Election results liveblog – By-elections, Bristol Mayor and PCCs

November 15, 2012 10:00 pm

19.34: And now the liveblog is closed. Goodnight everyone – thanks for sticking with us.

19.20: Verdict - Well that was an eventful 21 and a half hours – or at least more eventful than an election with absolutely atrocious turnout might have been expected to be. On the whole the results are good for Labour – topping the national vote share with a comfortable lead over the Tories is not to be sniffed at. And it’s even more pleasing when there were no PCC elections in either London or Scotland, two of the party’s strongest areas. Then of course there’s the significant win in Corby (a 12.8% Tory to Labour swing), and two safely retained Westminster seats which is more than enough to suggest Labour is capable of a majority nationally. Losses to independents and particularly the loss of the Bristol Mayorality will put a dampener on things, but the party will be pleased – justifiably – with their work.

The Tories are already trying to spin themselves out of trouble claiming that it is more important that they have won more PCC posts than Labour, despite the fact that all police areas are of different sizes. Labour has won the national vote, comfortably, no amount of spin will get them out of that. And despite their attempts to spin Corby, there’s really no getting away from how bad that was for them. it wasn’t a mid-term blip – Corby will stay Labour in 2015.

And the Lib Dems. A disaster. Not one PCC, but that’s no surprise. But coming last in Sheffield and South Yorkshire, getting less votes than spoiled ballots in Coventry and racking up 1.7% in an Oldham council ward (where they once ran the council) shows the scale of their decline. In national vote they finished 5th – their latest electoral disaster.

Independents may well be the biggest winners today. 12 Independent PCC shows that low turnout and an anti-politics sentiment is a challenge to all parties. That’s a lesson for Bristol too. And seemingly some Lib Dems can only get elected now if they drop the toxic yellow badge.

Similarly UKIP will be feeling chipper today, with a higher vote share than the Lib Dems – a potential sea change ahead of 2015. A good UKIP vote share combined with a Lib Dem slump is good for Labour.

But the story that will endure? It’s not Labour’s momentum. Unfortunately it’s the turnout.

These elections were a mistake. but now much of the country has to live with the results. I only hope that the PCC roles are less farcical than the elections. 

19.00: As the day draws to a close, it looks like the Lib Dems are going to finish 5th in the national vote share behind Labour, the Tories, Independents and UKIP…and with only one result left to call (Devon and Cornwall) it’s nearly time for us to call it a night.

17.57: Have the Lib Dems given up trying to spin their way out of trouble? I ask, because here’s what they told Adam Boulton:

LibDems say their 2 candidates who did best Bristol Mayor and N Wales PCC ran as independents

So they’re now admitting that their party is toxic and candidates can only win by running away from Clegg’s yellow peril…slow.hand.clap.

17.54: Out of interest – here are the seats that would go Labour at a General Election with the same 12.8% swing from the Tories that Labour received in Corby. Can you spot any MPs who should be worried – tweet them at us. Here’s the list – all 123 of them:

ABERCONWY
AMBER VALLEY
BATTERSEA
BEDFORD
BEXLEYHEATH & CRAYFORD
BLACKPOOL NORTH & CLEVELEYS
BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTH
BRIGG & GOOLE
BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN
BRISTOL NORTH WEST
BROMSGROVE
BROXTOWE
BURTON
BURY NORTH
CALDER VALLEY
CAMBORNE & REDRUTH
CANNOCK CHASE
CARDIFF NORTH
CARLISLE
CARMARTHEN WEST & SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE
CHATHAM & AYLESFORD
CHIPPING BARNET
CITY OF CHESTER
CLEETHORPES
CLWYD WEST
COLNE VALLEY
CRAWLEY
CREWE & NANTWICH
CROYDON CENTRAL
DARTFORD
DEWSBURY
DOVER
DUDLEY SOUTH
DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE & TWEEDDALE (W)
EALING CENTRAL & ACTON
ELMET & ROTHWELL
ENFIELD NORTH
ENFIELD SOUTHGATE
EREWASH
FILTON & BRADLEY STOKE
FINCHLEY & GOLDERS GREEN
FOREST OF DEAN
GILLINGHAM & RAINHAM
GLOUCESTER
GRAVESHAM
GREAT YARMOUTH
HALESOWEN & ROWLEY REGIS
HARLOW
HARROW EAST
HASTINGS & RYE
HENDON
HEXHAM
HIGH PEAK
HOVE
ILFORD NORTH
IPSWICH
KEIGHLEY
KENSINGTON
KETTERING
KINGSWOOD
LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD
LINCOLN
LOUGHBOROUGH
MID DERBYSHIRE
MILTON KEYNES NORTH
MILTON KEYNES SOUTH
MONMOUTH
MORECAMBE & LUNESDALE
NORTH EAST SOMERSET
NORTH SWINDON
NORTH WARWICKSHIRE
NORTH WEST LEICESTERSHIRE
NORTHAMPTON NORTH
NORTHAMPTON SOUTH
NORWICH NORTH
NUNEATON
PENDLE
PETERBOROUGH
PLYMOUTH SUTTON & DEVONPORT
PORTSMOUTH NORTH
PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE
PUDSEY
PUTNEY
READING EAST
READING WEST
REDDITCH
ROCHESTER & STROOD
ROSSENDALE DARWEN
RUGBY
SCARBOROUGH & WHITBY
SELBY & AINSTY
SHERWOOD
SHIPLEY
SHREWSBURY & ATCHAM
SITTINGBOURNE & SHEPPEY
SOUTH BASILDON & EAST THURROCK
SOUTH DERBYSHIRE
SOUTH DORSET
SOUTH RIBBLE
SOUTH SWINDON
SOUTH THANET
ST ALBANS
STAFFORD
STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS
STEVENAGE
STOCKTONSOUTH
STOURBRIDGE
STROUD
TAMWORTH
THE WREKIN
THURROCK
UXBRIDGE & SOUTH RUISLIP
VALE OF GLAMORGAN
WARRINGTON SOUTH
WARWICK & LEAMINGTON
WATFORD
WAVENEY
WEAVER VALE
WELLINGBOROUGH
WIRRAL WEST
WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH WEST
WORCESTER
WYRE FOREST

17.20: Prescott has lost in Humberside. After it went to 2nd preferences it always looked like too big a task. Now watch the Tories pretend this was a safe Labour area. It isn’t.

17.04: Tweet of the day comes from Tom Watson.

Meoooowwww

17.00: So Labour will top the vote share charts tonight, but I’m not sure how much you can translate today into a general election result. Labour winning is good of course (without Scotland and London), but with 20%+ going to the Independents, it’s hard to take too many lessons from it. Except for the Lib Dems though, who will be lucky to hit 8%.

16.45: Here’s how we think the parties will rank in terms of national vote share for the PCC elections:

1st Labour

2nd Indies

3rd Tories

4th UKIP vs Lib Dem fight

And there won’t be a huge vote share difference between 1st and 3rd…

16.44: Seemingly the Tories have lost in Avon and Dorset too.

16.43: With 26 PCC results in here’s how things stand – 10 Labour, 9 Tories and 7 Independents (including in Hampshire, where former Tory Minister Michael Mates has just lost).

16.28: Surely we must be nearly finished now? Not yet my friends, not yet…

16.25: Labour has had some bloody noses from Independents today, but the Tories could be about to get two huge defeats from indies, in Kent and Surrey. Keep an eye on them.

16.18: Trafford is a flagship Tory council and one of few toeholds for the blues in the North. Today they lost it in the PCC election – comfortably. Labour got 41% of the vote to just 25% for the Tories.

16.08: Ten hours after we told you that Labour had lost the Bristol Mayoral race – it’s confirmed. Independent (ex-Lib Dem) George Ferguson is Bristol’s first directly elected Mayor. On a personal level I’m gutted – he’s a good guy and a good candidate. I am sure we’ll be seeing him again.

15.39: A hilarious tweet from the Lib Dem Press Office (now deleted). It said “Today shows that voters know that ultimately Labour can’t be trusted, having messed up the economy so badly. #labourfail”. Here’s the image:

The tweet came just moments after the Lib Dems failed to save their deposit in Corby despite two recounts…

15.29: Meanwhile in Humberside, John Prescott has a lead of aprox 3800 going into the second round. It’s going to be tight.

15.28: The result in Corby was Labour: 17,267, Conservative: 9,476, UKIP: 5,108, Lib Dems: 1,770..The first Labour gain from the Tories in a by-election for 15 years.

15.25: “The road to Downing Street runs through Corby” says new MP Andy Sawford – and with a swing of 12.8% from the Tories to Labour. That’s pretty big.

15.23: Andy Sawford wins the Corby election by over 7500.

15.18: Congratulations to Labour’s newest MP – Andy Sawford. That’s a LABOUR GAIN

15.06: Lancashire is Labour country – as we take the PCC seat with a majority of 6,000. Congratulations Clive Grunshaw.

15.04: BBC suggesting Labour has won by 8,000 votes in Corby, which matches what we’ve heard in the last hour. But watch the swing…

15.02: Labour may have won in every single district in the Greater Manchester PCC vote

14.59: Perhaps Olly Martins could send local MP Nadine Dorries a thank you card when she gets back from the outback…

14.58: Labour’s Olly Martins wins the PCC election in Bedfordshire. Sensational result – and not one that many were predicting.

14.54: Lib Dems now calling for a 2nd recount in Corby to save their deposit. We know they’re skint, but this is ridiculous…

14.53: Rumour has it spoilt ballot papers beat the Lib Dems in Coventry…(we really are laughing now).

14.52 Labour won the Wirrall South by-election with a 17.6% swing in 1997 (see 13.40). You might want to remember than number in a few moments.

14.44: The Lib Dems are asking for a recount in Corby to try and save their deposit. I’m not laughing. Honest.

14.43: Result imminent in Corby, Sky News just reported: “Sky News: “The road to Downing Street runs through Corby, and Ed Miliband is set for a big result.””

14.32: Over to Nick Clegg’s back yard, in both Sheffield and South Yorkshire the Lib Dems came last. LAST. Awkward…

14.30: Some surprisingly strong results for Independents in the PCC elections. Has the anti-politics mood collided with a lack of resources for PCC campaigns and low turnout to make things tough for all of the major parties? It certainly looks that way so far – and tactical second choice voting comes into play too.

14.18: First really disappointing PCC result for Labour – as Tal Michael loses out to Independent in North Wales. We were not expecting that…

14.13: Only predominantly Tory East Riding left to count in Humberside – the first round result is Prescott 21,813, Ind Paul Davison 14,140, UKIP Godfrey Bloom 12,487, Tory Matthew Grove 10,961. It’s going to be tough for John Prescott to win if he’s relying on UKIP and Tory 2nd preferences.

14.10: Whilst Grant Shapps has been trying to spin the Corby result, perhaps he should pay closer attention to the PCC result in his county of Hertfordshire – with its 11 Tory seats. In the final round Labour finished with around 40% to the winning Tory vote of around 60%. Low turnout has an effect, but that’s an inroad in True Blue Tory heartlands…

14.08: Labour wins the PCC race in South Yorkshire, with 51.3% of the vote – congratulations to Shaun Wright.

14.01: Now the Lib Dems have turned on the PCC elections after their low turnout. Lib Dem President Tim Farron is quoted as telling Radio 4:

It’s very hard for anybody, whoever gets elected, in Cumbria for example today, will probably have got 7 or 8% maximum of the popular vote, of the potential vote, and that does mean so it does mean their legitimacy is going to be compromised.

He went on to say “We have got to give this role a chance a chance”, but reading between the lines…

13.50: Remember what we said about the Tories potentially losing in West Mercia? Here’s where we are at the moment with that count: Ind 37477, Con 37021, Lab 27744. That’s not looking like a Tory win…

13.44: Lets take a look at how well Labour will ACTUALLY need to do to be pleased with the Corby result (aside from the fact that a win is a win). The Last seat Labour won from the Tories in a by-election was February 1997, when Labour took Wirral South with a 17.6% from the Tories. That was an election that the Labour Party spent resources on that are simply unavilable today – and with a far more unpopular government than the current one.

If Labour gets anywhere near that kind of swing, then Labour will be delighted. But as I noted at 13.20, anything over 5% would indicate a 2015 Labour majority.

13.29: We have our first two Labour PCCs. Vera Baird has won in Northumbria and Jane Kennedy was victorious on Merseyside. Neither are surprising results, but it’s good to have some PCC results at last.

13.20: The Tory spin on Corby is getting hysterical. Grant Shapps is arguing that Labour will need a 11,000 majority to look like a party that’s ready to win the next election. Labour needs a 5% swing to suggest a majority in 2015 – so this suggests the Tories believe Labour will far surpass that. Meanwhile Tory MP Alok Sharma says Labour winning in Corby would be a “standard result”. Whatever you say Alok…

13.15: Things are looking nip and tuck between Labour and the Tories in the Bedfordshire PCC race. Labour’s Olly Martins has 27947 votes and the Tory candidate Jas Parmar has 26226 votes as we head into the second round.

12.40: Bristol Mayoral race is going to second preferences – after the first round it was George Ferguson 31321 Marvin Rees 25896. It’s unlikely Rees can turn that around on 2nd preferences I’d have thought.

12.26: On PCC results – someone in the know on the West Mercia result tells us that it’s possible that the Tories have lost West Mercia (which they were expected to win) to an Independent. Humberside, where John prescott is the candidate, looks too close to call at this stage.

12.12: We’re expecting the first PCC count of today to record a comfortable Labour win in Merseyside.

12.10: What size majority in Corby? My best guess would be 4,000.

11.25: You thought I’d fallen asleep again didn’t you? Never fear, I’m still here. And a Labour source contacts us to say the following about Corby:

“We are increasingly optimistic about a good win in Corby. Turnout is looking as if it will be 45% and the Tory and Lib Dem vote is very weak.”

09.25: If the Tories will be embarrassed at losing their deposit in Manchester Central (06.40), just think how Oldham Lib Dems must feel. In a council by-election (Failsworth West ward), the Lib Dem candidate picke up just 26 votes. Or 1.7% of the total vote.

Not so long ago Oldham was a target area for the Lib Dems…

08.46: Yvette Cooper has gone on the offensive over the PCC election turnout:

“As the Government’s flagship police reform policy, these Police and Crime Commissioner elections have been a complete shambles.

“We warned the Government repeatedly that they had the wrong approach and that turnout would be low. Theresa May and David Cameron didn’t listen and it is shocking that they have spent £100m on these elections rather than on 3,000 police constables instead.

“The Electoral Reform Society has described the Government’s handling of these elections as a ‘comedy of errors’.

“Time and again on the doorstep people told us either they didn’t have enough information, didn’t know the elections were happening, didn’t support them or didn’t want to go out in the dark to vote.

“Theresa May and David Cameron need to explain why they have spent so much money on elections that have had such low public support, why they provided so little public information and why they chose to hold elections in November too.”

07.41: A troubling thought. Labour’s candidate in the Northamptonshire PCC election was suspended after it became clear that he was ineligible to stand. Turnout is low in Northamptonshire – as elsewhere – but high in the Corby constituency, where Labour should win well. Is it possible that a Labour vote in Corby could drag up the performance of the now suspended ex-Labour candidate Lee Barron?

If Lee Barron is elected as PCC, it will put the cherry on the farce cake. Because that would trigger a PCC by-election. Can you imagine how low the turnout would be for that?

07.12: The TransAtlantic spin job has begun, as Louise Mensch tries to take the blame for Labour’s probable win in Corby, tweeting:

Election result will not be a verdict on either Christine, or the Conservatives, but only on the decision I took to step down mid-term.

and then,

Christine and her team did an incredible job in the most difficult possible circumstances. I know she will one day make a wonderful MP.

But that one day won’t be today.

07.04: Meanwhile, in another part of the country (where we once lost to a monkey) – they’re moving away from a mayoral system. Voters in Hartlepool voted last night to abolish the post of mayor.

06.55: Elsewhere the only PCC election to be counted during the night was Wiltshire, which was somewhat unsurprisingly won by the Tories.

06.50: So that’s the good news. Unfortunately, the bad news comes from Bristol. Local sources indicated to us during the night that the Tory vote has collapsed, which looks likely to have handed victory to the Independent (former Lib Dem) candidate George Ferguson. Labour’s Marvin Rees will finish a strong second – but Ferguson’s support is enough that he may even win on first preferences….

Counting won’t begin until later today – but if our source in Bristol is right, we should already be considering Bristol to be the latest in a long line of independents elected as local mayors.

06.40: As it’s early, I sense you’ll want the good news first. Well – as we thought would be the case – Labour held Manchester Central and Cardiff South.

Manchester – Lucy Powell was elected with 11,507 votes, a swing away from the Liberal Democrats of 16.77% – and the Tories lost their deposit. A good night all round, except turnout was as low as expected. At 18.16% it was the lowest in a by-election since the second world war.

Cardiff – turnout in Cardiff was better than Manchester (25.65%) although still low. The swing from the Tories to Labour was 8.41% – which bodes well for the Corby result later today. Labour’s Stephen Doughty retained the seat with 9,193 votes.

06.29: Morning everyone – today’s the day when we get the vast majority of the election results, PCCs, Corby and the Bristol Mayor. But first – do you want the good news or the bad news?

02.03: Sources in Manchester suggest Labour could have picked up 65% of the vote in Manchester Central. And on that note – I’m off to bed…

01.58: But before I go – this tweet from Manchester Councillor Kev Peel gives an indication of what you should expect from Manchester Central. Labour is going to win big there – and I think I can say with huge confidence that Lucy Powell will be a Labour MP when I return here in a few short hours. Don’t expect a high turnout though – in the Greater Manchester PCC vote, the turnout is just 13.46%…

And in the Manchester by-election, it’s possible the Tories have lost their deposit…

01.55: The flow of information from around the counts and verifications has slowed to a trickle, and with the prospect of getting much in the way of results before 4am – and a full day’s liveblogging ahead of me tomorrow – I’m afraid it’s time for me to go to bed (briefly). I’ll be back by 7 to fill you in on the results from overnight and anything else that might be worth noting ahead of tomorrow’s counts.

Night everyone. I’ll be back…

01.39: You know it’s not the most riveting night of election action when even your humble liveblogger is starting to flag before we ht the 2am mark…

01.24: As for Corby – the town part of the constituency looks strong for Labour. The result (and hopefully the size of the Labour majority) will depend on the turnout in the rural part…

01.20: Over the last hour I did manage to do a quick ring around to try and work out what turnout might be in the PCC elections. It’s worse than I thought – probable turnout seems to be within a few points of 15% either way. I’d be absolutely astonished if turnout is above 20% in many places at all. Theresa May will have questions to answer…

o1.11: We’re back. What happened while we were away…very little. Seemingly verification is taking far longer around the country than we might expect – except in Manchester where we may get a result slightly earlier than the 4am we originally thought. Here’s hoping…

23.38: Liveblog fans, it’s clear that very little is going to happen between now and 1, so I”ll be back nearer then. But this ain’t over – I’ll be back at 1 for results in Manchester and Cardiff, and again from 9am tomorrow right through until Friday evening with the rest of the results.

Stick with us, it’s going to be great. And long.

23.30: Well spotted people – if elected Lucy Powell will be the first female LABOUR MP for Manchester. Apologies for the confusion. Still remarkable though.

23.11: Incidentally, the ThisIsBristol website are claiming they carried out an “Exit Poll” that shows George Ferguson ahead. Voodoo poll more like. 100 people in just 4 polling stations across a city the size of Bristol does not an exit poll make…

23.08: And what of Bristol, where the city is looking to elect it’s first mayor. Labour’s candidate Marvin Rees is one of the favourites, but in an election where turnout is going to be low (25-30%) second preferences may be important. And there’s the wild card of Independent (former Lib Dem) George Ferguson. This is likely to be the closest of the races we’ve discussed so far.

22.45: Incidentally, all of Labour’s by-election candidates today are Labour and Co-op candidates…

22.43: And then there’s Cardiff South – the first election we’re expecting to be called tonight. Speaking to someone on the Labour campaign in South Wales a few hours ago, the feeling was that Labour should be safe there, but turnout would be poor.

22.31: And of course if Labour’s Lucy Powell is elected in Manchester Central, she will become that great city’s first female MP.

22.27: Now let’s turn our attention to Manchester Central – which unlike Corby should give us a result tonight. It’s considered a safe Labour seat, and despite the turnout there (which is slow, to say the least), there’s little to no expectation that will change. If I were CNN (which I’m not, but bear with me friends, the US election was just last week) I’d be projecting a Labour win in Manchester, slotting it into the big map of Britain and going to bed. But alas I’m not CNN, and so I’ll be doing my level best to stay up and bring you the official result there. It’s due at 4am, and Labour looks likely to pick up over 50% of the vote.

22.15: An interesting story from tonight – Northamptonshire County council turned off the lights to save money – so Labour activists (including several MPs) were canvassing by torch in the final hours of the campaign. Austerity Britain eh?

22.12: Let’s start in Corby, which is most likely to garner the biggest chunk of the headlines and has therefore received most of the attention from the party. IF Labour wins it (which seems overwhelmingly likely), then it would be the first Westminster “Labour Gain” under Ed Miliband.

In Corby, as our Labour source said earlier, turnout is over 40%. A 2,000 majority would be good, especially on a reduced turnout (bear in mind Louise Mensch had a smaller majority than that on general election turnout). Labour people should be looking for a larger majority (perhaps in the 4-6k range), but what’s most important is the swing to Labour. If it’s over 5%, then that’s a swing that if delivered nationally would put Ed Miliband in Downing Street.

22.06: There are a remarkable number of you reading this on a Thursday night, which – may I remind you – is a school night. To reward your dedication to the liveblog, here’s some more of the information that we’re hearing about the upcoming results….

22.05: And as polls close we get our first indication of how the Labour Party thinks some of these elections will play out. A Labour source tells us that:

“We are cautiously optimistic about Corby. Turnout will be over 40% with at least 250 activists on the ground. In Manchester and Cardiff turnout will be low but we should be ok.”

Having been in Corby earlier today, I’m fairly sure the party can be more than cautiously optimistic about that one.

22.00: Evening everyone. The polls have closed across England and Wales in the PCC elections (of which more later), and in three Westminster by-elections (Manchester Central, Cardiff South and Corby) – and in the Bristol Mayoral election. We’ll be here throughout the night tonight when we’re expecting the following results, at the following times:

Cardiff South – 1am

Manchester Central – 4am

Wiltshire (PCC) – 4am

Once those are out of the way, I’ll be off to bed (briefly) before returning with the results from the other elections throughout the day tomorrow.

  • http://twitter.com/KamBharath Kam Bharath

    Interesting tweet >>
    Les Reid ‏@Lesreidpolitics
    Instructions in @WarksPCCElects booths misleading. Imply 2 votes REQUIRED or vote won’t count @FraserPithie @jamesplaskitt10@ballronald47

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Graeme-Hancocks/1156294498 Graeme Hancocks

    Good luck! Although not a party member (more a critical friend of
    Labour, with emphasis on friend) I helped at Bradford West by election
    last March which was not a good experience. Hope tonight is VERY
    different. Fingers crossed!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001102865655 John Ruddy

    Although it would be a gain, it will in reality be balancing out the loss of Bradford West.

  • jaime taurosangastre candelas

    And of course if Labour’s Lucy Powell is elected in Manchester Central, she will become that great city’s first female MP

    I am amazed and appalled that should be the case, 95 years after women got the vote, and that in itself was 100 years too late. Just for that reason, I very much hope she wins.

    • Brumanuensis

      Cheers to that, Jaime.

  • Brumanuensis

    Just a technical note:

    Figures to beat for each constituency:

    Cardiff South and Penarth – 38.9%

    Corby – 38.6%

    Manchester Central – 52.7%

    Local report from Birmingham: I voted this evening in Ladywood, where I was told that turnout had been 2% of the ward, at that polling station. Multiply by about 14 and that gives us a figure in the mid-teens. ‘Not bad for November’ as the lady at the desk put it.

  • Brumanuensis

    Fun fact: this is the first by-election in Cardiff since 1942. The last one was a bit of a landslide:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardiff_East_by-election,_1942

  • Brumanuensis

    That Bristol exit poll reminds me of the exit polls I used to see for Student Union positions when I was at university. No more scientific in all likelihood.

  • http://twitter.com/Ceilidhann Kayleigh Anne

    So if this is CNN, does that make Mark Wolf Blitzer or Anderson Cooper? (Asking the tough political questions tonight).

    Given that the PCC election turnout is expected to be embarrassingly low, how much is it costing the government, and how many police services could be funded by it? There’s Labour’s next campaign right there.

    The Bristol “exit poll” also makes me yearn for Nate Silver.

    • Brumanuensis

      We need this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irGBz5HUpWM

      ‘This just in. We can project that the battleground seat of Cardiff South will be won by Labour, with 26% of precincts reporting. That keeps Labour’s tally in the electoral college at 257, with 326 needed to win. Back to you Anderson, but we’ll have more soon on this breaking news’.

      Incidentally, ‘Wolf Blitzer’ is such an awesome name. It sounds like a comic-book super-villain or some sort of SS Colonel in a bad war film.

  • http://twitter.com/220_d_92_20 David Boothroyd

    Sorry but Lucy Powell won’t be the first woman MP from Manchester. Dame Florence Horsbrugh and Eveline Hill share that honour, both having been elected in 1950 (representing Moss Side and Wythenshawe respectively). She will be the first Labour woman MP for a Manchester seat

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Graeme-Hancocks/1156294498 Graeme Hancocks

    Tonight in Cardiff South looks less than 30%.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Graeme-Hancocks/1156294498 Graeme Hancocks

    That should have been turnout not tonight! Perhaps time for bed and catch results in morning!

  • Brumanuensis

    Anyone else here because they’re having withdrawal symptoms from the US elections?

    • jaime taurosangastre candelas

      No, I am here because my computer “bleeps” when there is a new comment, and I am doing some writing for a teaching project in another window. I can turn off the bleeping, but it is not too much of a distraction.

      {I have already been distracted enough to research the UK Uncut website after Dave Postles linked to it in favour of a demonstration outside Starbucks. But those UK Uncut people are so poorly-informed it is not worth commenting, particularly as Dave’s comment was a pure hi-jacking of a serious thread on mental health, on which I am not any expert, so do not wish to contribute}

      • Brumanuensis

        Bleep.

        • jaime taurosangastre candelas

          You have distracted me from explaining why an apparently simple fracture of a clavicle should additionally be investigated using a calibrated sphygmomanometer to record any blood pressure loss over time. You see, it is a long bone, and fracture close to the end may cause internal rupture of subclavian or cephalic veins due to lever action, particularly among younger people, and specifically among pre-pubescents liable to have greenstick fractures.

          I completely love the interaction between pure physics, mathematics and human biology. It is such a simple system, but for we stupid Emergency Medicine practitioners, that is all our colleagues allow for us. (We alternatively decry their committees to decide simple observations over weeks, when we just dive in because we have little time). Chemistry complicates matters, and that’s the skill. But you still need the maths and physics to understand the interactions, and that’s what I’m trying to teach.

          • Alexwilliamz

            I can now go to bed, I feel I will drop off as soon as my head hits the pillow. Thanks Doc.

    • Alexwilliamz

      One of the few articles not invested with one nation fatigue! My sadly banal existence means I am waiting for the tumble dryer to finish so I can put some wet washing in it. So kindly left behind by my wife before she disappeared to London for some conference or other.

      • Brumanuensis

        I have a load of washing on. I’m waiting for it to finish so I can hang it up to dry – it’s all shirts, you see. Also, I’m cooking dinner. I know, but I’ve had a busy day.

        • Alexwilliamz

          ha! Just finished making rice pudding for tomorrow’s tea, milk glut. We should turn our parallel lives into some kind exciting diary style book!

          • Brumanuensis

            Hm, to be honest ‘exciting’ might be a stretch. On that note, the washer has just finished its cycle. Joy unconfined.

          • Alexwilliamz

            Dryer also finished, changeover complete. I am now a free man.

          • Brumanuensis

            This is a special moment, Alex. Let us treasure it.

      • JoeDM

        That One Nation stuff is sooooo…… boring. I couldn’t bring myself to write a single critical comment. The zero comments on the couple I read seemed to say it all.

  • Alexwilliamz

    Come on Mark, it’s one minute past one…..

  • Brumanuensis

    Yeah, update already slow-poke.

  • Brumanuensis

    I hate to do this to Mark – please forgive me – but there is a dedicated Cardiff South and Penarth feed here: http://yourcardiff.walesonline.co.uk/2012/11/15/cardiff-south-and-penarth-by-election-live-blog/

  • franwhi

    I didnt know the guy in Corby was “Labour
    candidate Andy Sawford, son of Phil Sawford, former MP for nearby Kettering”. Too many of these family connections in the Labour Party if you ask me. Is this not a party that eschews the divine right to rule of successive generations ? Another MP’s privilege and salary inherited rather than earned.

    • http://www.facebook.com/colin.adkins.52 Colin Adkins

      I share your basic concern but the comments at this time are slightly churlish.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

      No, he was locally active and well known, and that’s why he was selected. And what about the Ewings in the SNP?

      • rekrab

        Wasn’t that Dallas Mike? LoL! hope your well!

        • Dave Postles

          Who is Dallas Mike?

  • charliegrove

    Checking figures, LDs got 5% in Failsworth west in 2008, near height of lab unpopularity. Don’t know anything about that area, but suggests it was never the part of Oldham they were targeting :)

  • AlanGiles

    ” we should already be considering Bristol to be the latest in a long line of independents elected as local mayors”

    And that is a bad thing?. When you think of some of the objects party politics has thrown up: Nadine Dorries, David Laws, Margaret Moran……. oh yes, terrible people, these independents!

    • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

      I know Bristol very well and have friends there – all of whom used to vote labour but no longer do so. Of those I’ve contacted, who’ve voted, all voted for Ferguson.

      Here’s* an interesting breakdown of the the voting pattern, ward by ward. The bottom ten wards for election turn-out are working class areas, once solid labour areas. It looks as if the working class are getting the message and returning the snub – Labour isn’t interested in them and they’re not interested in Labour.

      *http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Rumours-George-Ferguson-50-cent-mayor-vote/story-17337835-detail/story.html

      • aracataca

        As a great fan of the far left you may want to cast your eyes over the votes of TUSC, Respect etc in the by elections. It has been universally p***poor.

        Andrew Jordan, Socialist Labour, 235 votes, 1.21%- Cardiff
        Alex Davidson,Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts, 220 votes, 1.3%- Manchester
        Catherine Higgins, Respect, 182 votes, 1.1%- Manchester

        Proof, if any were needed, that there is no meaningful alternative to Labour. Reality check DS?

        • Dave Postles

          He may be traditional left, but his point stands. There is now even more widespread disillusionment with party politics. None seems to be offering any solutions for ordinary folk.

          • aracataca

            Do me a favour Dave. Voting for these tiny sects is like taking your voting slip and throwing it in the nearest bin. It’s time for the braying voices on the far left to take a reality check. They have no support worth talking about. At the very least they need to properly participate in the political debate inside the Labour Party particularly as these results today indicate that (in all likelihood) Labour is going to form the next government.

          • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

            “Voting for these tiny sects”

            Not sure who you’re referring to but my allegiance is to the National Health Action Party. Top five target seats in 2015: Cameron, Lansley, Hunt, Osborne, and Laws.

            It’s the way to go, my friend.

        • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

          Seriously mate, there are more important tasks for Labour supporters than producing misdirected “far left” jibes:

          Bristol now has an incumbent Mayor with a solid, long-term track record of successful regeneration and cultural projects*. He also has founded his own anti-politics party, the Bristol 1st party.

          He’s going to be a very difficult person to unseat. And following this success Bristol 1st may go on to field council and even parliamentary candidates.

          The low turn-out in Bristol’s traditional Labour heart-lands should be a major concern. You may feel Labour can do without its traditional supporters but this south of England result suggests otherwise.

          * http://www.bristol1st.com/about-george/

          • aracataca

            Of course Ferguson only resigned from the Fib Dems 6 months ago-not on any point of principle like tuition fees or the future of the NHS or the reduction in the top rate of tax.
            The only reason he resigned was because he knew the Fib Dems weren’t going to win in Bristol or anywhere else for that matter. This same ruse has been used by the Fib Dems in North Wales where a Fib Dem has stood as an ‘independent’ for the PCC post.
            What we are witnessing here is a new level of duplicity by the masters of political deceit- namely the Fib Dems.

    • aracataca

      These elections have been an absolute disaster for the Greens. Best showing 800 votes in Cardiff, 652 in Manchester and 378 in Corby. In Manchester they got half the vote of the BNP.As LL’s greatest afficionado of Britain’s favourite public schoolgirls,- Caroline Lucas and Natalie Bennet – can you tell us Alan why their result was so bad? Was it the completely undeliverable promises that did for them this time? I think we should be told.

      • AlanGiles

        What a typically childish crowing response from you William, Bill,
        Mr O’Connor or “aracataca” or whatever you are calling
        yourself today.

        Of course, if one wanted to be as puerile as you, you could point
        out that Labour is not short of a few public schoolgirls. Typical of
        your somewhat warped mind that it is Ok to be posh and privately
        educated if you say you are Labour, but nor for any other party -
        narrow minded, bigotted and rather typical of you.

        You try to taunt Dave Stone with references to the “far left”
        - which, I am sure will come as a great surprise to the doctors
        including Richard Taylor who are involved with the new NHS party, and
        you even presume to tell Dave how to vote, or rather how not to vote.
        I think you have delusions of grandeur amongst other things.

        In case you hadn’t noticed, all the elections took place yesterday
        in typical November weather conditions. The turn out in Manchester
        was the smallest since pre-war, hatrdly anybody was interestd in the
        PCC elections (one place in Gwent had virtually nobody turning up)
        Prescott lost, which must have surprised him.

        Sadly people can’t be bothered in by-elections, and all the
        parties including the Greens suffer as a result of this. I should
        have thought you would have been old enough to have realised all this
        for yourself, unless you are 16 like your pal on LL?.

        Labour can be very happy to have won Corby. Independents luckilly
        took quite a few of the PCC posts (a very good thing if you are
        against the party politicisation of the police service, as I am),
        however, Labour should be concerned that they couldn’t inspire more
        of their vote out in Manchester.

        Do we take it you are glad the BNP did so well in Manchester?. You
        are a very strange man, which might be worrying if you wasn’t frankly
        such a joke and wind-up merchant.

  • volcanopete

    Congratulations to Olly Martins the victor in Bedfordshire.Fantastic result.

  • http://www.facebook.com/colin.adkins.52 Colin Adkins

    I guess some Tories will still argue that there has be an absolute majority of all the union members to legitimise a strike ballot.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Graeme-Hancocks/1156294498 Graeme Hancocks

    Haven’t Labour won Bedfordshire in PCC election?

  • http://twitter.com/Ceilidhann Kayleigh Anne

    Are Lib Dem Press trying to out-do Ric Holden on the hilarity front?

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Graeme-Hancocks/1156294498 Graeme Hancocks

    Remarkable tweet from libdems given how badly they have done everywhere. Are they delusional? Perhaps they could adopt what used to be their campaign slogan – “Libdems – NOT winning here (or anywhere)!”.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

    Now we have lost yet another personality-driven mayoral election, can we officially take note and abandon this stupid idea for good? At least Hartlepool won’t be electing their monkey again….

  • http://www.gorsehill-labour.co.uk Mike Cordingley

    For the second successive election Tory flagship authority – Trafford in Gtr Manchester has voted Labour in the popular vote.
    #PCC results for Trafford- Lab 41.1% Tory 25.6% Lib Dem 14.4% Ind 11.7% UKIP 7.3%
    This has to be the number one target authority in North West for 2014. Can we have a little help now region, rather chasing last Lib Dems out of Labour strongholds?

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Graeme-Hancocks/1156294498 Graeme Hancocks

    Thanks for the blog. The final results give Labour a national lead over tories in Engalnd Wales (except London) of circa 6.5%. If London and Scotland are added to the equation then the 10%+ opinion polls lead is about right.

  • Dave Postles

    ‘So with 31 MPs, there are now more
    Co-operative Members of Parliament than there have ever been. 31 MPs to
    speak up for co-op polices, fight legal loan sharks and push for more
    support for credit unions and co-operative energy.’
    E-mail from Co-op Party this evening.

  • Brumanuensis

    Glad Andy Sawford won; not particularly bothered about the PCC results, but pleased by the Hartlepool vote, as well as the Lib Dem performance.

  • Daniel Speight

    Of course the win in Corby is pleasing, but I suspect in the coming weeks the focus will be on the success of the independents in both the PCC and the Bristol Mayor elections. Is this a very real sign of public disillusionment with politics and politicians in general? When the NEC does things like the Rotherham shortlist why should we expect anything else from the public.

  • Daniel Speight

    Of course the win in Corby is pleasing, but I suspect in the coming weeks the focus will be on the success of the independents in both the PCC and the Bristol Mayor elections. Is this a very real sign of public disillusionment with politics and politicians in general? When the NEC does things like the Rotherham shortlist why should we expect anything else from the public.

  • Daniel Speight

    Of course the win in Corby is pleasing, but I suspect in the coming weeks the focus will be on the success of the independents in both the PCC and the Bristol Mayor elections. Is this a very real sign of public disillusionment with politics and politicians in general? When the NEC does things like the Rotherham shortlist why should we expect anything else from the public.

  • Daniel Speight

    Of course the win in Corby is pleasing, but I suspect in the coming weeks the focus will be on the success of the independents in both the PCC and the Bristol Mayor elections. Is this a very real sign of public disillusionment with politics and politicians in general? When the NEC does things like the Rotherham shortlist why should we expect anything else from the public.

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