Chancellor Jim Clallaghan ‘sorry about the estate of the economy’ for the record,I seem to recall the tories not caring what Scotland or Wales thought when they were running the country, aslong as London and the midlands kept voting them back in

      • PaulHalsall

        I am as English as they come.

        This comment should be removed as racist.

    • http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

      “I cannot imagine him at all in the seat of power when some “event” occurs”

      Ed will get the chance to evidence his crisis-readiness when Syria has been reduced to chaos or rubble and the bombing of Iran starts – will Ed support a nuclear free Middle East or cheer Cameron’s pro-intervention stance from the side-lines?

      • jaime taurosangastre candelas

        I don’t imagine it matters very much at all what Ed does or does not do in such a circumstance, apart from to a couple of thousand Labour activists.  Do you imagine that the foreign minister of Russia or Mexico or any other nation will be thinking “Hmmm, how will this proposal sit with Ed Miliband, the opposition leader in the UK, and who will not be elected for at least 2 years, and probably not at all?”

        • http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

          The tide of opinion matters and while Ed’s role may not be crucial, if adequately cogent, he could have some input via channels of influence.

          But such an event may well prove to be pivotal to Ed’s political career. Just supposing the Iran ‘event’ occurs before the Corby by-election and an anti-war candidate emerges – the candidate may not win but, depending on Labour’s response, may attract what would otherwise have been Labour votes, and of course, the LibDem protest vote will have found another home.

          Many have said Ed’s leadership will be finished if he can’t win Corby; in such circumstances he will have to call it right and deliver on his call.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            But this is semantics.  I contend to you that there are two audiences to whom Ed should need to show his readiness:  one is the group of international statesmen and women, and another is the domestic electorate.  The first would not give him a hearing at this stage (too far from next election, cannot bring down Government = unimportant), the other are (all of us) some foolish jeering mob whose attention is like the gnat and who will have changed sides in our support of politicians 17 further times in between now and the next election.

            I do sometimes wonder whether we as the electorate deserve the vote, we use it so badly and with so little attention.  But that is shocking talk…. :)

          • http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

            “we use it [the vote] so badly and with so little attention”

            Well, considering the voting options available (fptp, dodgy careerist politicians etc.) I’d say our attitude is unsurprising and nearly appropriate.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            But it does seem that we quite like FPTP.  There was a recent referendum in which FPTP appeared to be the settled will of the people, much to the annoyance of those advocating a more proportional system (even if itself pretty imperfect).

          • http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

            But the offer on the table was so poor even supporters of PR like myself had little enthusiasm for it.

            Better to wait for the opportunity to get the real thing.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            I was a “No” voter because for my own odd reasons I prefer FPTP.  

            Much as you told me a couple of days ago that my ideas were to go into the wilderness (you may be correct), I can say to you that the last referendum was a once in a generation – and more probably a lifetime – for your view.  So while you think it may be better to wait for the real thing, the waiting may be a lifetime.

          • http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

            Sure. You know how it is though – the wilderness is becoming very crowded…

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            I will be setting up my own Orange Book UKIP pro-”Safety net but not unquestioning support” little party.  I may get as many as several votes!

          • MonkeyBot5000

            “…whose attention is like the gnat and who will have changed sides in our
            support of politicians 17 further times in between now and the next
            election.”

            You’re right, it would be much better if we just picked a colour and voted for it regardless of their policies.

          • MonkeyBot5000

            “…whose attention is like the gnat and who will have changed sides in our
            support of politicians 17 further times in between now and the next
            election.”

            You’re right, it would be much better if we just picked a colour and voted for it regardless of their policies.

          • MonkeyBot5000

            “…whose attention is like the gnat and who will have changed sides in our
            support of politicians 17 further times in between now and the next
            election.”

            You’re right, it would be much better if we just picked a colour and voted for it regardless of their policies.

          • John Dore

            oh the irony is killing me.

          • http://www.facebook.com/david.sylvester.963 David Sylvester

            I thought that it was C ameron who was going to resign if he could not hold onto Corby. I can’t see it making much difference to Labour but it is certainly crucuial for Cameron and his policy of forcing candidates on the local associations !!

    • Amber Star

      The article is not about where Boris comes from; it’s about where the voters are coming from. Voters outside London have been polled. Their opinions of Harold or Tony or Gordon or Margaret are factored into their decision. And their verdict is: They don’t like Boris.

    • PaulHalsall

      Wilson came from Huddersfield!

      • jaime taurosangastre candelas

        Sorry Paul, he probably did, I was referring to his constituency which was in Liverpool.

  • http://www.robbiescott.com/ Robbie Scott

    Well Labour leaning London did whilst simultaneously giving Labour the GLA so I wouldn’t be too sure. People like him, he isn’t a clown it’s an act there’s a difference I think. Also I don’t think you need to run London or the country like an Emperor or a President. That’s what Tony Blair and Gordon Brown did and that’s what Cameron is trying to do. If we returned to  cabinet government where you delegate  I think Boris would probably make a pretty decent Tory PM you just let the clever people get on with the policy. That’s essentially what he’s done in London whilst pursuing populist policies like the Bike Hire scheme and the Cable Cars etc. 

  • Daniel Speight

    If you worry about Blo-Jo getting too close the reins of power then you should look at who Romney has just  picked to be his running mate. If you want Nineteenth Century style neo-liberalism then he’s your man.

    • John Dore

      Doesn’t matter what side of the pond you’re on, there are power crazed fools seeking election. 

      We all love the common man, trust me….hurrumph.

  • http://www.facebook.com/david.sylvester.963 David Sylvester

    Once Cameron loses the election people in the NorthEast will be only tooo willing to se and support Guppy’s friend becoming leader of the opposition as it would mean that the Tory party,under Darius’s friend, would never again win an election !!!

    Go Darius Guppy’s friend !

    • John Dore

      Lost me there, who are Guppy and Darius?

      • Alan Giles

         Darius Guppy, is a famous ex-Etonian who went to prison for doing something dishonest, and it has been suggested that Johnson when he was an editor of a publication, offered to, or actually did,  assist Guppy to obtain the details of people who were going to be involved in the prosecution case, so that Guppy’s friends could – shall we say?- warn them not to.

  • linkyjohn

    THe Tories nationally will vote for a leader they know will win an election for them.
    The electorate in London voted for Boris regardless of his policies so I cannot see the rest of the country being any different.

    • John Dore

      You forget the Ken factor, you cant imagine how toxic Ken is.

  • Hamish

    Tommy Sheridan as the Respect candidate might take a trick.

  • Amber Star

    It is amazing; the Bo-Jo fans actually believe that beneath the clownish exterior there is a political & economic genius just waiting to be unveiled. Not likely, is it?

    Furthermore, I’d be amazed if more than 10% of UK women would even consider voting for this lying, misogynistic philanderer. Glistening otters; what a pillock. Just let mums-net loose on him & all talk of Boris for PM will slip quietly away.

    • jaime taurosangastre candelas

      “Mums Net” – the digital equivalent of “Les Tricoteuses”

      Just like here on LL, or any other internet forum, Mums Net commenters are mostly idiots (we all are). Except in their case, the BBC Radio 4 and Jenni Murray have announced to the nation that Mum’s Net is somehow a bit special.  It is not.  It comes across as a group of self-congratulating harridans who appear to be intellectual pigmies.

      • Amber Star

        It comes across as a group of self-congratulating harridans who appear to be intellectual pigmies.
        —————–
        They all get a vote, Jaime.

        • jaime taurosangastre candelas

          Yes, they do.  I wonder how many of them use that vote with discrimination and wisdom?  But that is irrelevant – the votes of those who vote wisely are only as valid and worth the votes of those whose decision is deeply suspect.  Such is democracy.

    • john p Reid

      Boirs won the mayorlaty despite ruining the trains cutting the policke and his palns for river crossings have disappreared, let alon he hasn’t a clue how to deal with the airport problem, he won for one reason, 1.5million londoners hated Ken, now if he’s tory leader he’ll have to hope there’s a Labour leader as unpopular as ken,

    • ThePurpleBooker

      Attacking parents who we need to win is not the answer. Boris is a very intelligent man, he has a degree in Classics from Oxford – that is just a  fact.

  • ThePurpleBooker

    71% of people want Boris as PM.

    • Amber Star

      Not according to the Sunday Telegraph ICM poll.
      In another reality check for the London Mayor, he is ranked below Mr Cameron, and on the same level as Mr Miliband, when voters are asked who would make the best prime minister. Some 24 % pick Mr Cameron with 20 % opting both for Mr Johnson and Mr Miliband and Nick Clegg trailing well behind on just 6 %.So Cameron benefits from a small incumbent bonus – it’s easier to be seen as Prime Ministerial when you are actually doing the job. And Ed ‘he’ll never be PM’ Miliband is ranked alongside Boris ‘he’s so popular’ Johnson. This at a time when it’s been all quiet from Ed & Boris has been everywhere due to the Olympics.

      • ThePurpleBooker

        Amber, that is not true. You are looking at load of old polls. 71% of people want Boris as PM. 71% that is YouGov! Labour and Lib Dem  voters who would more likely to vote Tory if Boris were leader. Northerners are quite frankly irrelevant when it comes to giving Boris the crown, because if ever he’s at the Tory helm he could easily win over key marginals.

        • Amber Star

          Post a link to that poll. It doesn’t exist. It’s most likely a cross-break from a poll. A tiny, irrelevant piece picked out of the main poll by desperate Boris fans then tweeted all over the place.

          So, go on, post a link to the poll, if you can find it… I’m willing to bet you can’t!

          • Alan Giles

             Good morning Amber. That poll probably does exist somewhere on Planet Purple – perhaps in the very newspaper PB works on (he one claimed to be a journalist) – it’s probably called The Purple Free Advertiser.

            Seriously, if Mark Ferguson is reading this, why on earth do you continue to allow this clown to post his abuse and fantasies?

            He has accused me and others of being “insane”, of drug taking and of serious criminal offences – yet he is allowed to witter on unchecked.

            On Friday alone, 2 posters left the site because of his continuing and increasingly coarse abuse.

            A poster the other day raised the suggestion that “The Purple Booker” might actually be an employee of LL, and I do begin to wonder. Could he be there to stir up debate on an increasingly contracting site?.

            Certainly if he made the sort of allegations he does here on BBC or newspaper sites, his comments would be deleted and he would be banned. That is not censorship, it is common sense. One of these days he will make an allegation against somebody who will take the matter further, and land both LL itself and PB himself in legal ramifications.

            It is hard to believe anything PB writes, but I am rather hoping this new found love for Boris Johnson becomes a permanent thing, and he goes off and join’s Johnson’s circus. They are made for each other

          • ThePurpleBooker
          • Alan Giles

             The data fo the Reuters article comes from Ladbrokes, and other turf accountants and betting sites.

            Hardly scientific. Some poor souls would bet on anything. And do, which is why they are in such poor circumstances.

            If this means anything at all, it just means people have been carried away by the Olympics, and have somehow managed to convince themselves that Johnson is somehow responsible for the success

    • john p Reid

      the telegraph on the eve of the 97 election said it would be a tory landslide…

  • Amber Star

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9469042/Reality-check-as-poll-delivers-modest-bounce-for-Boris-Johnson.html

    Nothing to see here, move along… Boris adds just one point to the Tory score at the height of his Olympics bounce. And even that will soon evaporate when folks come down off the Olympics ‘high’.

  • Holly

    Absolutely true.

  • Gladhob

    All the news we get is about London, as far as the Government is concerned we do not exist, except at election time when they need our vote.

  • Franwhi

    Lots of people are irritants – all part of life’s rich tapestry. Yet you’re a bit unfair singling out Russell Brand and unwarranted. As far as I know he’s not asking for votes nor is he paid from the public purse or seeking political office – not yet anyway. Sayonara    

  • derek

    Wow! Boris the dancer, politics aside.The closing ceremony was delightful a reaL “ROCKING SHOW” Brian May was awesome and the Lennon was uplifting! imagine all possessions, I wonder if  you can!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

    • Amber Star

      It’s “imagine no possessions…”.

  • ThePurpleBook

    We should not fall into the trap of underestimating or categorising Boris Johnson. Boris is a strange phenemenon. He is a libertarian, pro-supply side reforms, pro-flat tax, anti-House of Lords reform, pro-airport expansion and Eurosceptic. However, he is also pro-living wage, anti-police cuts, anti-EMA cut, anti-housing benefit cuts, pro-immigrant amnesty (even for illegal immigrants), pro-social house building, pro-gay marriage (his recent conversion to social liberalism) and pro-Obama. I think if Boris were to stand for the Tory leadership, his opponents – probably George Osborne - will warn the Tory right that he has leftwing views on immigration, welfare (in some cases) and he is more progressive in terms of foreign policy (apart from on Europe). Anyway, do you think Peter Bone will vote for someone who’ll let all immigrants stay? Do you think rightwing MPs in Kent will eventually vote for someone who would majorly disrupt their constituents? When push comes to shove, they will not back him.
    Boris Johnson is an intelligent buffoon, and I have changed my mind. He could win an election at the helm now with more and more people saying they want him as PM, in a atime of anti-politics, where we’re seeing a Presidential style of politics. My view is that George Osborne is poised for a coronation for the Tory leadership in 2005. His supporters read like a roll call: David Cameron, Michael Gove, William Hague, Phillip Hammond, Justine Greening (perhaps not anymore), Andrew Mitchell, Francis Maude, Oliver Letwin, Greg Barker, Liam Fox, Chloe Smith, Ben Gummer, Matt Hancock, Savij Jahid, David Gauke, Greg Hands, Charlie Elphicke, Nadhim Zahawi, Jesse Norman, Claire Perry, Karen Bradley, Mark Garnier, Penny Mordaunt – in fact I should say the vast majority of 301 and 2020 Groups in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson however has to continue his final term as Mayor but even though he can stand for 2015 (and there MPs who’d sacrifice their careers for him and Bob Stewart and Nadine Dorries have supported a Boris leadership), he will not only be blocked by the leadership – in other words George Osborne – because of his pledge to finish his final term as Mayor and not stand for the Commons. I would hate to see Boris Johnson become Tory leader and Leader of the Opposition seen as he would probably win in 2020 so I’m praying to God that George Osborne gets the job.

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