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Ed Miliband has stopped being a polling liability – now he needs to make himself an electoral asset

October 7, 2012 12:49 pm

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Before last week’s conference many in the party were agonising over Ed Miliband’s leadership polling. I know I was. No amount of
reassurance/spin from the party could convince me otherwise. Whilst Labour was polling well, Ed was personally polling badly. The Tories were turning their guns on him, now that his place as leader was settled. They had feared targeting him earlier for fear of destabilising him further. Rather a hobbled leader than a fresh, new, dangerous opponent, they thought. Now he was sure, they had no such qualms. Open season on Ed Miliband was about to begin.

But last Tuesday, things changed. Post-speech Miliband wasn’t just clinging on, he was comfortable. He wasn’t just notionally the leader of the party, he was out there at its head, driving the whole movement forward. His tanks were on Cameron’s lawn, reclaiming the centre ground, but without conceding that the centre ground requires the wholesale purchase of Tory ideas on the economy, welfare or the role of the state. It was a speech praised by Len McCluskey and the Daily Mail, Fraser Nelson and Owen Jones. It was the pinnacle of his leadership thus far.

But a game changer? As I’ve said already – we won’t know that for weeks yet. But what the early polls suggest is that it is Miliband,
rather than Labour, who got a poll bump from conference. That’s unsurprising. That was the purpose of conference after all. Labours
polling wasn’t the problem – Miliband’s polling was. Today’s Opinium polling in the Observer suggests some positive improvement for Miliband:

“Ed Miliband enjoyed a personal mini-bounce following his successful speech at Labour conference and his party stretched its lead to 11 points over the Conservatives.

The opposition leader’s approval rating shot from 23% of likely voters before the speech to 28%, according to the latest Observer/Opinium poll.”

All good news, if sustained and built on. But that will only happen if Miliband remains on the front foot and learns from what worked last week. He’s personable, intelligent, thoughtful and not without bravery. He’s not afraid to make tough arguments or fight difficult battles. And sure, he’s Wonky McWonk-Wonk, and he needs to remember to “speak human” (he did on Tuesday, which was part of the success). But people seem to trust him – and that’s political golddust at the moment.

So in the coming weeks Labour needs to keep Ed Miliband in the spotlight. He needs to flesh out what One Nation Labour would look
like in policy terms. It’s clearly based on Blue Labour – a strong set of values but with too much waffle and not enough policy – so he will need to show that deep thinking can provide answers as well as slogans.

But most of all, Ed Miliband can’t be content with not being a drag on Labour’s polling. He has a duty as leader to be an asset. The British people are crying out for someone to stand up for them, and provide some answers as to how we steer the country through tough times. His speech last week suggested he understands that.

I feared that the Ed Mili life story speech would backfire. I thought it lacked narrative and vision. I was wrong. One Nation gave it a
backbone and a cut through that I didn’t see coming. So now, as the Tories play divide and rule in Birmingham – lets double down on being the party of unity and cohesion. And let’s double down on Ed Miliband too. Because now he’s stopped being a liability, he needs to make the next step – and become an asset.*

* – fundraising would be a good place to start – more donations in the next quarter would show that people are enthusiastic about Labour again, and willing to back him…

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  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZPXYLRVP4XOIGGDJWAL6HUO7U4 David

    Interesting analysis, though time will tell if the Conservative strategists agree with it (and this will be identifiable from a renewed focus on negative personal attacks), and if they do, then how “solid” this new image is.

    If it can such survive critical examination, then my respect will grow significantly: the next electoral campaign from this mid-term point is a marathon, not a sprint, but joining the dots from 2010 to 2012 might even allow us to draw some confidence towards a 2015 election.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZPXYLRVP4XOIGGDJWAL6HUO7U4 David

    Interesting analysis, though time will tell if the Conservative strategists agree with it (and this will be identifiable from a renewed focus on negative personal attacks), and if they do, then how “solid” this new image is.

    If it can such survive critical examination, then my respect will grow significantly: the next electoral campaign from this mid-term point is a marathon, not a sprint, but joining the dots from 2010 to 2012 might even allow us to draw some confidence towards a 2015 election.

  • Amber_Star

    Hague says Disraeli was a Conservative; Ed is not Disraeli. This part of Hague’s speech was as lame as a three legged dog with a sprained ankle. One down, two to go (Boris & Cameron).

  • Brumanuensis
  • rekrab

    I think most would agree that one good speech doesn’t make a PM and any future election will be won on the grounds of a workable economic plan.Osborne’s will miss his deficit reduction targets and there is another 16Bn worth of cuts to come, for what it’s worth, I think labour needs to come forward with a credible alternative plan that is costed and meets a growth strategy for today.It’s no good saying we’ll wait until 2015 to put a plan together, it’s far to important and if labour can put a plan forward now and shake off all those supposedly weak calls against it’s economic credibility, then 2015 or nearer will be more readily available.  

  • Jeremy_Preece

    Mark. This article is pretty spot on, and if anyone is sad enough to want to trawl back through the last year or so, you will see that it is pretty much exactly whay most of my comment have been saying. Firslty the doubts and the sheer frustration at the lack of ideas, and then the silence where a clear voice was needed.

    Yes, the personal rating of Ed M was Labour’s biggest problem. Only just over a week ago yougov showed 37% saying that Caeron and the Tories were appauling, but that they rated Ed as worse. So the raisng of Ed’s profile is exactly what is needed.

    Like you I say that this is a first step and that more fleshing out and drilling down into real policy ideas are now needed. This momentum must be kept up.

    While “One Nation” is a very good title to fight under, we need to know what the need to make difficult decisions means and how much less cuts there will be under Labour than Tory. Cameron is clearly going for much more and deeper cutting. Economically this austerity (which has never worked in history) makes as much sense as eating yourself.

    Now we must turn to Cameron and tell him that when he was in opposition, his polices included matching Labour’s spending, and Osborne went on the attack over any type of control over banking.

    • rekrab

      Jeremy, I think your wrong on your polling thoughts, government needs to be collective, not some singular idea that it’s all about two leaders.I’d like to see some polls matching Osborne with Balls and Cabinet ministers against shadow cabinet ministers.Who has the best ideas in all departments and which ideas are more likely to help the nation the most.      

      • Jeremy_Preece

        I think that you do not quite understand what I am saying. I have said all along that the huge issue with Ed M has been that there has been a total lack of policy and that whenever we criticise the Tories, Labour is unable to answer the question “what would Labour do about it?” and then it is game over as we don’t have an answer.
        I would also agree with your comments above about needing to have an economic alternative, and that we actually have nothing. To say that the cuts are too deep and too fast is one thing, but we need to say what cuts Labour means and which are wrong. We need also to see if there is not a better alternative to austerity. since austerity has never actually worked in the past and clearly isn’t going to work now.
        That is why I said that last week we was a beginning, but there needs to be much more detail and credible alternative plan.
         
        However, when people vote they won’t vote for a party if the leader is not up to the job. Remember that in the British system it is the PM who decides whether or not to go to war. It is the PM who has to make quick decisions when unforseen situations arise and the government has to react. Yes charisma and the ability to get across the message of what the party and it leader is all about is very important. He or she needs to let the ordinary person know what they stand for and why voting for them will make a difference to their lives.
        If, as a week or so ago, the electorate think that the Labour leader is so bad that a lying failing Tory leader is not so bad, then we are in real trouble. I stand by that.

        It is also not a simple either or situation. You can’t have just communication skills and the ability to sell a message if you don’t have anything to say. Equally you can’t let the government blame the last government for things that were not its fault, for example the whole world wide recession and banking crisis, and allows the mantra that it is all Labour’s fault to go unchallenged. And so to many the Tory lie is believed that 1. The banking crisis world wide was the fault of Labour and 2. Had the Tories been in power (who are better with the economy) then we wouldn’t be in the same situation. Both of these assumptions are wrong, especially the second, but I belive that weak leadership allowed them to get into the public arena.  

      • Jeremy_Preece

        I think that you do not quite understand what I am saying. I have said all along that the huge issue with Ed M has been that there has been a total lack of policy and that whenever we criticise the Tories, Labour is unable to answer the question “what would Labour do about it?” and then it is game over as we don’t have an answer.
        I would also agree with your comments above about needing to have an economic alternative, and that we actually have nothing. To say that the cuts are too deep and too fast is one thing, but we need to say what cuts Labour means and which are wrong. We need also to see if there is not a better alternative to austerity. since austerity has never actually worked in the past and clearly isn’t going to work now.
        That is why I said that last week we was a beginning, but there needs to be much more detail and credible alternative plan.
         
        However, when people vote they won’t vote for a party if the leader is not up to the job. Remember that in the British system it is the PM who decides whether or not to go to war. It is the PM who has to make quick decisions when unforseen situations arise and the government has to react. Yes charisma and the ability to get across the message of what the party and it leader is all about is very important. He or she needs to let the ordinary person know what they stand for and why voting for them will make a difference to their lives.
        If, as a week or so ago, the electorate think that the Labour leader is so bad that a lying failing Tory leader is not so bad, then we are in real trouble. I stand by that.

        It is also not a simple either or situation. You can’t have just communication skills and the ability to sell a message if you don’t have anything to say. Equally you can’t let the government blame the last government for things that were not its fault, for example the whole world wide recession and banking crisis, and allows the mantra that it is all Labour’s fault to go unchallenged. And so to many the Tory lie is believed that 1. The banking crisis world wide was the fault of Labour and 2. Had the Tories been in power (who are better with the economy) then we wouldn’t be in the same situation. Both of these assumptions are wrong, especially the second, but I belive that weak leadership allowed them to get into the public arena.  

      • Jeremy_Preece

        I think that you do not quite understand what I am saying. I have said all along that the huge issue with Ed M has been that there has been a total lack of policy and that whenever we criticise the Tories, Labour is unable to answer the question “what would Labour do about it?” and then it is game over as we don’t have an answer.
        I would also agree with your comments above about needing to have an economic alternative, and that we actually have nothing. To say that the cuts are too deep and too fast is one thing, but we need to say what cuts Labour means and which are wrong. We need also to see if there is not a better alternative to austerity. since austerity has never actually worked in the past and clearly isn’t going to work now.
        That is why I said that last week we was a beginning, but there needs to be much more detail and credible alternative plan.
         
        However, when people vote they won’t vote for a party if the leader is not up to the job. Remember that in the British system it is the PM who decides whether or not to go to war. It is the PM who has to make quick decisions when unforseen situations arise and the government has to react. Yes charisma and the ability to get across the message of what the party and it leader is all about is very important. He or she needs to let the ordinary person know what they stand for and why voting for them will make a difference to their lives.
        If, as a week or so ago, the electorate think that the Labour leader is so bad that a lying failing Tory leader is not so bad, then we are in real trouble. I stand by that.

        It is also not a simple either or situation. You can’t have just communication skills and the ability to sell a message if you don’t have anything to say. Equally you can’t let the government blame the last government for things that were not its fault, for example the whole world wide recession and banking crisis, and allows the mantra that it is all Labour’s fault to go unchallenged. And so to many the Tory lie is believed that 1. The banking crisis world wide was the fault of Labour and 2. Had the Tories been in power (who are better with the economy) then we wouldn’t be in the same situation. Both of these assumptions are wrong, especially the second, but I belive that weak leadership allowed them to get into the public arena.  

        • rekrab

          Jeremy, can I point out politely that Robin Cook secured the right of the parliament to vote on whether we go to war or not.May I also say that the chancellor delivers the budget, although the PM is the first chancellor, cabinet minister do have responsibility for their departments.There’s more there we’d agree on and these are no ordinary times.

  • rekrab

    Ed, needs to be more productive at PMQ’s, when asking a question about the state of the nation whether it’s education, employment, housing, Europe, economics and other worldly events, Ed should put forward a proposal from labour on the issue and ask if Cameron accepts the alternative.

  • Brumanuensis

    Another thought: Ed has done it. By ‘it’, I mean he has established who he is, publicly. He’s now done the ‘life story’ speech. Excellent, although not to my taste.

    So from now on (2013, ’14) it has to be all about policy. No more personalisation; that stuff gets ‘old’ quickly.

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