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Of course there will be an Olympic Bounce for the Tories – but who cares?

August 1, 2012 12:23 pm

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Do you remember it? The gloom? The shattered economy and the incompetent government? It seems so long ago now, and yet it was just last week that we discovered the full extent of the damage that George Osborne has done to the Economy (so far). Gloom was followed by doom, as surely as night follows day. The longest double dip recession since records began was here. National confidence was through the floor.

And then they came.

From every corner of the globe, they came.

And suddenly things were good again. Fireworks exploded over East London. Nurses danced. Towers were erected and a flame was lit. And it felt like a whole country had a smile on its face (well…almost). 27 million people staying up late on a Friday night and watching a demonstration of the very best of what makes our country Great. (I won’t go further into the opening ceremony – partially because others have written fantastically on it already, and partially because I’m not sure what the plural of “Mary Poppins” is…)

And then came the sport – the greatest display of sporting endeavour ever seen on this planet, organised by us, delivered by us. And we’ve even won a gold medal now.

Who wouldn’t be bursting with national pride?

Who wouldn’t find themselves sat in a car on the M1 on Sunday night screaming “Come on Rebecca” at the radio, despite having not the slightest interest in or understanding of swimming? Who wouldn’t attempt to learn the scoring system for Equestrian? (don’t bother it’s barmy) And who wouldn’t want to go and see South Korea vs Gabon at Wembley Stadium on a Wednesday evening? (there’s only one Ji Dong Won)

That’s just my Olympics experience so far. There are millions like it. That’s how the games are being talked about in pubs and offices, at bus stops and in the cafe next to my flat. The news isn’t even the news anymore (it goes sport-Syria-sport – which is disconcerting to say the least). Everywhere the games are a personal and collective experience all at once.

Except in the world of politics of course, where all anyone seems to be talking about is whether or not there will be an Olympic bounce or not. If that doesn’t show what a weird bunch political obsessives, politicians and the media are I don’t know what possibly could…

Lets be clear – of course there will be an Olympic bounce for the government. How could the not be? I’m certainly feeling more positive about life with the greatest show on earth being held – and organised fantastically – in one of the greatest cities on earth. Despite having spent the last two years of my life chronicling the misdeeds of this government, I’ve hardly given them any thought over the past five or six days. As Anthony Wells rightly points out, the Olympics bounce is at least in part likely to mean the public have gone a few days without hearing bad news about the government – a brief and rare respite for the public, as much as for the politicians.

Despite the fact that Labour deserve much of the credit for these Olympics (winning them, putting infrastructure in place, funding them), the government of the day will gain from the palpable feel good factor that already exists and will only increase as we begin to rack up more gold medals.

So should we care that there’s an Olympics bounce? Of course not. Firsly because if you worrying about minor polling changes (in all likelihood within the margin of error) when you could be learning about handball, then what’s wrong with you? And secondly, because when all of the games – Olympic and Paralympic – have finished, London shrinks back down to its normal size, the records have been broken and all we have left is an Olympic legacy and some fond memories, the fundamentals of British politics will remain the same.

The coalition will still be tearing itself apart. Cameron will still be hated by his parliamentary party. George Osborne will still be a worse chancellor than a pigeon, and the economy will still be a mess.

If you want something to worry about, then worry about that. But I’d suggest that you might be better served by watching the cycling, relaxing and enjoying the respite from bad political and economic news. Because you’ll miss this break from economic horror when it’s gone. I know I will…

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  • Redshift

    Erm, so far there hasn’t been one. We had a 9-10 point lead (with YouGov) before the Olympics and the ones since show results in the same range (if you take into account margin of error). 

    You could argue that we’d have increased our lead if stories on the economy, etc had been more prominent – but so far at least, there is no evidence of an olympic poll boost for the Tories. 

    • Redshift

      PS - 
      CON 33%(nc), LAB 44%(+2), LDEM 10%(-3), Others 13%(+1)

      COMRES latest.

      • aracataca

        Precisely Redshift. Good article except that there hasn’t been a poll boost so the whole premise of what Mark has written is non-existent.

  • http://twitter.com/johnringer John Ringer

    This comes across as a bit defensive, Mark, given that there hasn’t been an Olympics boost as of yet. Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report has a good breakdown: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5944

    • treborc

      I do not know do people see the games as being political a lift for labour or the Tories, i doubt it.

      I thinking the people taking part in the games may well give the country a lift as I saw today with the rowing, but I do not claim this was due to labour or the Tories.

  • PaulHalsall

    I think Boris Johnson may have gained a boost from the Olympics so far. (Even I enjoyed his take down of Mitt Romney), but not the Tories in general.

    • http://twitter.com/MatthewSDent Matthew S. Dent

      Perhaps, until he spent the afternoon dangling from a zip wire.

      • KonradBaxter

        Really? I can’t see that harming his ‘Man / Buffoon of the People’ image. If he’d lost his temper and started yelling maybe, but he seemed to take it in good spirits.

  • Winston_from_the_Ministry

    Labour funded the olympics?

    How generous ;D

    • Hugh

       No wonder the party is skint.

    • Holly

      Would that be from their own salaries,(paid by taxes from the private sector) or from taxes in general?
      NO political party ‘owns’ the games, and it is this constant point scoring that will eventually put off the electorate.
      This is about people. Those who are competing, and those who are supporting them.

      All the nonsense about the opening ceremony and how ‘left’ it was infuriated me.
      Everything in the ceremony was about Britain, not Labour or Conservatives.
      It was a condensed version of how we got to be the fantastic people we are today.
      It was a celebration of us. The British people. We are the one’s who went through all the turmoil. We are the one’s who volunteered en masse. We are the one’s who pay for, work in, and use the NHS. We are the one’s who invent, produce & buy great music, fashion & art. We are the one’s involved in things like CND etc.
      The politicians are simply ‘bit players’…WE do the actual shaping/work.
      We are the one’s worthy of the credit.
      Nothing ‘left’ or ‘right’ about it.
      I loved the opening ceremony for what it was…
      A huge celebration of US. 
      Paid for by….US, not Labour or Conservatives.

      • Winston_from_the_Ministry

        I’m sorry, I thought I was being more obviously sarcastic.

  • KonradBaxter

    Quite right. Any Olympic bounce will be short lived and nothing to fuss about.

    But Labour did NOT ‘fund’ the Olympics. They just wrote a blank cheque with taxpayers money.

    And maybe don’t be so keen to remind people that Labour decided to pour billions into this. After all, when people look at the cost post-Olympics do you want them to present Labour with the bill?

  • Alan

    The media is full of the Olympics, yes (“sport-Syria-sport”) and even Channel 4 News and Jon Snow sound like adolescents but not everyone is obsessed in the way you describe.

    I enjoyed the Opening Ceremony (the next day) but that’s it so far. Few of the people I talk to are spending their days patriotically watching strange sports.

    It is all another world. If it wasn’t for Twitter I would happily let it all pass me by.

    • treborc

      Strange sports, but yes the news channels have gone over board.

    • Holly

      You are missing a fantastic display of human performance.
      Little things like the aquatics centre, with the little pool the swimmers/divers go in after they have done their ‘thing’….We created that…All the tiling, towels, scoreboards, seats…A ‘village’…Quite amazing.

      Forget Twitter, have a quick watch, and make your own decision on it, instead of going by other people’s opinion.
      I have found that politics has become ‘another world’. Full of arrogant, childish, inept beings not worthy of the great British public’s support. All vying for ‘importance’ and failing miserably compared to the fantastic sports men & women.

  • Stephen

     Never forget it was Tony Blair and Ken Livingstone that got us the Olympics ..I doubt it’s something the Coalition could have achieved given David Camerons habit of talking down to foreigners from the sidelines. 

    • treborc

       ”given David Camerons habit of talking down to foreigners from the sidelines”.

      Come on Scotland’s not that bad.

  • Timsharp1

    Apart from Boris muscling in I think the Olympics are a product of Labour … I think the public will remember that.

    • treborc

      No they will not, they will either enjoy the games as games or they will think it was a waste, but I suspect neither party will make much political gains out of this.

      • Holly

        Long may it remain thus.

    • Holly

      The Olympics are a product of the people, NOT the politicians!
      We built it. We are competing in it. We are supporting the sports men & women competing in it. We are guarding it. We are the volunteers. And most importantly..
      We are paying for it.
      Labour just happened to be in government at the time of the bid.
      Give the credit to those who actually deserve it…..US!
      How good do you think it would be without the people? If it was all down to the politicians?
      Crap is a rough estimate….

      • treborc

        But as we all know in life success will be deemed to be political, Blair is back in labour and he’s in charge and do not laugh, as the person in charge of the Olympic legacy. In other words he will be shouting the games were labour it was labour, then it will be it was Blair, Blair did it all, then it will be  Blair for leader.

        You cannot keep a good PR person down for long.

        • Holly

          All the more reason for us to ‘gently’ remind the likes of Blair, who did the actual work.
          PR is so out dated today, and the politicians who try to fob us off with their ‘look how great ‘I’ am’ routine, is only successful as long as, WE who are meant to swallow it, let them tout their phoney rhetoric.

          I have just had a cup of tea in a cafe, and read a piece in a paper, by some woman, and she has sussed out that the politicians doing the rounds today are nowhere near in tune with today’s Brits.

          Blair can say whatever he likes, he is a liar. Not just the usual politician failing to live up to his hype, or sticking to his election promises, but a liar.
          Everything in Westminster & media-land is deemed political, and only if we allow it to be so is it deemed the same out here in Britain.

          I simply want us, the British people, to start having the confidence to realise WE are what makes this country tick/work/function, and that it is high time we took some of the power/credit back from them.

          All the emphasis is put on how ‘important’ they are, when they are nowhere near as ‘important’ as we are.

          Maybe I will live long enough to see all the PR/bull vanish, and the sooner we stop accepting it, the sooner it will happen.

          Blair, Labour, Conservatives, Cameron, etc. will be getting NO credit for anything in this house.
          Again, IF the economy ever turns around, it will be because of us. We are the one’s who will start new businesses, spend, work, save, and live within our means…The politicians will of course do whatever we let them get away with….Including PR(good or bad).
          Blair started the snowballing PR/media guff, and the current bunch of duds that fill the House of Commons know no other way than to bow down to it.
          Cameron & Co tried their best not to get ‘sucked in’, and stayed off the airwaves…By doing this they got soundly trounced by their PR/media guff loving opponents.
          Trying to get the upper hand back, by more PR/media guff is doomed to fail, because we tire of the constant childish point scoring.

          2015 will indeed be interesting.
           
            

  • TomFairfax

    Even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from the right height.

    (Of course it will just go splat if you over do the height. Given the reported fall in footfall through shops, and plummeting hotel charges in London, it may be that the government has even managed to screw up the major positive that was being hoped for from holding these games, a boost to the economy/tourism, by warning people not to go to London during the games and making it appear as if the city couldn’t manage normal life and the Olympic games at the same time. )

    • PeterBarnard

      What’s the coefficient of restitution of a dead cat,  Thomas F (it must have such a property in order to bounce …)?

      Hope you are well!

      • TomFairfax

         Hi Peter,
        No idea. Ours isn’t deceased yet and doesn’t want to take part in the experiment to determine it. Clearly similarity is more in line with a road kill deer carcass then a rubber ball.

        But as she’s a tad fluffy I imagine she’ll not bounce as well as some others. Still I assume she’ll defract going through a small gap as well as bounce like a dead chicken (a teensy weensy bit). On the bright side I am now able to breathe clearly in the oresence of feline creatures these days, even if the eyes go a bit red.

        I’m fine, enjoying a break before joining an Indian owned marque that has a leaping moggy badge.

        • PeterBarnard

          Good luck with your new employer, Thomas F, and I hope that you enjoy the experience. They do seem to know what they are doing …

          • TomFairfax

             Thank you. I hope you’ve had a chance to enjoy taking a stroll across the hills with the hound during the recent better weather.

          • Dave Postles

             Echo.  I love seeing all the Jags around now and I shall think of you when I see them in the future.  Success to you.

          • TomFairfax

             Thank you.

            I should point out that both JaguarLand Rover and Nissan have vacancies in design engineering.

            It’s just Jag are rather better in publicising them.

            Of more concern. I was the only UK national at the interview session at Jag, out of five, which begs the question about the education and and training of engineers in this country.

            Still the Raspberry Pi might begin to reverse that declining trend, but it’ll take a while.

      • Bill Lockhart

        If the cat belonged to Erwin Schroedinger it could be dead and alive at the same time.

        • Bill Lockhart

           I didn’t write the above. When I use German words I try to use the correct spelling.

          • PeterBarnard

            Whether you did or did not, Bill (and I believe you that you didn’t), it was completely wasted on me because I’ve never heard of the bloke.

            Someone has been too clever by half …

          • Bill Lockhart

            I suppose it was a bit of an imposition to joke about quantum superposition. Sorry about the umlaut. My doppelganger – or should I say doppelgänger”  - who haunts this site is clearly somewhat anal.

          • TomFairfax

             Shame, I thought it was quite good. Who is the other W.Lockhart?

            I think you’ll find these days oe has supplanted ö in general usage due to the rise of the PC, as recognised by the German government.

            Generally ignored by people whose names contain the traditional characters of course.

    • treborc

       Did you see that on TV pretty shocking they said London has never been so empty

      • TomFairfax

         But I bet it is still rammed compared with Ipswich on a Good Friday. Interestingly the children, given the option of going to London  next week or the Black Country Museum opted for Tipton and Dudley.

    • Bill Lockhart

      “Hoped for”? By whom? Labour supporters and Lord Coe?  The overall negative impact on tourism from hosting the Olympics is well known. Athens, Sydney and beijing all had significant losses in tourism in the time around the Games. It was predicted for London 2012 years ago. Maybe Blair and Livingstone forgot to read up on the subject properly, or perhaps their personal vanity got the better of them again.

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8343784.stm

      • TomFairfax

         Good point.

        Good job George Osborne hasn’t made it first, because he’ll now collar some of the blame (because Boris the Fat is somewhat teflon coated, but still too heavy for a zip wire), whilst Dave C soaks up the feel good aura surrounding the sporting success.

  • Mickelmas

    Allowing the Tories to take all the credit for the Olympics is as defeatist as Andy Murray refusing to challenge his clear ace serve being ruled out by a line judge. The public need to be reminded that these Games would not be taking place in London if it were not for the efforts of Tony Blair and the then Labour government. This coalition/Tory government is essentially basking in the limelight created by Labour. Failing to inform people of the truth is a political dereliction of duty as is Labour’s failure to capitalise on post-2010 errors in government management.

    • KonradBaxter

      “The public need to be reminded that these Games would not be taking place in London if it were not for the efforts of Tony Blair and the then Labour government”

      Which is no doubt the same policy the Tories have should anything go wrong or if people ask ‘HOW much did this cost? How much money have businesses lost?’.

    • Dave Postles

       Sorry, but it’s another Blairite prestige project like the dome, based in London, paid for by taxpayers in the rest of the country, and likely to have as many deficiencies as advantages.

    • Holly

      So lets just say, for arguments sake, that because of Blair and Labour London won the 2012 bid.
      How much further would the 2012 success go without the people?
      Giving Blair credit for winning a bid is one thing, making out it is all down to him is quite another. 
      He was not that great, he failed to put his chancellor in his place, and his biggest mistake was buying the inept fool an ice cream!
      Blair was weak, he was bullied by the brownites, and failed in his duty to put the country before his own vanity…THEN, when he manages to get re elected in 2005, HE BAILS!
      Leaving us to the whims of a fruitcake & his ‘great ideas’ sidekick.
      We owe Blair nothing, while he owes us more than a few PR sessions.
      Blair can never make right all the wrong he did to this country and her people.

      As for the Tory government ‘basking in the limelight’, the sad truth is Labour would be doing exactly the same, if they had not had their sorry arses kicked out of office, by we the people.
      We the people should continue to kick out any government, of any hue, who does not do what the country and her people need.
      Fix the economy.
      Fix the education system.
      Fix the NHS.
      Fix the criminal justice system.
      Fix the immigration system.
      Fix our relationship with Europe.

  • Amber Star

    Labour polling is holding up well, as visitors to UKPR will be aware (site of Anthony Wells who is mentioned above by Mark). I think Danny Boyle’s opening ceremony triumph set the scene for confident patriotism as opposed to nasty nationalism.

    Gold medal to Danny Boyle; Labour get to bask in his reflected glory.

    Boris’s showmanship has meant he’s the Conservative who gets the Silver.

    I haven’t decided who gets Bronze; it won’t be “Call me Dave”. The so-called Curse of Cameron put him out of contention. His ‘own’ tweet of himself on the tube, looking like a fish out of water, was LOL! & definitely ended any possibility of a medal for him from the ‘people’s games’.

  • Holly

    I have found it fantastic to just watch ‘stuff’.
    No news channels, no politic programmes, no PMQ’s.
    Just sport, films, sport, stuff, sport.
    It is quite remarkable how not hearing the MP’s banging on about bugger all, & the news bods banging on about what they think is happening, actually lifts the spirit.
    Living life like a ‘normal’ bod makes the childish antics of today’s politicians come in to sharp focus, and the utter lack of calibre, makes me question, do any of them merit being elected into government.
    All trying to score points, all failing miserably.
    Will I get back my interest in politics, once the games are done?
    The fact I feel in a lighter mood, maybe not….
    But then again…
     

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