The 60 marginal seats Osborne could lose with his attack on working families

December 12, 2012 9:33 am

Several of this morning’s papers (including The Times – dropping the story in a Tory paper perchance?) have run with Labour research which indicates that the number of in work families receiving tax credits (and therefore being hit by what Labour are calling his “strivers tax” as tax credits face a real terms cut) significantly exceeds the size of the Tory majority in 60 of the most marginal Tory seats.

A Labour source told us this morning:

“George Osborne thinks he is playing a clever political game, but he could have cost the seats of dozens of his conservative colleagues. Everybody knows the next election will be a living standards election, George Osborne’s strivers tax is going to his thousands of working families in Tory marginals across the country.”

This certainly looks like Labour are planning on mounting a robust defence against Osborne’s welfare cuts bill.

We’ve crunched the numbers, and this bar chart below shows the scale of Osborne’s attack on in-work families in comparison with the relative electoral weakness of the Tories in the same seats (Click on the image to enlarge):

Targetseatsvstaxcredits

And if you want to see the specific numbers from any of the seats, we’ve published the table below:

Conservative-held marginal constituencies, and in-work families receiving tax credits
Constituency

 Majority (2010)

In-work families receiving tax credits (April 2012)

North Warwickshire

                          54

                                                                    6,800
Camborne and Redruth

                          66

                                                                    7,100
Thurrock

                          92

                                                                    8,500
Hendon

                         106

                                                                    8,100
Oxford West and Abingdon

                         176

                                                                    4,700
Cardiff North

                         194

                                                                    5,100
Sherwood

                         214

                                                                    6,900
Stockton South

                         332

                                                                    7,100
Lancaster and Fleetwood

                         333

                                                                    5,800
Broxtowe

                         389

                                                                    5,700
Truro and Falmouth

                         435

                                                                    6,300
Newton Abbot

                         523

                                                                    6,400
Amber Valley

                         536

                                                                    7,000
Wolverhampton South West

                         691

                                                                    5,800
Waveney

                         769

                                                                    8,000
Carlisle

                         853

                                                                    7,200
Morecambe and Lunesdale

                         866

                                                                    7,500
Weaver Vale

                         991

                                                                    5,600
Harrogate and Knaresborough

                      1,039

                                                                    6,100
Lincoln

                      1,058

                                                                    8,400
Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport

                      1,149

                                                                    7,700
Montgomeryshire

                      1,184

                                                                    5,400
Stroud

                      1,299

                                                                    6,300
Brighton, Kemptown

                      1,328

                                                                    5,600
Bedford

                      1,353

                                                                    7,700
Watford

                      1,425

                                                                    7,000
Dewsbury

                      1,526

                                                                    9,100
Warrington South

                      1,553

                                                                    6,800
Pudsey

                      1,659

                                                                    5,800
Enfield North

                      1,692

                                                                    7,000
Hove

                      1,868

                                                                    6,300
Corby

                      1,895

                                                                    9,300
Northampton North

                      1,936

                                                                    6,900
Brentford and Isleworth

                      1,958

                                                                    6,800
Hastings and Rye

                      1,993

                                                                    8,400
Halesowen and Rowley Regis

                      2,023

                                                                    6,800
Nuneaton

                      2,069

                                                                    7,200
Ipswich

                      2,079

                                                                    8,900
Blackpool North and Cleveleys

                      2,150

                                                                    7,200
Bury North

                      2,243

                                                                    6,700
St Albans

                      2,305

                                                                    3,800
Gloucester

                      2,420

                                                                    8,600
Wirral West

                      2,436

                                                                    4,100
Kingswood

                      2,445

                                                                    6,400
Hereford and South Herefordshire

                      2,481

                                                                    7,200
Erewash

                      2,501

                                                                    7,000
City of Chester

                      2,583

                                                                    5,800
Wyre Forest

                      2,643

                                                                    7,100
Weston-super-Mare

                      2,691

                                                                    7,900
Croydon Central

                      2,879

                                                                    7,400
Keighley

                      2,940

                                                                    7,000
Torridge and West Devon

                      2,957

                                                                    7,800
Worcester

                      2,982

                                                                    7,200
Winchester

                      3,048

                                                                    4,100
Cannock Chase

                      3,195

                                                                    8,200
South East Cornwall

                      3,220

                                                                    6,300
Bristol North West

                      3,274

                                                                    6,400
Aberconwy

                      3,398

                                                                    4,400
Harrow East

                      3,403

                                                                    6,300
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

                      3,423

                                                                    5,700
Notes: Tax Credit recipient families are rounded to nearest 100
Election data refers to 2010 General election, ignoring any subsequent by-elections
Sources: Electoral Comission, HMRC
  • John

    I think you can remove Corby from the list

  • markfergusonuk

    It’s indicative of the national 2010-2015 swing…

  • volcanopete

    I cannot see much support emanating from the 18-25 yr olds in 2015 for a party which promises no financial support at all,no benefit,no job and no home.Work camps are coming back instead,creating a generation of slaves.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Cameron/100001293790059 David Cameron

    Please don’t be so modest.”The 60 marginal seats”
    Every seat is marginal as long as “The Bullingdon Boy ” remains as Prime Minister.
    The Tories are in meltdown ,and they know it.

  • Jeremy_Preece

    Just as a matter of maths. Some of these are Tory majority over LibDems, and they are less likely to vote Labour I would have thought. While on the other hand, those majorities over Labour in second place, are very vulnerable for the Tories to loose.

Latest

  • Comment If politicians can’t enact the policies people actually want, the system is broken

    If politicians can’t enact the policies people actually want, the system is broken

    This week, Class released a new poll on the theme of fairness and inequality, which will nicely coincide with the debates at our conference this Saturday. Speaking of which, you should totally book a ticket for that as we’re down to the last few. Anyway, I find our polling particularly interesting (I mean, you’d hope I would) because its aim is to gauge public opinion on long-term issues, rather than responding to a given news story. Class polls provide a […]

    Read more →
  • Featured Scotland “I’m standing for First Minister of Scotland and I intend to win”: Jim Murphy joins Scottish Labour leadership race

    “I’m standing for First Minister of Scotland and I intend to win”: Jim Murphy joins Scottish Labour leadership race

    We now have three candidates for Scottish Labour leader, as Jim Murphy’s long-awaited candidacy has been confirmed. The Shadow International Development Secretary and former Scotland Secretary released a statement this evening, saying that his intention is to be Scottish Labour leader and First Minister: “I’m standing for First Minister of Scotland and I intend to win. I want to bring Scotland back together after the referendum. There is so much to be proud of in Scotland but so much we […]

    Read more →
  • Comment I’m not upset about Cameron’s refusal to wear a t-shirt – it’s everything else that gets me

    I’m not upset about Cameron’s refusal to wear a t-shirt – it’s everything else that gets me

    On Monday the news broke that David Cameron has repeatedly refused a request by Elle magazine to be photographed wearing a t-shirt. Why? Because on it, the t-shirt says “This is what a feminist looks like”. There have been a catalogue of ideas floated since about why he might not have done it – “It’s only a mag campaign” or “You shouldn’t dress up the Prime Minister”, say. But really, it’s not important that it was a request from a […]

    Read more →
  • News Scotland Anas Sarwar: We shouldn’t allow the SNP to “talk left and act right”

    Anas Sarwar: We shouldn’t allow the SNP to “talk left and act right”

    Interim Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar may have formally declared that he will not be entering the race to succeed Johann Lamont, but that has not stopped him analysing where Labour have failed in Scotland over the past few years. In an interview the the Huffington Post, Sarwar identifies the perception that the SNP are more left wing as a problem – even if that belief is misplaced. He said: “The SNP have been allowed to wear our clothes and talk left […]

    Read more →
  • Comment PMQs verdict: What have we learned? That Westminster has tried and failed to control immigration?

    PMQs verdict: What have we learned? That Westminster has tried and failed to control immigration?

    You could tell early on that PMQs was going to be…different, this week. The Prime Minister was sat in his seat like a coiled spring. On the Labour benches opposite, Harriet Harman was wearing a t-shirt reading “This is what a feminist looks like”. Cameron had refused five times to be photographed wearing the same t-shirt, so it was clearly intended to rile him. In reality it simply looked like a stunt, and appeared to have no impact on the […]

    Read more →