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The Tories are gearing up for the 2015 election – is Labour ready?

September 21, 2012 11:20 am

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John Clarke

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The Tories are going for the jugular and are planning a relentless assault on Ed Miliband in the run up to the next election. According to Tim Montgomerie it is the bedrock of Tory thinking on 2015. It is a pretty limited strategy which demonstrates the structural deficit at the heart Tory policy thinking. Nonetheless, it is a strategy and Labour needs to prepare for it. Character assassination is something the Tories, in particular Lynton Crosby, have proved adept at. The rightward tack of the Conservatives during the reshuffle might give them more room for manoeuvre.

While internal party management can explain most of the reshuffle moves the rightward shift will have a wider impact. In many cases the moves signal policy shifts that can be used by the Tories to define Miliband as a weak leader and metropolitan elitist. This is quite interesting in light of Lord Ashcroft’s argument that the Conservatives should not attack Miliband personally. Drawing dividing lines on policy to define Miliband and Labour could be a consequence of the reshuffle.

The most obvious battleground, as Hopi Sen wisely foresaw, will be the economy but it is not the only one available. Want Miliband to look soft on Justice matters? Why not get rid of Ken Clarke, replace him with Chris Grayling and see what happens. Want Miliband to talk more about climate change? Put a climate change sceptic in DEFRA and a politician against windfarms in the Department for Energy and Climate Change. Want Miliband to spend time defending the international aid budget? Stick Justine Greening in there to start going through spending line by line. While there are some opportunities for Labour here, particularly on climate change, there is a definite risk that Miliband could be defined by how Labour responds to this rightward shift. Mark Ferguson is right to ask do we want to be the party of the protest vote?

There are two main, and fairly obvious, ways to combat such a Tory strategy. First, the party needs to be united. If the party starts infighting then Miliband will look weak. There will be periods over the next few years when Labour’s poll ratings will fall. If sniping and briefing starts it is not going to be good for Miliband or Labour and will feed into the narrative that the Tories are trying to create. There are fault lines and landmines strewn across Labour’s path to 2015. Take your pick – friction between the two Eds, battles between Ed Balls and the unions over the pay freeze, or a flare up of the bashing of Progress.

Second, Labour’s offering at the next election has to be watertight and coherent – especially on the economy. This is easier said than done. It is very easy to veer of course in reaction to events or actions by the Government. If this is done properly people will know what a vote for Labour means for them and the country. They should be able to see this threaded throughout the policies on offer. The party is in the early stages of this and what is produced will be crucial to Labour successfully contesting the next election.

There is a certain desperation to Tory thinking but at least they know how they are going to approach 2015. Labour does not seem close to this yet. It may be inevitable after 2010’s heavy defeat or because of the party’s strong poll lead. Either way, the Labour leadership, and the wider Labour movement, needs to get its act together and show a focus and drive it has been lacking so far. It can be done but it needs to be done soon. The party needs start to imagining what it will feel like on the day after the 2015 election if we find out the Tories are in power until 2020. That should be motivation enough.

http://twitter.com/petewilson89 Pete Wilson

Good article. I think its the only thing we activists need to tell each other when we flag – do you want 5 more years of this?
- http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh
  
  We also need to fasttrack the selection process.
aracataca

It has been on the cards for ages that the character assassination of EM would be a major feature of the 2015 campaign. Another factor we may have to address is the possibility of a giveaway budget in April 2014 which may feed through into peoples’ pockets by the time of the election.IMHO there is no great disunity within the party and I do not favour any big policy announcements before the policy review has been completed as this would simply make Labour an even bigger target for the Tory Press and their friends to fire at.
- johnmclarke
  
  Thanks for comment aracataca,
  
  2014 budget will be interesting! It definitely gives them more room for manoeuvre.
  
  John
williamtheconker

There aren’t any Labour policies so what choice do the Tories have?
steven_t_green

For heaven’s sake – there’s a lot of time before 7 May 2015. Too much time for Labour to take fixed positions now that may become out of date and simply give room for us to be attacked. Oppositions have the luxury of thinking time without the pressure to respond to “events”. We are using that time, keeping our powder dry AND we’re well ahead in the polls. Now I know a lot of that is mid-term gain but we can ride it for a while yet. The next election is a challenge for us because of the need to be inventive on policy since our old redistributive approach is very constrained. There are signs of original thinking beginning – let’s be patient while it develops. What we do need to do is ramp up the projection of us as a party for all the people against the Tory bias to the rich and make that the mood music for as long as it plays well.
http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

Agreed but I do think it is impossible for the Tories to remain in power after the 2015 for plenty of reasons, even if they get slightly more votes than us.
- johnmclarke
  
  Thanks Renie,
  
  I agree it may seem difficult for them at the moment but I don’t think it’s impossible.
  
  John
https://mikestallard.virtualgallery.com/ Mike Stallard

OK So I am a Tory Troll.
Look, from the other side, all we can see is Europe. The economy is not an issue any more because the government has simply pushed it aside and has quietly agreed to increase spending and debt and the deficit. If you read John Redwood’s blog regularly, you will see that I am right. Even the BBC has noticed too now. What is the cliche? You cannot get a cigarette paper between Messrs Balls and Osborne.If you go to any right wing blog, the sheer anger about Europe is big and growing. We fear a referendum which will offer a false choice of Yes and Yes yes. We do not trust the government at all. We loathe the CAP and the lack of real democracy in our country (Europe). We loathe the secrecy and the lies and the cover-ups of the real aim which is, as we know, the United States of Europe under the unelected Kommissars. The right is totally split over Europe and UKIP are attracting a lot of very angry Conservatives. (Roger Helmer for example). Nigel Farrage got a lot of hits on U Tube for his loud attack on our Beloved President.
If we knew what the Labour party stood for, then we might even go there. At the moment, we are hopelessly divided and this will cost us the election. But right is right.
Daniel Speight

Take your pick – friction between the two Eds, battles between Ed Balls and the unions over the pay freeze, or a flare up of the bashing of Progress.

Don’t you think the briefing against Ed Miliband by Progress/Blairites deserves a mention? Maybe I just imagined Dan Hodges and friends and of course the London mayoral elections. Will the Sainsbury people manage to unite with the rest of the party?
- johnmclarke
  
  Thanks Daniel,
  
  I had that in mind when saying the party should be united. But yes, you’re right I should have added that to the list.
  
  John
http://www.facebook.com/amergin.selby Amergin Selby

First things first . Develop some policies. A National bank with retail activity only funded by the QE that is taken back because the banks did not use it take branches in every township from all the banks that we partly own without compensation. Kick out all the outsourcing and let the experienced civil service handle it. Bring altruism back into the heart of the Labour party its what was our founding principle. Either renationalise the railways gas and electricity industries , without compensation, or freeze prices for three years.F reeze petrol prices. Why not? they freeze wages why not freeze prices?
The main priority however is to win Corby and everyone capable of volunteering needs to be deployed to convince the electorate to vote Labour but to do it massively and let the cry of the nation against this monstrous government ring through the corridors of Westminster and send shivers down Tory backs.
robertcp

I do not think that Labour should be afraid of being seen as soft on justice, in favour of overseas aid and concerned about climate change. Ed Miliband has some interesting ideas and has made clear that he wants to move away from the New Labour era. This combined with an amazingly stupid Tory Party is why Labour is about ten points ahead in the polls, which is where an opposition party should be at the mid-term point of a Parliament.
http://www.facebook.com/rumana.begum.560 Elizabeth Cooper

Say no to police cuts, NHS cuts, Nurses and school teacher cuts, say no to closing down sure start centres, say no to tuition fee rises, increased taxes from the poor and vunerable. Say yes to one Equal nation, decreasing college/tuition fees, protecting the elderley and children, decreasing petrol prices, utility bills, food bills, creating futures for youngsters leaving schools with no qualifications or few. Tories Have led us into the worst double dip recession since the war, people are out of work due to Outrageous, dispicable cuts, which isnt getting our economy moving again in fact its gotton worse under this tory goverment, when the medicine isnt right, we change the medicine, we need to change the doctor aswell and thats what this country needs to do!! Vote to LABOUR – ED MILLIBAND 2015
http://www.facebook.com/rumana.begum.560 Elizabeth Cooper

YES to LABOUR – ED MILLIBAND

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