Labour gets biggest ever poll lead with YouGov

February 5, 2013 8:46 am

Today’s YouGov poll has Labour 15 points ahead of the Tories, the biggest Labour lead the pollster has ever recorded for Labour since it was founded in 2002. Labour are on 45% compared to 30% for the Tories. The Lib Dems are on 11% with UKIP on 9%.

In a General Election – that would give Labour a majority of 126.

The poll also shows a declining percentage of voters think that cuts are being carried out fairly, and a greater percentage of voters thinking that cuts are too deep and too quick. The blame also seems to be shifting from the last Labour government to the current Coalition government when it comes to cuts – a few weeks ago the gap was 12 points, now (after the recent GDP announcement) it’s just 5 points.

  • James Jacobs

    If anyone thinks this will be the 2015 election result they’re living in a fantasy world

  • Jeremy_Preece

    It is always easy to read too much into opinion polls, particualry when there is no General Election in the next mont or so. However we have to look at overall trends, and I think that it is safe to say:
    1. There was a brief bounce in the polls for cameron after his Euro vote and anti EU speech
    2. Cameron’s bounce was very short lived, and now seems to be over. We can speculate that he has shot one of his best bullets and that it failed to deliver, but that would be a bit premature.
    3. We can see that Labour has a good lead over the Tories. However at this stage of a term it is a lead that could evaporate as a GE draws near, and so at this stage we cannot say that Labour is certainly favourite to win the next election.
    4. UKIP seem not to have continued to draw ahead for third place, and that the LibDems are either neck and neck, or slightly ahead of UKIP.
    It is very complex, and recent yougov detailed polls suggested that the issue of Europe is not even uppermost in the minds of many who now say that they would vote UKIP at the next election. Therefore I would say that UKIP are taking over the protest vote which must slide away from the LibDems by the fact that the latter are part of the government.
    For what it is worth, I know that the LibDems are going to get a hiding nationally, but I am beginning to think that they could actually hold up in certain strongholds.
    Overall my biggest concern is that as they say “oppositions don’t win elections but governments loose them”. We may be dependant on the present double – tripple dip recession in order to stay ahead. Trade cycles are such that in spite of any government prolonging of the horrendous recession, eventually figures have to pick up and this pick probably must happen by the next GE.
    Therefore the real questions what would these poll figures look like of there was an upturn in the eceonomy, or even if it just isn’t quite so bad as we thought. Would the electorate swallow Cameron’s predictable line that he policies were at last working and that we should’t “throw it all away” with a Labour vote. If that happens and we are still points ahead then we feel that it is in the bag and we are a long way from that.
    With the UK about to loose the AAA credit rating, and entering a tripple dip recession, why are we between 5 – 15 points ahead at this stage? Should we not be 20 – 25points ahead so that come the election, when 10-15 points melt away in favour of the government of the day (which they tend to do) then we know that we are still on course to win.
    Finally, what these figures do not tell us is that the majority of people in this country are now unlikely to vote because they actually believe that all politicians cannot be trusted and there is nothing between them. “They are all the same” is not about policiy as muc as a statement about integrity. And this is a major blow to democracy.

  • NT86

    Hopefully the gap will continue to close on questions regarding the economy. The stitch up by the coalition and large sections of the media had most people believing that public spending brought the economy down. It’s lunacy to think that you treat a nation’s economy in the same way you would a household budget.

    Good public spending is to invest for the future and stimulate growth. I guess when austerity starts hitting Middle England, then they’ll realise how wrong they were to believe the lies behind spending cuts.

    • Jeremy_Preece

      Hello there to a fellow Keynes fan.
      Yes, cutting at the rate and depth of this government choked off a fragile recovery and we have double dip recession and endless downward amendments to economic forcasts. Along came the olympics and gave us a boost and we climbed out of recession. The olymic effect was temporary and so when its effects ended back we slide into recession.
      It does seem rather obvious.
      However to muddy the waters, a lot of the media has helped to peddle the Tory lies that:
      1. The whole world wide recession was somehow Labours doing, so by inference if the Tories were in it would have been different. Worse, history has airbrushed out Brown’s response and leadership after the crash when the US and other countries were working out how to respond.
      2. Labour was the party that was lax on bank control, while actually the Tories opposed any banking controls
      3. Now we have a huge muddle about the deficit and the public debt and “facts” that Cameron is saying that they have reduced this all by 25% while there is other evidence that the debt has increased.

    • Octavian

      While the Big Lie is being repeated (that public spending is at fault), Labour MPs are too scared to actually confront the Tories. There appears to be a significant spine-deficiency. But the real problem is that there’s no difference between Labour and the Tories on anything. I’m getting sick and tired of watching Labour MPs say exactly the same as the coalition and then when asked what THEY would do, either they claim it’s too early to commit (which is the sign of cowards) or they back up the Coalition’s position. Am struggling to justify voting Labour this time. It would be the first time in 40 years I’ve not voted Labour.

Latest

  • News Polling Labour and Tories will win the same number of seats, says top pollster

    Labour and Tories will win the same number of seats, says top pollster

    Most political commentators seem to be hedging their bets a little with their predictions for next year’s election, but none have gone quite so far as respected pollster Peter Kellner (President of YouGov) who reckons that Labour and the Tories will win exactly the same number of seats. In the new copy of Prospect, Kellner raises no eyebrows when he says: “My own current guess is that both Labour and the Conservatives will fall short of outright victory.” Neither is it […]

    Read more →
  • Featured We need Graf and Grafters

    We need Graf and Grafters

    As my colleague Conor has pointed out, there is quite a lot of good news coming out of the latest Ashcroft polling for Labour. But there are some worrying messages too. The polling in Southampton Itchen is much too close for comfort as was the Thurrock polling in a previous round. Equally worry are the reports from voters of lack of activity they are seeing (or possibly noticing) from political parties. Only 16% are saying they have had any contact […]

    Read more →
  • News Labour will revoke energy companies’ licences if they breach agreed conditions, says Flint

    Labour will revoke energy companies’ licences if they breach agreed conditions, says Flint

    Today Caroline Flint MP, Shadow Energy and Climate Change Secretary, will lay out the difference between Labour’s and the Conservatives approach to energy. As part of Labour’s summer campaign, Flint is set to give a speech in which she will reveal new figures that show since 2010 household energy bills have risen four times as fast as wages and twice as fast as inflation. She will say that the Government has not been effective in ensuring that energy companies are held […]

    Read more →
  • Comment Will the Tory MP who wants to charge patients to use the NHS debate me?

    Will the Tory MP who wants to charge patients to use the NHS debate me?

    Earlier this week, Channel 4’s “Dispatches” asked if we are addicted to our doctors. It highlighted the increasing pressure the NHS is under and some of the costs associated with those pressures. My opponent in Bristol North West – Tory MP Charlotte Leslie – said that, in respect of A&E and GP surgery appointments that are deemed unnecessary, that “…we do need a charge I think to just enable people to think a little bit about what their use of […]

    Read more →
  • Comment Free information and free broadband – business policies of the future?

    Free information and free broadband – business policies of the future?

    Us folk in business are a straightforward lot. Yes, we like big picture ideas and visions of the future – but we also need real-life, practical policies and plans. And with nine months to go until the general election the business community is hungry for greater clarity on what Labour business policy will actually be. The latest offering from Policy Network, Owning The Future, edited by Chuka Umunna, is rich in big ideas about Britain’s role in the global economy. […]

    Read more →